Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation1

Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract: The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change.     

Numerical simulations on the influence of matrix diffusion to carbon sequestration in double porosity fissured aquifers

The double porosity model for fissured rocks, such as limestones and dolomites, has some features that may be relevant for carbon sequestration. Numerical simulations were conducted to study the influence of matrix diffusion on the trapping mechanisms relevant for the long-term fate of CO₂ injected in fissured rocks. The simulations show that, due to molecular diffusion of CO₂ into the rock matrix, dissolution trapping and hydrodynamic trapping are more effective in double porosity aquifers than in an equivalent porous media. Mineral trapping, although assessed indirectly, is also probably more relevant in double porosity aquifers due to the larger contact surface and longer contact time between dissolved CO₂ and rock minerals. However, stratigraphic/structural trapping is less efficient in double porosity media, because at short times CO₂ is stored only in the fissures, requiring large aquifer volumes and increasing the risk associated to the occurrence of imperfections in the cap-rock through which leakage can occur. This increased risk is also a reality when considering storage in aquifers with a regional flow gradient, since the CO₂ free-phase will move faster due to the higher flow velocities in fissured media and discharge zones may be reached sooner.     

Methane generation in tropical landfills: simplified methods and field results

This paper deals with the use of simplified methods to predict methane generation in tropical landfills. Methane recovery data obtained on site as part of a research program being carried out at the Metropolitan Landfill, Salvador, Brazil, is analyzed and used to obtain field methane generation over time. Laboratory data from MSW samples of different ages are presented and discussed; and simplified procedures to estimate the methane generation potential, Lo, and the constant related to the biodegradation rate, k are applied. The first order decay method is used to fit field and laboratory results. It is demonstrated that despite the assumptions and the simplicity of the adopted laboratory procedures, the values Lo and k obtained are very close to those measured in the field, thus making this kind of analysis very attractive for first approach purposes.     

The Effect of Masterbatch Addition on the Mechanical, Thermal, Optical and Surface Properties of Poly(lactic acid)

There has been considerable interest in the use of the biodegradable polymer poly(lactic acid) (PLA) as a replacement for petroleum derived polymers due to ease of processability and its high mechanical strength. Other material properties have however limited its wider application. These include its brittle properties, low impact strength and yellow tint. In an attempt to overcome these drawbacks, PLA was blended with four commercially available additives, commonly known as masterbatches. The effect of the addition of 1.5 wt% of the four masterbatches on the mechanical, thermal, optical and surface properties of the polymer was evaluated. All four masterbatches had a slight negative effect on the tensile strength of PLA (3–5% reduction). There was a four fold increase in impact resistance however with the addition of one of the masterbatches. Differential scanning calorimetry demonstrated that this increase corresponded to a decrease in the polymer crystallinity. However there was an associated increase in polymer haze with the addition of this masterbatch. The clarity of PLA was improved through the addition of an optical brightener masterbatch, but the impact resistance remained low. The glass transition and melting temperatures of PLA were not affected by the addition of the masterbatches, and no change was observed in surface energy. Some delay in PLA degradation, in a PBS degradation medium at 50 °C, was observed due to blending with these masterbatches.     

Seat Belt Use in States and Territories with Primary and Secondary Laws -- United States, 2006

Problem

Motor-vehicle crashes are a leading cause of death in the United States. In the event of a crash, seat belts are highly effective in preventing serious injury and death.

Methods

Data from the 2006 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System were used to calculate prevalence of seat belt use by state and territory and by type of state seat belt law (primary vs. secondary enforcement).

Results

In 2006, seat belt use among adults ranged from 58.3% to 91.9% in the states and territories. Seat belt use was 86.0% in states and territories with primary enforcement laws and 75.9% in states with secondary enforcement laws.

Discussion

Seat belt use continues to increase in the United States. Primary enforcement laws remain a more effective strategy than secondary enforcement laws in getting motor-vehicle occupants to wear their seat belts.     

