Industrial disasters: Extreme events,extremely rare. Some reflections on the treatment of uncertainties in the assessment of the associated risks

This paper addresses the issue of risk from disasters occurring due to accidents in high-consequence technologies, e.g., nuclear and oil and gas. The focus is on the challenges posed to the representation and treatment of uncertainties in the assessment of such risk, given that the occurrence of such extreme disasters is extremely unlikely, and yet they occur. A general framework of analysis is proposed.     

Perioperative fetal hemodynamic changes in twin-twin transfusion syndrome and neurodevelopmental outcome at two years of age

Objective

To investigate whether perioperative fetal hemodynamic changes in twin-to-twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS) are associated with neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) at two years.

Methods

Doppler parameters of three sonograms (day before, first day after and 1 week after laser surgery for TTTS) were assessed for correlation with neurodevelopmental outcome at two years (2008-2016). NDI was defined as: cerebral palsy, deafness, blindness, and/or a Bayley-III cognitive/motor developmental test-score > 2SD below the mean.

Results

Long-term outcome was assessed in 492 TTTS survivors. NDI was present in 5% (24/492). After adjustment for severe cerebral injury (present in 4%), associated with NDI were: middle cerebral artery peak systolic velocity (MCA-PSV) >1.5 multiples of the median (MoM) 1 day after surgery (odds ratio [OR] 4.96; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.17-21.05, P = .03), a change from normal umbilical artery pulsatility index (UA-PI) presurgery to UA-PI >p95 postsurgery (OR 4.19; 95% CI: 1.04-16.87, P = .04), a change from normal to MCA-PSV >1.5MoM (OR 4.75; 95% CI: 1.43-15.77, P = .01).

Conclusion

Perioperative fetal hemodynamic changes in TTTS pregnancies treated with laser are associated with poor neurodevelopmental outcome. Prospective research on the cerebrovascular response to altered hemodynamic conditions is necessary to further understand the cerebral autoregulatory capacity of the fetus in relation to neurodevelopmental outcome.     

Open fetal surgery for myelomeningocele

Despite efforts at prevention through the use of preconception folic acid, spina bifida remains one of the most common congenital anomalies of the central nervous system that is compatible with life. It is, however, associated with a significant degree of lifelong morbidity. The development of open fetal surgery for myelomeningocele (MMC) has been a long process but one that serves as a model for how new procedures and technologies need to be properly evaluated before being brought into mainstream medical practice. Even so, risks and benefits need to be evaluated for each patient. The currently available studies have been carried out on a highly selected patient population where the fetal findings provided the maximum opportunity for benefit from prenatal closure of the MMC defect. There is the potential that as the surgery becomes more widely available, pressure will be brought to bear to perform surgery in cases where the likelihood for benefit is decreased and yet the risks are not. The only way to duplicate the results of the current studies is to follow the methodology and criteria that were used in the studies. This will mean that not every fetus with an MMC will be a candidate for in utero surgery. The balance of risk to benefit will continue to evolve as further technological advances are evaluated and more follow-up information is obtained. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Role of volcanic dust in the atmospheric transport and deposition of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and mercury

The role of volcanic ash as scavenger of atmospheric pollutants, in their transport and final deposition to the ground is examined. Attention is focused on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and on particulate mercury (Hgp). The ash-fall deposits studied belong to the 2001 and 2002 eruptive activity of Mount Etna, Southern Italy, and were investigated at three (2001) and four (2002) sites downwind of the major tephra dispersal pattern. The dry deposition of mercury and PAHs was determined, and, in particular, a downward flux to the ground of PAHs (approximately 7.29 microg m(-2) per day) and mercury (750 ng m(-2) per day) was estimated in Catania from October 26 to October 28, 2002. Finally, evidence on the anthropogenic origin of PAHs scavenged from the troposphere by volcanic ash is supported by the analysis of PAH compositions in granulometrically homogeneous fractions.     

Persistent organic pollutants in sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax L.) in two fish farms in the Mediterranean Sea

We analyzed polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs), perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) in the edible part of farmed sea bass reared in two fish farms in Liguria (Northern Italy). The aim was to determine the contamination levels and human exposure to these chemicals through fish consumption. Concentrations of “dioxin-like” PCBs (DL-PCBs) ranged from 0.033 to 0.759 pg Σ_TEQ-PCB g⁻¹ whole weight (w.w.) in fish farm 1 and from 0.032 to 1.60 pg Σ_TEQ-PCB g⁻¹ w.w. in fish farm 2, and the six indicators of “non-dioxin-like” (NDL-PCBs) from 0.538 to 9.33 ng Σ_6PCB g⁻¹ w.w. and from 1.62 to 27.6 ng Σ_6PCB g⁻¹ w.w. Concentrations were generally lower in farm 1 than in farm 2. One reason for this difference might be the proximity of farm 2 to the seaport of La Spezia, which could be a punctual source of pollutants influencing the contamination of the water in the farm. Principal component analysis (PCA) showed differences also in the congeners profiles for the two sites, with higher-chlorinated PCBs more abundant in farm 1, and lower-chlorinated PCBs were more abundant in farm 2. Most of the concentrations of PFOS and PFOA were below the limit of detection (LOD 0.05 ng g⁻¹ w.w.). Only about 10% of the samples analyzed had levels slightly higher than the LOD. Assessments of exposure using these data showed that consumption of farmed fish may contribute significantly to PCBs through the diet, whereas the contribution of PFOS and PFOA seems to be low.     

Transgenic poplar trees expressing yeast cadmium factor 1 exhibit the characteristics necessary for the phytoremediation of mine tailing soil

Genetic engineering of plants for phytoremediation is thought to be possible based on results using model plants expressing genes involved in heavy metal resistance, which improve the plant’s tolerance of heavy metals and accumulation capacity. The next step of progress in this technology requires the genetic engineering of plants that produce large amounts of biomass and the testing of these transgenic plants in contaminated soils. Thus, we transformed a sterile line of poplar Populus alba X P. tremula var. glandulosa with a heavy metal resistance gene, ScYCF1 (yeast cadmium factor 1), which encodes a transporter that sequesters toxic metal(loid)s into the vacuoles of budding yeast, and tested these transgenic plants in soil taken from a closed mine site contaminated with multiple toxic metal(loid)s under greenhouse and field conditions. The YCF1-expressing transgenic poplar plants exhibited enhanced growth, reduced toxicity symptoms, and increased Cd content in the aerial tissue compared to the non-transgenic plants. Furthermore, the plants accumulated increased amounts of Cd, Zn, and Pb in the root, because they could establish an extensive root system in mine tailing soil. These results suggest that the generation of YCF1-expressing transgenic poplar represents the first step towards producing plants for phytoremediation. The YCF1-expressing poplar may be useful for phytostabilization and phytoattenuation, especially in highly contaminated regions, where wild-type plants cannot survive.