Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation1

Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract: The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change.     

Real-time, high-resolution quantitative measurement of multiple soil gas emissions: selected ion flow tube mass spectrometry

A new technique is presented for the rapid, high-resolution identification and quantification of multiple trace gases above soils, at concentrations down to 0.01 microL L(-1) (10 ppb). The technique, selected ion flow tube mass spectrometry (SIFT-MS), utilizes chemical ionization reagent ions that react with trace gases but not with the major air components (N2, O2, Ar, CO2). This allows the real-time measurement of multiple trace gases without the need for preconcentration, trapping, or chromatographic separation. The technique is demonstrated by monitoring the emission of ammonia and nitric oxide, and the search for volatile organics, above containerized soil samples treated with synthetic cattle urine. In this model system, NH3 emissions peaked after 24 h at 2000 nmol m(-2) s(-1) and integrated to approximately 7% of the urea N applied, while NO emissions peaked about 25 d after urine addition at approximately 140 nmol m(-2) s(-1) and integrated to approximately 10% of the applied urea N. The monitoring of organics along with NH3 and NO was demonstrated in soils treated with synthetic urine, pyridine, and dimethylamine. No emission of volatile nitrogen organics from the urine treatments was observed at levels >0.01% of the applied nitrogen. The SIFT method allows the simultaneous in situ measurement of multiple gas components with a high spatial resolution of < 10 cm and time resolution <20 s. These capabilities allow, for example, identification of emission hotspots, and measurement of localized and rapid variations above agricultural and contaminated soils, as well as integrated emissions over longer periods.     

An Assessment of the Valuation Methods Used to Calculate the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), and Sustainable Net Benefit Index (SNBI)

For some time now, ecological economists have been putting forward a ‘threshold hypothesis’ – the notion that when macroeconomic systems expand beyond a certain size, the additional cost of growth exceeds the flow of additional benefits. In order to support their belief, ecological economists have developed a number of similar indexes to measure and compare the benefits and costs of growth (e.g., the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare and the Genuine Progress Indicator). In virtually every instance where an index of this type has been calculated for a particular country, the movement of the index appears to reinforce the existence of the threshold hypothesis. Of late, a number of observers have expressed concerns about whether these alternative indexes reflect concrete reality or the prejudices of ecological economists. In view of these concerns, this paper closely examines the valuation methods used in the calculation the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare, the Genuine Progress Indicator, and the Sustainable Net Benefit Index. It is argued that a consistent and more robust set of valuation techniques is required in order for these alternative indexes to gain broad acceptability.*Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

The problem of estimating recent genetic connectivity in a changing world

Accurate understanding of population connectivity is important to conservation because dispersal can play an important role in population dynamics, microevolution, and assessments of extirpation risk and population rescue. Genetic methods are increasingly used to infer population connectivity because advances in technology have made them more advantageous (e.g., cost effective) relative to ecological methods. Given the reductions in wildlife population connectivity since the Industrial Revolution and more recent drastic reductions from habitat loss, it is important to know the accuracy of and biases in genetic connectivity estimators when connectivity has declined recently. Using simulated data, we investigated the accuracy and bias of 2 common estimators of migration (movement of individuals among populations) rate. We focused on the timing of the connectivity change and the magnitude of that change on the estimates of migration by using a coalescent‐based method (Migrate‐n) and a disequilibrium‐based method (BayesAss). Contrary to expectations, when historically high connectivity had declined recently: (i) both methods over‐estimated recent migration rates; (ii) the coalescent‐based method (Migrate‐n) provided better estimates of recent migration rate than the disequilibrium‐based method (BayesAss); (iii) the coalescent‐based method did not accurately reflect long‐term genetic connectivity. Overall, our results highlight the problems with comparing coalescent and disequilibrium estimates to make inferences about the effects of recent landscape change on genetic connectivity among populations. We found that contrasting these 2 estimates to make inferences about genetic‐connectivity changes over time could lead to inaccurate conclusions.     

Assessing the Risk of Ships Striking Large Whales in Marine Spatial Planning

Marine spatial planning provides a comprehensive framework for managing multiple uses of the marine environment and has the potential to minimize environmental impacts and reduce conflicts among users. Spatially explicit assessments of the risks to key marine species from human activities are a requirement of marine spatial planning. We assessed the risk of ships striking humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae), blue (Balaenoptera musculus), and fin (Balaenoptera physalus) whales in alternative shipping routes derived from patterns of shipping traffic off Southern California (U.S.A.). Specifically, we developed whale‐habitat models and assumed ship‐strike risk for the alternative shipping routes was proportional to the number of whales predicted by the models to occur within each route. This definition of risk assumes all ships travel within a single route. We also calculated risk assuming ships travel via multiple routes. We estimated the potential for conflict between shipping and other uses (military training and fishing) due to overlap with the routes. We also estimated the overlap between shipping routes and protected areas. The route with the lowest risk for humpback whales had the highest risk for fin whales and vice versa. Risk to both species may be ameliorated by creating a new route south of the northern Channel Islands and spreading traffic between this new route and the existing route in the Santa Barbara Channel. Creating a longer route may reduce the overlap between shipping and other uses by concentrating shipping traffic. Blue whales are distributed more evenly across our study area than humpback and fin whales; thus, risk could not be ameliorated by concentrating shipping traffic in any of the routes we considered. Reducing ship‐strike risk for blue whales may be necessary because our estimate of the potential number of strikes suggests that they are likely to exceed allowable levels of anthropogenic impacts established under U.S. laws. Evaluación del Riesgo de Colisiones de Barcos y Ballenas en la Planificación Marina Espacial     