Dynamics of leaf litter and soil respiration in a complex multistrata agroforestry system,Pernambuco, Brazil

High litter inputs in agroforestry systems contribute to soil microbial activity, soil fertility and productivity. Considering that the cycling of organic matter is essential to the maintenance of physical–chemical and microbiological properties of the soil, the aims of this work were to estimate the production, accumulation and decomposition of litter, and assess soil microbial respiration in a complex multistrata agroforestry system located in the north-east of Brazil. This agroforestry system has three strata formed by forest and fruit trees and species of multiple uses. During 3 years (2011–2013), leaf litter was sampled monthly to account for litterfall and quarterly to account for litter accumulation. The rates of litter decomposition were estimated using the ratio produced-to-accumulated litter, and the correlation between litter fall and rainfall was calculated. Precipitation data were provided by the water and climate agency of Pernambuco (APAC). Soil samples (0–15 cm) were also taken quarterly, simultaneously with the litter accumulation samples, and soil microbial respiration was assessed using the capture, by a KOH solution, of the evolved CO₂. The annual production of leaf litter was stable in the 3 years of study in this agroforestry system, and the monthly input of litter to the soil was influenced by rainfall, being higher in the dry seasons. The accumulated litter on the ground was constant, as was microbial activity (respiration) through time. The estimated litter decomposition rates were 1.49 (first year), 1.33 (second year) and 1.42 (third year), being considered rapid rates of decomposition. This guarantees (to the farmer) that this system is capable of maintaining soil fertility and eliminates the need for chemical fertilizers.     

When experts disagree: the need to rethink indicator selection for assessing sustainability of agriculture

Sustainability indicators are well recognized for their potential to assess and monitor sustainable development of agricultural systems. A large number of indicators are proposed in various sustainability assessment frameworks, which raises concerns regarding the validity of approaches, usefulness and trust in such frameworks. Selecting indicators requires transparent and well-defined procedures to ensure the relevance and validity of sustainability assessments. The objective of this study, therefore, was to determine whether experts agree on which criteria are most important in the selection of indicators and indicator sets for robust sustainability assessments. Two groups of experts (Temperate Agriculture Research Network and New Zealand Sustainability Dashboard) were asked to rank the relative importance of eleven criteria for selecting individual indicators and of nine criteria for balancing a collective set of indicators. Both ranking surveys reveal a startling lack of consensus amongst experts about how best to measure agricultural sustainability and call for a radical rethink about how complementary approaches to sustainability assessments are used alongside each other to ensure a plurality of views and maximum collaboration and trust amongst stakeholders. To improve the transparency, relevance and robustness of sustainable assessments, the context of the sustainability assessment, including prioritizations of selection criteria for indicator selection, must be accounted for. A collaborative design process will enhance the acceptance of diverse values and prioritizations embedded in sustainability assessments. The process by which indicators and sustainability frameworks are established may be a much more important determinant of their success than the final shape of the assessment tools. Such an emphasis on process would make assessments more transparent, transformative and enduring.     

Anticipatory capacity in response to global change across an extreme elevation gradient in the Ica Basin,Peru

Regional Environmental Change - Mountainous areas with extreme elevation gradients and corresponding ranges of biophysical and socioeconomic conditions are highly vulnerable to global change. We...     

Perceptions matter: household adaptive capacity and capability in two Australian coastal communities

Regional Environmental Change - This paper presents empirical data on household perceptions of capability to adapt to climate hazards and associated capacity needs. Households play an important...     

Fourth-corner correlation is a score test statistic in a log-linear trait–environment model that is useful in permutation testing

Ecologists wish to understand the role of traits of species in determining where each species occurs in the environment. For this, they wish to detect associations between species traits and environmental variables from three data tables, species count data from sites with associated environmental data and species trait data from data bases. These three tables leave a missing part, the fourth-corner. The fourth-corner correlations between quantitative traits and environmental variables, heuristically proposed 20 years ago, fill this corner. Generalized linear (mixed) models have been proposed more recently as a model-based alternative. This paper shows that the squared fourth-corner correlation times the total count is precisely the score test statistic for testing the linear-by-linear interaction in a Poisson log-linear model that also contains species and sites as main effects. For multiple traits and environmental variables, the score test statistic is proportional to the total inertia of a doubly constrained correspondence analysis. When the count data are over-dispersed compared to the Poisson or when there are other deviations from the model such as unobserved traits or environmental variables that interact with the observed ones, the score test statistic does not have the usual chi-square distribution. For these types of deviations, row- and column-based permutation methods (and their sequential combination) are proposed to control the type I error without undue loss of power (unless no deviation is present), as illustrated in a small simulation study. The issues for valid statistical testing are illustrated using the well-known Dutch Dune Meadow data set.