MODELING SEDIMENT AND PHOSPHORUS LOSSES IN AN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED TO MEET TMDLs1

ABSTRACT: This paper studies the effectiveness of alternative farm management strategies at improving water quality to meet Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) in agricultural watersheds. A spatial process model was calibrated using monthly flow, sediment, and phosphorus (P) losses (1994 to 1996) from Sand Creek watershed in south‐central Minnesota. Statistical evaluation of predicted and observed data gave r² coefficients of 0.75, 0.69, and 0.49 for flow (average 4.1 m³/s), sediment load (average 0.44 ton/ha), and phosphorus load (average 0.97 kg/ha), respectively. The calibrated model was used to evaluate the effects of conservation tillage, conversion of crop land to pasture, and changes in phosphorus fertilizer application rate on pollutant loads. TMDLs were developed for sediment and P losses based on existing water quality standards and guidelines. Observed annual sediment and P losses exceeded these TMDLs by 59 percent and 83 percent, respectively. A combination of increased conservation tillage, reduced application rates of phosphorus fertilizer, and conversion of crop land to pasture could reduce sediment and phosphorus loads by 23 percent and 20 percent of existing loads, respectively. These reductions are much less than needed to meet TMDLs, suggesting that control of sediment using buffer strips and control of point sources of phosphorus are needed for the remaining reductions.     

TEMPORAL CHANGES IN THE YADKIN RIVER FLOW VERSUS SUSPENDED SEDIMENT CONCENTRATION RELATIONSHIP1

ABSTRACT: Dynamic linear models (DLM) and seasonal trend decomposition (STL) using local regression, or LOESS, were used to analyze the 50‐year time series of suspended sediment concentrations for the Yadkin River, measured at the U.S. Geological Survey station at Yadkin College, North Carolina. A DLM with constant trend, seasonality, and a log₁₀ streamflow regressor provided the best model to predict monthly mean log₁₀ suspended sediment concentrations, based on the forecast log likelihood. Using DLM, there was evidence (odds approximately 69:1) that the log₁₀ streamflow versus log₁₀ suspended sediment concentration relationship has changed, with an approximate 20 percent increase in the log₁₀ streamflow coefficient over the period 1981 to 1996. However, sediment concentrations in the Yadkin River have decreased during the decade of the 1990s, which has been accompanied by a concomitant increase in streamflow variability. Although STL has been shown to be a versatile trend analysis technique, DLM is shown to be more suitable for discovery and inference of structural changes (trends) in the model coefficient describing the relationship between flow and sediment concentration.     

TRANSIENT RESPONSE FUNCTIONS FOR CONJUNCTIVE WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN,IDAHO1

ABSTRACT: Increasing demands on western water are causing a mounting need for the conjunctive management of surface water and ground water resources. Under western water law, the senior water rights holder has priority over the junior water rights holder in times of water shortage. Water managers have been reluctant to conjunctively manage surface water and ground water resources because of the difficulty of quantification of the impacts to surface water resources from ground water stresses. Impacts from ground water use can take years to propagate through an aquifer system. Prediction of the degree of impact to surface water resources over time and the spatial distribution of impacts is very difficult. Response functions mathematically describe the relationship between a unit ground water stress applied at a specific location and stream depletion or aquifer water level change elsewhere in the system. Response functions can be used to help quantify the spatial and temporal impacts to surface water resources caused by ground water pumping. This paper describes the theory of response functions and presents an application of transient response functions in the Snake River Plain, Idaho. Transient response functions can be used to facilitate the conjunctive management of surface and ground water not only in the eastern Snake River Plain basin, but also in similar basins throughout the western United States.     

The effects of parental altruism on the governance of family‐managed firms

We draw on the economic, corporate governance, and family business literatures to explain why the effects of family on family firms makes this governance form theoretically distinct from those of public and private non‐family firms. Our thesis is that parental altruism, when combined with private ownership and owner‐management, influences the ability of the firm's owner‐manager to exercise self‐control, which, in turn, can expose some family firms to conflicts rooted in the agency threats of moral hazard, hold‐up, and adverse selection. We then discuss why some other family firms are able to minimize these dark side threats and thereby attain altruism's brighter side. Finally, we discuss how altruism's influence changes over time as ownership becomes dispersed among family members and across generations. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Toward a psychological and cultural model of downsizing

Organizational downsizing is often counterproductive and applied irrespective of past financial performance. The popularity of this tactic leads to the question of whether an executive's propensity to downsize is linked to characteristics such as uncertainty avoidance and risk tolerance, which can be examined at either an individual or societal level. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Linking field experiments to long-term simulation of impacts of nitrogen deposition on heathlands and moorlands

