A Bayesian network approach to modelling land-use decisions under environmental policy incentives in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT

Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km² between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km² over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change.     

Spatial extremes of wildfire sizes: Bayesian hierarchical models for extremes

In Portugal, due to the combination of climatological and ecological factors, large wildfires are a constant threat and due to their economic impact, a big policy issue. In order to organize efficient fire fighting capacity and resource management, correct quantification of the risk of large wildfires are needed. In this paper, we quantify the regional risk of large wildfire sizes, by fitting a Generalized Pareto distribution to excesses over a suitably chosen high threshold. Spatio-temporal variations are introduced into the model through model parameters with suitably chosen link functions. The inference on these models are carried using Bayesian Hierarchical Models and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.     

Bold minnows consistently approach danger in the field and lab in response to either chemical or visual indicators of predation risk

A behavioral syndrome is a suite of behaviors correlated across multiple social contexts. In this study, boldness in the face of predation risk was assessed twice in fish across two different sensory modalities in both the field and lab to ascertain the biological relevance and complexity of this attribute. Individual fathead minnows were captured from a natural field population using traps that either contained chemical alarm cues (conspecific skin extract) or control (well water) and their responses to the presence of predator behind a glass partition assessed in the laboratory. Although fewer fish were captured in alarm cue-labeled traps, these bold fish performed longer predator inspections than shy fish captured in control traps. Thus, a shy/bold behavioral syndrome was expressed consistently across field and lab settings in response to both chemical and visual indicators of danger. Shy and bold individuals did not differ in sex, body length, secondary sexual characteristics, or parasite load but were of more robust physical condition.     

Sensitivity analysis of the two dimensional application of the Generic Ecological Model (GEM) to algal bloom prediction in the North Sea

Harmful algae can cause damage to co-existing organisms, tourism and farmers. Accurate predictions of algal future composition and abundance as well as when and where algal blooms may occur could help early warning and mitigating. The Generic Ecological Model is an instrument that can be applied to any water system (fresh, transitional or coastal) to calculate the primary production, chlorophyll-a concentration and phytoplankton species composition. It consists of physical, chemical and ecological model components which are coupled together to build one generic and flexible modelling tool. In this paper the model has been analyzed to assess sensitivity of the simulated chlorophyll-a concentration to a subset of ecologically significant input factors. Only a small number of approaches could be considered as suitable for several reasons including the model complexity, engagement of numerous interacting parameters and relatively long time of a single simulation. Thus, sensitivity analysis has been carried out with the use of the Morris method and later enriched by the computation of the correlation ratios of the selected parameters on the model response at more than a few locations in the modelled area. The obtained results are in agreement with expert knowledge of the ecological processes in the North Sea and correspond well with local characteristics.     

Deriving state-and-transition models from an image series of grassland pattern dynamics

We present how state-and-transition models (STMs) may be derived from image data, providing a graphical means of understanding how ecological dynamics are driven by complex interactions among ecosystem events. A temporal sequence of imagery of fine scale vegetation patterning was acquired from close range photogrammetry (CRP) of 1 m quadrats, in a long term monitoring project of Themeda triandra (Forsskal) grasslands in north western Australia. A principal components scaling of image metrics calculated on the imagery defined the state space of the STM, and thereby characterised the different patterns found in the imagery. Using the state space, we were able to relate key events (i.e. fire and rainfall) to both the image data and aboveground biomass, and identified distinct ecological ‘phases’ and ‘transitions’ of the system. The methodology objectively constructs a STM from imagery and, in principle, may be applied to any temporal sequence of imagery captured in any event-driven system. Our approach, by integrating image data, addresses the labour constraint limiting the extensive use of STMs in managing vegetation change in arid and semiarid rangelands.     

Integration of a fish bioenergetics model into a spatially explicit water quality model: Application to menhaden in Chesapeake Bay

Although fish are usually thought of as victims of water quality degradation, it has been proposed that some planktivorous species may improve water quality through consumption of algae and sequestering of nutrients via growth. Within most numerical water quality models, the highest trophic level modeled explicitly is zooplankton, prohibiting an investigation of the effect a fish species may be having on its environment. Conversely, numerical models of fish consumption do not typically include feedback mechanisms to capture the effects of fish on primary production and nutrient recycling. In the present study, a fish bioenergetics model is incorporated into CE-QUAL-ICM, a spatially explicit eutrophication model. In addition to fish consumption of algae, zooplankton, and detritus, fish biomass accumulation and nutrient recycling to the water column are explicitly accounted for. These developments advance prior modeling efforts of the impact of fish on water quality, many of which are based on integrated estimates over an entire system and which omit the feedback the fish have through nutrient recycling and excretion. To validate the developments, a pilot application was undertaken for Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) in Chesapeake Bay. The model indicates menhaden may reduce the algal biomass while simultaneously increasing primary productivity.     

