Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation1

Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract: The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change.     

Numerical simulations on the influence of matrix diffusion to carbon sequestration in double porosity fissured aquifers

The double porosity model for fissured rocks, such as limestones and dolomites, has some features that may be relevant for carbon sequestration. Numerical simulations were conducted to study the influence of matrix diffusion on the trapping mechanisms relevant for the long-term fate of CO₂ injected in fissured rocks. The simulations show that, due to molecular diffusion of CO₂ into the rock matrix, dissolution trapping and hydrodynamic trapping are more effective in double porosity aquifers than in an equivalent porous media. Mineral trapping, although assessed indirectly, is also probably more relevant in double porosity aquifers due to the larger contact surface and longer contact time between dissolved CO₂ and rock minerals. However, stratigraphic/structural trapping is less efficient in double porosity media, because at short times CO₂ is stored only in the fissures, requiring large aquifer volumes and increasing the risk associated to the occurrence of imperfections in the cap-rock through which leakage can occur. This increased risk is also a reality when considering storage in aquifers with a regional flow gradient, since the CO₂ free-phase will move faster due to the higher flow velocities in fissured media and discharge zones may be reached sooner.     

Anoxic-aerobic treatment of the liquid fraction of cattle manure

Cattle manure from a dairy farm was treated in order to reduce its pollution potential. The manure came from a farm with 120 cows kept in stables in a free stall barn. As pretreatment, the manure is usually filtered on the farm using a screw press separator with a 0.5 mm mesh. Approximately 70% of the total filtered volume passes through the screen, thus constituting the liquid fraction. This fraction, with a composition of around 64,500 mg COD/l, 5770 mg total-N/l and 800 mg total-P/l, was subjected to centrifugation followed by a two-step biological treatment (anoxic-aerobic) to reduce organic matter (COD), nitrogen and phosphorus compounds. Centrifugation led to the following removal efficiencies: 35% total solids, 60% COD, 75% total phosphorus and 20% total nitrogen (mainly organic nitrogen). With the subsequent anoxic-aerobic treatment, average removal efficiencies of 85% for COD, 90% for total phosphorus and 75% for total nitrogen were achieved.     

Methane generation in tropical landfills: simplified methods and field results

This paper deals with the use of simplified methods to predict methane generation in tropical landfills. Methane recovery data obtained on site as part of a research program being carried out at the Metropolitan Landfill, Salvador, Brazil, is analyzed and used to obtain field methane generation over time. Laboratory data from MSW samples of different ages are presented and discussed; and simplified procedures to estimate the methane generation potential, Lo, and the constant related to the biodegradation rate, k are applied. The first order decay method is used to fit field and laboratory results. It is demonstrated that despite the assumptions and the simplicity of the adopted laboratory procedures, the values Lo and k obtained are very close to those measured in the field, thus making this kind of analysis very attractive for first approach purposes.     

The Effect of Masterbatch Addition on the Mechanical, Thermal, Optical and Surface Properties of Poly(lactic acid)

There has been considerable interest in the use of the biodegradable polymer poly(lactic acid) (PLA) as a replacement for petroleum derived polymers due to ease of processability and its high mechanical strength. Other material properties have however limited its wider application. These include its brittle properties, low impact strength and yellow tint. In an attempt to overcome these drawbacks, PLA was blended with four commercially available additives, commonly known as masterbatches. The effect of the addition of 1.5 wt% of the four masterbatches on the mechanical, thermal, optical and surface properties of the polymer was evaluated. All four masterbatches had a slight negative effect on the tensile strength of PLA (3–5% reduction). There was a four fold increase in impact resistance however with the addition of one of the masterbatches. Differential scanning calorimetry demonstrated that this increase corresponded to a decrease in the polymer crystallinity. However there was an associated increase in polymer haze with the addition of this masterbatch. The clarity of PLA was improved through the addition of an optical brightener masterbatch, but the impact resistance remained low. The glass transition and melting temperatures of PLA were not affected by the addition of the masterbatches, and no change was observed in surface energy. Some delay in PLA degradation, in a PBS degradation medium at 50 °C, was observed due to blending with these masterbatches.     

Seat Belt Use in States and Territories with Primary and Secondary Laws -- United States, 2006

Problem

Motor-vehicle crashes are a leading cause of death in the United States. In the event of a crash, seat belts are highly effective in preventing serious injury and death.