Population structure and genetic diversity in green turtles nesting at Tortuguero,Costa Rica,based on mitochondrial DNA control region sequences

The green turtle (Chelonia mydas) nesting population at Tortuguero, Costa Rica, is the largest nesting aggregation in the Atlantic, by at least an order of magnitude. Previous mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) surveys based on limited sampling (n = 41) indicated low genetic diversity and low gene flow with other Caribbean nesting colonies. Furthermore, a survey of nuclear DNA diversity invoked the possibility of substructure within the Tortuguero rookery. To evaluate these characteristics, mtDNA control region sequences were determined for green turtles nesting at Tortuguero in 2001 (n = 157) and 2002 (n = 235). The increased sample revealed three additional haplotypes; five haplotypes are now known for Tortuguero female green turtles. Analyses of molecular variance indicated that there was no significant spatial population structure along the 30-km nesting beach. In addition, no temporal population structure was detected either between the two nesting seasons or within the nesting season. As a result of the larger sample size and additional haplotypes, estimates of genetic separation among Caribbean nesting colonies have changed and the concordance of phylogenetic and phylogeographic patterns reported in the past for green turtles in the Greater Caribbean has weakened. The five haplotypes from Tortuguero represent 36% of the haplotypes identified in green turtle nesting aggregations in the Greater Caribbean and 17% of the haplotypes known to occur in nesting or foraging aggregations in the Greater Caribbean. Haplotype diversity (0.16) and nucleotide diversity (0.0034) for the Tortuguero population are substantially lower than those for the combined rookeries in the Greater Caribbean (0.44 and 0.0078, respectively). Although comprehensive evaluation of regional genetic diversity requires nuclear DNA data, our study indicates that conserving genetic diversity in Caribbean green turtles will require careful management of the smaller rookeries in addition to the Tortuguero rookery.     

Structural, morphological and genetic variability in Halophila stipulacea (Hydrocharitaceae) populations in the western Mediterranean

Halophila stipulacea (Forssk.) Ascher. is a dioecious seagrass that colonized the Mediterranean basin probably following the opening of the Suez Canal (1869). Natural meadows have been reported since the end of the last century on the eastern side of the basin and only recently along the northern coast of Sicily. In the present study we examined the morphological and genetic variability of two natural meadows located along the Sicilian coast (Vulcano Island and Oliveri-Tindari coastal lakes). In order to determine morphological and genetic polymorphism, samples were collected at different depths (5, 15 and 25 m depth at the Vulcano site) and positions (edge vs mid-bed) within the meadows. Statistically significant differences in phenotypic features were found between the factors “depth” and “position” within the same meadow and between the two localities. Genetic diversity was assessed using randomly amplified polymorphic DNA and found to be high. Deep and shallow stands of the Vulcano Island meadow clustered in different positions in the UPGMA tree. The shallow Vulcano stand was found to be closer to the shallow Oliveri-Tindari meadow than to the deeper stand from Vulcano. Mantel's test did not allow rejection of the null hypothesis of independence of morphological and molecular distance matrices. We conclude that (i) H. stipulacea shows high morphological and genetic polymorphism, (ii) environmental and/or ecological barriers exist between different depths, and (iii) trends of morphological and genetic variability may be influenced by different environmental and/or ecological factors. Received: 15 November 1998 / Accepted: 21 May 1999     

Modeling of Cs migration in soils using an 80-year soil archive: role of fertilizers and agricultural amendments

An 80-year soil archive, the 42-plot experimental design at the INRA in Versailles (France), is used here to study long-term contamination by ¹³⁷Cs atmospheric deposition and the fate of this radioisotope when associated with various agricultural practices: fallow land, KCl, NH₄(NO₃), superphosphate fertilizers, horse manure and lime amendments. The pertinence of a simple box model, where radiocaesium is supposed to move downward by convectional mechanisms, is checked using samples from control plots which had been neither amended, nor cultivated since 1928. This simple model presents the advantage of depending on only two parameters: α, a proportional factor allowing the historical atmospheric ¹³⁷Cs fluxes to be reconstructed locally, and k, an annual loss coefficient from the plow horizon. Another pseudo-unknown is however necessary to run the model: the shape of historical ¹³⁷Cs deposition, but this function can be easily computed by merging several curves previously established by other surveys. A loss of ∼1.5% per year from the plow horizon, combined with appropriate fluxes, provides good concordance between simulated and measured values. In the 0–25 cm horizon, the residence half time is found to be ∼18 yr (including both migration and radioactive decay). Migration rate constants are also calculated for some plots receiving continuous long-term agricultural treatments. Comparison with the control plots reveals significant influence of amendments on ¹³⁷Cs mobility in these soils developed from a unique genoform.