An agent-based model for simulating trading of multi-species fisheries quota

Individual transferable quotas (ITQs) are increasingly seen as a way to make fisheries more profitable and halt over-capitalisation. ITQs allocate to users of a resource a share of a total allowable catch (TAC) which they are free to use, lease, or sell. We outline an approach to modelling the effect of an ITQ system in a multi-species, multi-sector fishery and apply it to the Coral Reef Fin Fish Fishery (CRFFF) in Queensland, Australia. An ITQ model, based on the assumption that operators seek to maximize profits, simulates the use of tradeable quota units by operators in the fishery, taking account of the initial quota allocation to operators, seasonal fish prices and individual operator variable costs, their fishing efficiency and experience, and constraints on vessel movements. Rationalization of the fishery is predicted to occur under an ITQ system for the CRFFF, which will lead to reductions in effort, increases in profits, and changes over time in quota prices. The ecological consequences of transferable quota in the multi-species fishery are seen in the catch and discard levels of the less profitable species, even though a TAC was set. This had flow-on effects on biomass. For example, simulations showed that the TAC for the primary target species, coral trout, was used more fully than that for a less valuable target species, red throat emperor, and that this was achieved through increased discarding of red throat emperor. Catches of both coral trout and red throat emperor that were derived from the model were higher than those recently observed in the fishery. The effort predicted by the model, however, closely approximated the actual effort observed in the fishery following implementation of ITQ management.     

Coping with accelerating socio-technical systems

In 1997 a workshop was held on the subject of how to cope with accelerating technologies. These are industries such as aviation, air traffic control and biotechnology, amongst others, where the rate of technological development is significant. A number of papers were presented from a range of viewpoints and in a variety of different industrial contexts. The papers ranged from theoretical models to help understand the process of acceleration and its impact on organisational learning, to practical analyses of future potential risks in specific accelerating industries such as air traffic control. The aim of the papers and the workshop as a whole was to provide insight into the problems associated with accelerating technologies, and thereby derive measures to control or cope with such acceleration. The problems arising from acceleration, as predicted by the theoretical models and evidenced by experiences in accelerating industries (e.g. aviation) are manifold. Two examples of particular problems are unforeseen risks in an industry (a lack of forward vision), and a failure to learn adequately (i.e. in time) from incidents occurring in an organisation (a lack of constructive hindsight). There is also an incipient danger of society being driven by technology rather than being led by social needs. Even if each technology ultimately becomes ‘ultra-safe’, it will nevertheless have its own ‘event horizon’, limiting useful further progress. Each of the papers from the workshop is summarised and integrated into a three-part synopsis of the workshop. This covers the context of accelerating technologies, modelling their impacts, and deriving coping strategies. Four of the papers are included in their entirety as separate papers in their own right in this special issue of Safety Science.     

Effects of dyadic duration on the relationship between leader behavior perceptions and follower outcomes

This research focused on the role of dyadic duration, the amount of time a subordinate has worked for the same supervisor, in leadership dynamics. Specifically, a field study of engineering personnel examined dyadic duration as a moderator of the relationships between supervisory leadership behavior and subordinates' attitudes and behavior. Moderated regression analysis revealed that the length of time a subordinate had served under the same supervisor influenced the relationship between supportive and directive leader behaviors and follower performance. Implications of these findings were discussed, focusing on the exchange process between individual leaders and followers.     

Gastroschisis and omphalocele: Prenatal diagnosis and perinatal management

Obstetric ultrasonography has made the prenatal diagnosis of gastroschisis and omphalocele more common. We present illustrative cases 2nd review the ultrasonographic features. Because of the increased risk of concomitant abnormalities (including trisomies) with omphalocele, full evaluation is indicated when this diagnosis is suspected. Recent perinatal approaches to delivery have favoured caesarean section. without scientific evidence that outcome is improved. Our experience. as well as a review of the literature, suggests that the outcome for vaginally delivered infants is acceptable. A prospective study of this question is needed.     

Goitre and environmental iodine deficiency in the UK — Derbyshire: A review

Endemic goitre was prevalent in the population of Derbyshire in the UK for many centuries until it declined from the 1930s. A contemporary medical survey showed that endemicity of goitre was particularly higher in the Carboniferous limestone areas of the Derbyshire-Peak District. Unlike classical goitrous areas of the world, where the distribution of goitre has been found to be related to the iodine content in the environment, there is no such relationship reported for the Derbyshire-Peak District area. The present study reviews the presence of endemic goitre in this area with reference to iodine in different environmental media using past and present data. In comparison with the world average values, the iodine contents in the soil and sediment in the Peak District are not deficient, but compared to England, Wales and Scotland averages, these levels are low. As no information on the mobility and bioavailability of iodine of this area is available, a cautious approach is necessary before any assumption is made on the aetiology of endemic goitre. The study also discusses some hypotheses relating to the possible cause of endemic goitre in the limestone areas. Further research needs are suggested depending on the land use and geochemistry of the Peak District to determine the underlying causes of the former endemic goitre in this area.     

