Accounting for Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Case Study of Hector's Dolphin Mortality due to Gillnet Entanglement

Abstract: Uncertainties about biological data and human effects often delay decisions on management of endangered species. Some decision makers argue that uncertainty about the risk posed to a species should lead to precautionary decisions, whereas others argue for delaying protective measures until there is strong evidence that a human activity is having a serious effect on the species. We have developed a method that incorporates uncertainty into the estimate of risk so that delays in action can be reduced or eliminated. We illustrate our method with an actual situation of a deadlock over how to manage Hector's dolphin ( Cephalorhychus hectori ). The management question is whether sufficient risk is posed to the dolphins by mortalities in gillnets to warrant regulating the fisheries. In our quantitative risk assessment, we use a population model that incorporates both demographic ( between-individual) and environmental ( between-year) stochasticity. We incorporate uncertainty in estimates of model parameters by repeatedly running the model for different combinations of survival and reproductive rates. Each value is selected at random from a probability distribution that represents the uncertainty in estimating that parameter. Before drawing conclusions, we perform sensitivity analyses to see whether model assumptions alter conclusions and to recommend priorities for future research. In this example, uncertainty did not alter the conclusion that there is a high risk of population decline if current levels of gillnet mortality continue. Sensitivity analyses revealed this to be a robust conclusion. Thus, our analysis removes uncertainty in the scientific data as an excuse for inaction.     

Assessing the Geographic Representativeness of Genebank Collections: the Case of Bolivian Wild Potatoes

Abstract: Genebank collection databases can be used for ecogeographical studies under the assumption that the accessions are a geographically unbiased sample. We evaluated the representativeness of a collection of wild potatoes from Bolivia and defined and assessed four types of bias: species, species-area, hotspot, and infrastructure. Species bias is the sampling of some species more often than others. Species-area bias is a sampling that is disproportionate to the total area in which a species is found. Hotspot bias is the disproportionate sampling of areas with high levels of diversity. Infrastructure bias is the disproportionate sampling of areas near roads and towns. Each of these biases is present in the Bolivian wild potato collection. The infrastructure bias was strong: 60% of all wild potato accessions were collected within 2 km of a road, as opposed to 22%, if collections had been made randomly. This analysis can serve as a guide for future collecting trips. It can also provide baseline information for the application of genebank data in studies based on geographic information systems.     

Heavy Extinctions of Forest Avifauna in Singapore: Lessons for Biodiversity Conservation in Southeast Asia

Abstract: The consequences of rapid rainforest clearance on native avifauna are poorly understood. In Southeast Asia, Singapore, a newly developing country, has had 95% of its native lowland rainforest cleared. Most of the rainforest was lost in the mid- to late-nineteenth century. We compared avifauna checklists from 1923, 1949, and 1998 to determine the extent of extinctions between 1923 and 1998 in Singapore. Of 203 diurnal bird species, 65 were extirpated in Singapore in the past 75 years. Four of these species were nonforest- dependent species, whereas 61 (94%) were forest bird species dependent on the primary or old secondary forest to survive. Twenty-six forest bird species became extinct between 1923 and 1949, whereas 35 forest species disappeared after 1949. We compared the body lengths, feeding guilds, and vertical feeding zones between extinct and extant forest bird species to determine whether extinction patterns were dependent on these characteristics. Larger forest bird species went extinct between 1923 and 1949. Body sizes, however, did not affect the loss of forest bird species between 1949 and 1998. We observed high losses of insectivorous birds; the insectivore-carnivore and insectivore-granivore guilds lost> 80% of the species present in 1923. The highest losses were among birds that fed in the canopy. None of the forest bird species are currently common (>100 individuals/species) within Singapore. Our study shows that more than half the forest avifauna became locally extinct after extensive deforestation. Based on this fact, the countries within Southeast Asia should reconsider their heavy deforestation practices.     

