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The Science of Nature -     

The economics of climate change in agriculture

This paper presents a conceptual frameworkof the impact of climate change onagriculture. It assumes that climatechange will result in a fertilizationeffect and a shift of agro-ecologicalconditions away from the Equator towardsthe Poles. The agro-ecological shift islikely to reduce yield because of reducedacreage and the fertilization effect willincrease yield. The aggregate effectdepends on whichever of the two dominates. The overall effect of climate change may beless significant than its distributionaleffects and the results are consistentwith previous empirical studies. Theimpact of climate change depends on itspace. Faster changes in climate willresult in higher cost. The assessment ofthe cost has to consider that climatechange is a dynamic phenomenon that mayrequire continuous adjustment. Environmental regulation that emphasizesconservation may increase cost ofadjustment and environmental policiesshould emphasize adaptation andflexibility.     

Relationship between abundance of rodents and damage to agricultural crops

Developing a relationship between pest abundance and damage to crops is essential for the calculation of economic injury levels (EIL) leading to informed management decisions. The crop modelling framework, APSIM, was used to simulate the impact of mouse damage on yield loss on wheat where a long-term dataset on the density of mice was available (1983–2003). The model was calibrated using results from field trials where wheat plants were hand clipped to imitate mouse damage. The grazing effect of mice was estimated using the population density, daily intake per mouse and the proportion of wheat grain and plant tissue in the diet to determine yield loss. The mean yield loss caused by mice was 12.4% (±5.4S.E.; range −0.5 to 96%). There were 7/21 years when yield loss was >5%. A damage/abundance relationship was constructed and a sigmoidal curve explained 97% of variation when accounting for different trajectories of mouse densities from sowing to harvest. The majority of damage occurred around emergence of the crop when mouse densities were >100 mice ha⁻¹. This is the first time that field data on mouse density and a crop simulation model have been combined to estimate yield loss. The model examines the efficacy of baiting and how to estimate EILs. Because the broadscale application of zinc phosphide is cheap and effective, the EIL is very low (<1% yield loss). The APSIM model is highly flexible and could be used for other vertebrate pests in a range of crops or pastures to develop density/damage relationships and to assist with management.     

Modifying traditional and high-input agroecosystems for optimization of microbial symbioses: a case study of dry beans in Costa Rica

Optimization of symbioses between plants and microbes has been suggested as method for enhancing nutrient uptake in low-input agroecosystems. In generall symbioses may be maximized through: (1) the selection of plant cultivars responsive to symbiontss; (2) ionoculation with highly efficient strains of symbionts; (3) habitat modification to encourage symbioses. These methods were tested under a traditional, slash mulch, ‘frijol tapado’ en agroecosystem and/or a high-input (‘espequeado’) system to increase nodulation and vesicular-arbuscular mycorrbizae (VAM) of beans with the following results: (1) Under the espequeado system (modified by the exclusion of fertilizer application), four cultivars of indeterminate, vining dry beans (Phaseolus vulgaris) nodulated more than two determinate, bush varieties, especially under low available soil phosphorus (P). VAM levels were not statistically different under these conditions. (2) Under the tapado system, pelletization with rock phosphate and Rhizobium inoculum did not significantly change nodule biomass, dinitrogen (N₂)-fixation or yield. (3) Without P application, neither nodulation nor % VAM were significantly different between the two systems of bean production. However, as applied P increased, differences in %VAM of the two systems became significant, decreasing more sharply with increasing P in the tapado system.The tripartite symbiosis of beans can be influenced by various factors such as cultivar, nutrient application and production system. Although traditional varieties and systems may optimize certain microbial symbioses, the quantity of the symbiosis appears to depend on a number of complex factors. An intermediate agricultural technology, the mixing of traditional and modern, is exemplified here by the application of moderate levels of fertilizer to the tradional, tapado systems. This intermediate approach promises to decrease inputs in comparison to the espequedo system, as well as the need for shift cultivation, but long-term testing is needed.