Predicting ozone levels

This paper presents a statistical model that is capable of predicting ozone levels from precursor concentrations and meteorological conditions during daylight hours in the Shuaiba Industrial Area (SIA) of Kuwait. The model has been developed from ambient air quality data that was recorded for one year starting from December 1994 using an air pollution mobile monitoring station. The functional relationship between ozone level and the various independent variables has been determined by using a stepwise multiple regression modelling procedure. The model contains two terms that describe the dependence of ozone on nitrogen oxides (NOx) and nonmethane hydrocarbon precursor concentrations, and other terms that relate to wind direction, wind speed, sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and solar energy. In the model, the levels of the precursors are inversely related to ozone concentration, whereas SO₂ concentration, wind speed and solar radiation are positively correlated. Typically, 63 % of the variation in ozone levels can be explained by the levels of NOx. The model is shown to be statistically significant and model predictions and experimental observations are shown to be consistent. A detailed analysis of the ozone-temperature relationship is also presented; at temperatures less than 27 °C there is a positive correlation between temperature and ozone concentration whereas at temperatures greater than 27 °C a negative correlation is seen. This is the first time a non-monotonic relationship between ozone levels and temperature has been reported and discussed.     

Fate of disinfection by-products in groundwater during aquifer storage and recovery with reclaimed water

Knowledge on the behaviour of disinfection by-products (DBPs) during aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) is limited even though this can be an important consideration where recovered waters are used for potable purposes. A reclaimed water ASR trial in an anoxic aquifer in South Australia has provided some of the first quantitative information at field-scale on the fate and transport of trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs). The results revealed that THM half-lives varied from <1 to 65 days, with persistence of chloroform being highest and bromoform lowest. HAA attenuation was rapid (<1 day). Rates of THM attenuation were shown to be highly dependent on the geochemical environment as evidenced by the 2-5 fold reduction in half-lives at the ASR well which became methanogenic during the storage phase of the trial, as compared to an observation well situated 4 m away, which remained nitrate-reducing. These findings agree with previous laboratory-based studies which also show persistence declining with increased bromination of THMs and reducing redox conditions. Modelling suggests that the chlorinated injectant has sufficient residual chlorine and natural organic matter for substantial increases in THMs to occur within the aquifer, however this is masked in some of the field observations due to concurrent attenuation, particularly for the more rapidly attenuated brominated compounds. The model is based on data taken from water distribution systems and may not be representative for ASR since bromide and ammonia concentrations in the injected water and the possible role of organic carbon in the aquifer were not taken into consideration. During the storage phase DBP formation potentials were reduced as a result of the removal of precursor material despite an increase in the THM formation potential per unit weight of total organic carbon. This suggests that water quality improvements with respect to THMs and HAAs can be achieved through ASR in anoxic aquifers.     

The acute and chronic toxicity of lanthanum to Daphnia carinata

The rare earth elements (REEs) are increasingly being used as trace supplements in agriculture. This study measured the acute and chronic toxicity of one REE, lanthanum (La), to Daphnia carinata. The 48-h EC50 of La to Daphnia was measured in three media of differing composition and hardness. Lanthanum was most toxic to Daphnia in soft tap water (TW) with an acute 48-h EC50 of 43 microg/l compared with 1180 microg/l in ASTM hard water (ASTM). In the third daphnid growth medium (DW), based on diluted sea water, the acute 48-h EC50 was 49 microg La/l, however, there was significant precipitation of La in this media. The chronic toxicity of La to Daphnia was measured in the DW and ASTM media. Nominal exposure concentrations were 100, 200, 400, 600, 800, and 1000 microg La/l. Mortality was a more sensitive endpoint than growth or reproduction in both chronic experiments. Very little La was detected in either media after 24 h and the measured concentrations below were estimated by logarithmic mean of nominal and measured values. There was 100% mortality at concentrations > or = 80 microg La/l (400 microg/l nominal) by day six of the experiment using DW media, but no effect on survival growth or reproduction at lower concentrations. In the ASTM media, La caused significant mortality to Daphnia at concentrations > or = 39 microg/l (200 microg/l nominal), however, at least one animal survived to the end of the study at each of the tested concentrations. There was no effect of La on growth of surviving daphnids at concentrations < or = 57 microg/l (400 g/l), however, second brood clutch sizes were significantly increased at 30, 39, and 57 microg/l (100, 200, 400 g/l nominal) compared with controls. Lanthanum also caused a delayed maturation in Daphnia.