The results from three long-term field manipulation studies of the impacts of increased nitrogen deposition (0–120 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1) on lowland and upland heathlands in the UK were compared, to test if common responses are observed. Consistent increases in Calluna foliar N content and decreases in litter C:N ratios were found across all sites, while increases in N leaching were not observed at any site over the range 0–80 kg ha^?1 yr^?1. However, the response of Calluna biomass did vary between sites, possibly reflecting site differences in nutrient status and management histories. Five versions of a simulation model of heathland responses to N were developed, each reflecting different assumptions about the fate and turnover of soil N. Model outputs supported the deduction from mass balance calculations at two of the field sites that N additions have resulted in an increase in immobilisation; the latter was needed to prevent the model overestimating measured N leaching. However, this version of the model significantly underestimated Calluna biomass. Model versions, which included uptake of organic N by Callunaand re-mobilisation of N from the soil organic store provided some improvement in the fit between modelled and field biomass data, but re-mobilisation also led to an overestimation of N leaching. Quantification of these processes and their response to increased N deposition are therefore critical to interpreting experimental data and predicting the long-term impacts of atmospheric deposition on heathlands and moorlands.     

Detecting the signal of atmospheric N deposition in recent national-scale vegetation change across Britain

Model estimates of NO_y and NH_x deposition across Britain for 1996 (5 km square resolution) were applied as explanatory variables to account for national-scale, fine-grained changes in plant species composition between 1990 and 1998. Plant species data were recorded from up to 27 fixed plots located within a stratified random sample of 596 1 km². The response variable was a cover-weighted Ellenberg fertility score for each plot. Analyses were carried out separately for woodlands, semi-natural grasslands and heaths/bogs. Most of the variation in the botanical response variable occurred between plots within squares and so could not be explained by the model deposition data. NH_x deposition estimates accounted for significant, but small components of between 1 km² variation in the change in Ellenberg score in grasslands (5.6%) and heath/bogs (9.8%) but not woodlands. NO_y deposition estimates were not significantly associated with vegetation change. Linear models provided the best fit and the slope of the relationship was lower for heath/bogs than grasslands. Further signal attribution at sub-kilometre square scales requires the development of fine-grained models of N deposition that can be generalised across regional sampling domains.     

Modeling remediation time using natural attenuation at a dry‐cleaner site

Contaminants from dry‐cleaning sites, primarily tetrachloroethene (PCE), trichloroethene (TCE), cis‐dichloroethene (cis‐DCE), and vinyl chloride (VC), have become a major concern because of the limited funds and regulatory programs to address them. Thus, natural attenuation and its effectiveness for these sites needs to be evaluated as it might provide a less costly alternative to other remediation methods. In this research, data from a site in Texas were analyzed and modeled using the Biochlor analytical model to evaluate remediation times using natural attenuation. It was determined that while biodegradation and source decay were occurring at the site, the resulting attenuation rates were not adequate to achieve cleanup in a reasonable time frame without additional source remediation or control strategies. Cleanup times exceeded 100 years for all constituents at the site boundary and 800 years at the source for PCE, assuming cleanup levels of 0.005 mg/L for PCE and TCE and 0.07 mg/L and 0.002 mg/L for cis‐DCE and VC, respectively. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

End‐state land uses,sustainably protective systems,and risk management: A challenge for remediation and multigenerational stewardship

This article discusses creating a sustainably protective engineered and human management system in perpetuity for sites with long‐lived radiological and chemical hazards. This is essential at this time because the federal government is evaluating its property as assets and attempting to reduce its holdings, while seeking to assure that health and ecosystems are not put at risk. To assist those who have a stake in the remediation, management, and stewardship of these and analogous privately owned sites, this article discusses current end‐state planning by reviewing the federal government's accelerated efforts to reduce its footprint and how those efforts relate to sustainability. The article also provides a list of questions organized around six elements of risk management and primary, secondary, and tertiary disease and injury prevention. Throughout the article, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is used as an example of an organization that seeks to reduce its footprint, manage its budget, and be a steward of the sites that it is responsible for. However, the approach and questions are appropriate for land controlled by the Department of Defense (DOD), the General Services Administration (GSA), and other public and private owners of sites with residual contamination. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Job level risk assessment using task level strain index scores: a pilot study.

This paper explores 2 methods of modifying the Strain Index (SI) to assess the ergonomic risk of multi-task jobs. Twenty-eight automotive jobs (15 cases and 13 controls) were studied. The first method is based on the maximum task SI score, and the second method is modeled on the NIOSH Composite Lifting Index (CLI) algorithm, named cumulative assessment of risk to the distal upper extremity (CARD). Significant odds ratios of 11 (CI 1.7-69) and 24 (CI 2.4-240) were obtained using the modified maximum task and CARD, respectively. This indicates that modification of the SI may be useful in determining the risk of distal upper extremity injury associated with a multi-task job.