Influence of low and decreasing food levels on Daphnia-algal interactions: Numerical experiments with a new dynamic energy budget model

Based on numerical experiments with a new physiologically structured population model we demonstrate that predator physiology under low food and under starving conditions can have substantial implications for population dynamics in predator-prey interactions. We focused on Daphnia-algae interactions as model system and developed a new dynamic energy budget (DEB) model for individual daphnids. This model integrates the κ-rule approach common to net assimilation models into a net-production model, but uses a fixed allocation of net-productive energy in juveniles. The new DEB-model agrees well with the results of life history experiments with Daphnia. Compared to a pure κ-rule model the new allocation scheme leads to significant earlier maturation at low food levels and thus is in better agreement with the data. Incorporation of the new DEB-model into a physiologically structured population model using a box-car elevator technique revealed that the dynamics of Daphnia-algae interactions are highly sensitive to the assumptions on the energy allocation of juveniles under low food conditions. Additionally we show that also other energy allocation rules of our DEB-model concerning decreasing food levels and starving conditions at the individual level have strong implications for Daphnia-algae interactions at the population level. With increasing carrying capacity of algae a stable equilibrium with coexistence of Daphnia occurs and algae shifts to limit cycles. The amplitudes of the limit cycles increase with increasing percentage of sustainable weight loss. If a κ-rule energy allocation is applied to juveniles, the stable equilibrium occurs for a much narrower range of algal carrying capacities, the algal concentration at equilibrium is about 2 times larger, and the range of algae carrying capacities at which daphnids become extinct extends to higher carrying capacities than in the new DEB-model. Because predator-prey dynamics are very sensitive to predator physiology under low food and starving conditions, empirical constraints of predator physiology under these conditions are essential when comparing model results with observations in laboratory experiments or in the field.     

Changes in chemical forms of lead in temperate and semiarid soils in sterile and unsterile conditions

Sequential extraction has been used as a suitable method for fractionation of chemical forms of trace elements and study of their plant availability. Surface soils were sampled from Guilan and Hamadan provinces in north and northwest of Iran with temperate and semiarid climates. The chemical forms of Pb in the Pb(NO₃)₂-treated (400 μg Pb g⁻¹) soils have been studied in solid state incubation (FC) at 27°C in sterile and unsterile conditions. After 20 min and 3600 h a sequential extraction scheme was also used to fractionate Pb of incubated samples into soluble-exchangeable (Sol-Exch), carbonates associated (ACar), organic matter associated (AOM), Mn oxide associated (AMnOx), Fe oxide associated (AFeOx), and residual (Res) forms. Temperate soil samples had higher clay content, cation exchange capacity (CEC), dichromate oxidable organic carbon (OC), total Kjeldahl-nitrogen (TN), biological activity, amorphous and crystalline Fe and Al, but semiarid soil samples had higher sand content, pH, equivalent calcium carbonate (ECC), available P and K. Soil lead fractionation revealed that in both groups of soils Pb largely changed to exchangeable, carbonates associated and organic associated forms after 20 min. The chemical forms of Pb differed widely among soils after 3600-h incubation. The conversion rate of Pb from more available forms to less available forms was higher in temperate soils with higher Fe–Mn oxides and OM contents compared to semiarid soils. In temperate soils after 3600-h incubation, greater content of Pb was observed in Res (68%), AOM (14%), ACar (7%), and AMnOx (5%) fractions. However, in semiarid soils greater content of Pb was observed in Res (61%), ACar (16%), Sol-Exch (8%), and AOM (8%) fractions. The sum of AMnOx and AFeOx chemical forms for Pb in semiarid soils compared to temperate soils was lower. It was only 7% against 9% in temperate soils. Soil microorganisms in unsterile soils had significant effect on AOM, AFeOx and Res fractions of Pb. They not only increased AOM and AFeOx fractions of Pb in soils but also decreased Res fraction of Pb significantly.     

Evaluation of metabisulfite and a commercial steel wool for removing chromium(VI) from wastewater

Efficiency of metabisulfite and a commercial steel wool as reducing agents in the removal of Cr(VI) from wastewaters was evaluated. Chromium(VI) was converted to Cr(III), precipitated with NaOH, and removed by filtration. A reduction of more than 1.0 × 10⁵ and 4.0 × 10⁵ fold in total Cr and the Cr(VI) concentrations, respectively, was observed by employing steel wool masses as low as 0.4420 g to 30-mL solutions of wastewater. Chromium(III) hydroxide obtained after the treatment was recycled and used as marker in cattle nutrition studies. The liquid residue obtained after the treatment was reused as precipitation agent replacing NaOH.