Methods

Data from the 2006 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System were used to calculate prevalence of seat belt use by state and territory and by type of state seat belt law (primary vs. secondary enforcement).

Results

In 2006, seat belt use among adults ranged from 58.3% to 91.9% in the states and territories. Seat belt use was 86.0% in states and territories with primary enforcement laws and 75.9% in states with secondary enforcement laws.

Discussion

Seat belt use continues to increase in the United States. Primary enforcement laws remain a more effective strategy than secondary enforcement laws in getting motor-vehicle occupants to wear their seat belts.     

Sustainable forest management in a mountain region in the Central Western Carpathians,northeastern Slovakia: the role of climate change

European forestry is facing many challenges, including the need to adapt to climate change and an unprecedented increase in forest damage. We investigated these challenges in a Norway spruce-dominated mountain region in Central Europe. We used the model Sibyla to explore forest biomass production to the year 2100 under climate change and under two alternative management systems: the currently applied management (CM), which strives to actively improve the forest’s adaptive capacity, and no management (NM) as a reference. Because biodiversity is thought to have mostly positive effects on the adaptive capacity of forests and on the quality of ecosystem services, we explored how climate change and management affect indicators of biodiversity. We found a differential response across the elevation-climatic gradient, including a drought-induced decrease in biomass production over large areas. With CM, the support of non-spruce species and the projected improvement of their growth increased tree species diversity. The promotion of species with higher survival rates led to a decrease in forest damage relative to both the present conditions and NM. NM preserved the high density of over-matured spruce trees, which caused forest damage to increase. An abundance of dead wood and large standing trees, which can increase biodiversity, increased with NM. Our results suggest that commercial spruce forests, which are not actively adapted to climate change, tend to preserve their monospecific composition at a cost of increased forest damage. The persisting high rates of damage along with the adverse effects of climate change make the prospects of such forests uncertain.     

Perceptions matter: household adaptive capacity and capability in two Australian coastal communities

Regional Environmental Change - This paper presents empirical data on household perceptions of capability to adapt to climate hazards and associated capacity needs. Households play an important...     

The humanitarian common logistic operating picture: a solution to the inter‐agency coordination challenge

Although significant progress has been made in developing the practice of humanitarian logistics, further improvements in efficiency and effectiveness have the potential to save lives and reduce suffering. This paper explores how the military/emergency services’ concept of a common operating picture (COP) can be adapted to the humanitarian logistics context, and analyses a practical and proven approach to addressing the key challenge of inter‐agency coordination and decision‐making. Successful adaptation could provide the mechanism through which predicted and actual demands, together with the location and status of material in transit, are captured, evaluated, and presented in real time as the basis for enhanced decision‐making between actors in the humanitarian supply network. Through the introduction of a humanitarian logistics COP and its linkages to national disaster management systems, local communities and countries affected by disasters and emergencies will be better placed to oversee and manage their response activities.     

Fourth-corner correlation is a score test statistic in a log-linear trait–environment model that is useful in permutation testing

Ecologists wish to understand the role of traits of species in determining where each species occurs in the environment. For this, they wish to detect associations between species traits and environmental variables from three data tables, species count data from sites with associated environmental data and species trait data from data bases. These three tables leave a missing part, the fourth-corner. The fourth-corner correlations between quantitative traits and environmental variables, heuristically proposed 20 years ago, fill this corner. Generalized linear (mixed) models have been proposed more recently as a model-based alternative. This paper shows that the squared fourth-corner correlation times the total count is precisely the score test statistic for testing the linear-by-linear interaction in a Poisson log-linear model that also contains species and sites as main effects. For multiple traits and environmental variables, the score test statistic is proportional to the total inertia of a doubly constrained correspondence analysis. When the count data are over-dispersed compared to the Poisson or when there are other deviations from the model such as unobserved traits or environmental variables that interact with the observed ones, the score test statistic does not have the usual chi-square distribution. For these types of deviations, row- and column-based permutation methods (and their sequential combination) are proposed to control the type I error without undue loss of power (unless no deviation is present), as illustrated in a small simulation study. The issues for valid statistical testing are illustrated using the well-known Dutch Dune Meadow data set.