Poisoned plusiines: toxicity of milkweed latex and cardenolides to some generalist caterpillars

Summary. Larvae of Trichoplusia ni Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) that ingested latex from Asclepias curassavica L. (Asclepiadaceae) often regurgitated and convulsed with spasms before becoming immobile and unresponsive. Some larvae required over a day to recover sufficiently to feed. Latices from four other plant species in three families were all deterrent, but none caused detectable poisoning. The toxicity of A. curassavica latex was evidently due to cardenolides because pure cardenolides had similar effects when ingested by T. ni. Other species of noctuid caterpillars (Rachiplusia ou Guenée, Anagrapha falcifera Kirby, and Autographa precationis Guenée) sometimes also suffered spasms and temporary immobility when fed A. curassavica latex. A more distantly related noctuid, Spodoptera ornithogalli, was deterred by the latex, but showed no overt physiological responses at the dosage tested. T. ni larvae failed to develop on intact leaves of A. curassavica, on leaves with latex canals deactivated by midrib severance, and on excised leaves. Similarly, larvae reared on excised A. syriaca L. leaves to the final instar died when transferred to A. curassavica leaves with either intact or severed midribs. The final instar larvae sometimes suffered from spasms and immobility even when confined on leaves with depressurized canal systems. Evidently, cardenolides stored outside the latex system suffice to poison larvae. We conclude that cardenolides in A. curassavica have potent physiological effects on some generalist caterpillars and that the presence of these compounds both inside and outside laticifers effectively protects the plant. Received 30 June 1999; accepted 18 October 1999     

养活九十亿人

本世纪期间,技术进展已经使农作物生产率发生了革命,但农作物产率的提高已经开始放慢,而世界人口却继续增长.土地退化和水资源的压力是对非常需要的土地生产率提高的严重障碍.满足21世纪全球食品需要将要求一致的人口控制政策,推进可持续消费,和大大提高我们对土地、水及其它自然资源的使用效率.本文提供了对这些问题的前瞻性分析和解决这些问题的建议.     

Human impacts on methane emission from mangrove ecosystems in India

This study deals with the emission of methane in relation to changing environmental conditions and human impact, in three mangrove ecosystems of south India. Time-varying fluxes of methane adopting the close chamber technique were used to estimate CH₄ emission from an unpolluted site (Pichavaram mangroves) and two polluted sites viz. (1) Ennore Creek mangroves (affected by fertilizer effluents and crude oil discharges) and (2) Adyar estuary mangroves (affected by the discharges of organic and industrial wastes), covering monthly and seasonal variations. The results indicate annual average CH₄ emissions of 7.4, 5.02 and 15.4 mg m⁻² h⁻¹ from the sediment–water interface of the Pichavaram, Ennore Creek and Adyar estuary respectively. Emission characteristics obtained at Pichavaram mangroves represent a natural variability with changing physico-chemical factors, whereas the emission characteristics at Ennore Creek and Adyar estuary mangroves show anthropogenic influence. Several environmental factors such as oxygen availability, organic matter, soil physical and chemical properties, in addition to human-mediated interventions have been identified as influencing emission rates in the mangrove ecosystems. Preliminary CH₄ emission estimates for the mangrove ecosystems along the Indian sub- continent and the tropical and subtropical coastline of the world by linear extrapolation based on surface area range from 0.05 to 0.37 and 2.8 to 19.25 Tg CH₄ year⁻¹ respectively. Our results also highlight the impact of human activities on future emission of methane from the mangrove ecosystems. Received: 3 March 1999 / Accepted: 14 September 1999     

The Effect of Vaccinium vitis-idaea on Properties of Mountain-Meadow Soil under Alpine Lichen Heath

Russian Journal of Ecology - Abstract—The study of the effect of mycorrhiza symbiosis on the transformation of carbon and nitrogen compounds in soils is important in view of the necessity to...     

Framing of Geoengineering Affects Support for Climate Change Mitigation

The growing recognition that climate change mitigation alone will be inadequate has led scientists and policymakers to discuss climate geoengineering. An experiment with a US sample found, contrary to previous research, that reading about geoengineering did not reduce conservatives’ skepticism about the existence of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, depending on how it is framed, geoengineering can reduce support for mitigation among both conservatives and non-conservatives. When geoengineering is framed as a major solution, people worry less about climate change, leading to reduced mitigation support. When framed as disastrous, people perceived geoengineering as riskier, also leading to a decrease in mitigation support. A more moderate framing of geoengineering as a partial solution is less susceptible to moral hazard effects. Overall, results suggest that geoengineering will not lessen political polarization over anthropogenic climate change, and could undercut support for mitigation efforts. Instead, framing geoengineering as a small piece to solving a big puzzle seems to be the best strategy to weaken this potential moral hazard.