建筑材料隐含环境影响评估

我国建筑业快速发展,建筑开发使用大量的建筑材料给资源和环境带来严重负荷.以上海市为案例,运用生命周期评价方法,基于北京工业大学和Ecoinvent数据库中的建筑材料生产数据,采用ReCiPe法对上海市建筑物的材料隐含环境影响进行评估,并对未来的环境影响潜值进行预测.结果表明:在上海市居住建筑和非居住建筑所产生的各类环境影响中人类毒性、金属损耗最为突出,约占总环境影响的45%和20%;环境影响主要来源于钢筋和木材的生产,对各类环境影响贡献度分别约为47%、17%;高层居住建筑和非居住建筑中的工厂建筑物化环境影响在各自类型中所占比例最高.按现有趋势发展,2020年上海市居住建筑开发规模和环境影响潜值均将达到2014年的1.52倍,非居住建筑则可达到2014年的1.14倍.针对上海市建筑材料环境影响分析结果,为有效减轻上海市建筑物的环境影响,需重点关注钢筋、铝材、木材以及混凝土的生产,识别生产过程中污染物转移环节进而改进工序;在设计阶段考虑选择环境影响负荷低的绿色建材,如混凝土砌块、高性能混凝土等,从而降低环境影响;同时,应重点关注隐含环境负荷高的高层居住和工厂建筑类建筑,通过降低建材使用量等方案降低环境影响.      

蒲河水生态特征与修复对策研究

文章基于蒲河水生态功能三级分区建设目标,对蒲河流域水生态特征和受控因素进行了解析,探讨了具有北方地域特征河流的水生态修复对策和途径,总结了河道污染控制与水质改善实用技术的研发方向和应用的前景,为突破城市河流水生态修复的瓶颈问题提供了依据和技术支持。     

Evaluating the technical efficiencies of fishing vessels to achieve effective management of overexploited fisheries

Global marine capture fisheries are undergoing serious stress, with overfishing as one of the major problems. In order to mitigate the overexploitation of capture fisheries, government regulation or fisheries management is necessary. Among various management approaches, vessel quantity control is being widely employed. To achieve effective governance of fisheries, the technical efficiency (TE) issue needs to be considered in the implementation of vessel quantity control. Using the Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) stick-held dip net fishery in Japan as a case study, this paper estimated the TE of sampled fishing vessels and explored the possible factors affecting the gap in efficiency. This paper aims to provide suggestions for a better implementation of vessel quantity control in global Pacific saury fishery, and also to serve as an empirical example of integrating TE analysis into management of overexploited fisheries for achieving satisfactory effects. Results show the TE score of the sampled fishery averaged around 0.7 from 2009 to 2014, and factors concerning owners/skippers’ motivation such as vessel ownership and specialization, vessel tonnage as well as skippers’ age show positive effects on the TE. Our findings in the present work provide important strategies for mitigating overexploitation in fisheries. Conducting technical efficiency analysis of targeted fisheries is a vital issue to be considered for designing and realizing an effective implementation of fisheries management approaches. The large vessels and the enthusiasm of vessel owners/skippers need to be particularly addressed when vessel quantity limit is considered to mitigate the problem of overfishing.     

赣州市地质灾害分布特征及孕灾环境分析

赣州市地质灾害发生率和发生强度日益增高,对赣州市经济社会的发展造成了深远的影响,并对该地区的自然环境和人类生命财产安全构成了严重的威胁。通过对赣州市地质灾害孕育环境、发育规模、时空分布等进行实地调查以及对各种类型地质灾害发生数量进行数据统计与分析,开展了赣州市地质灾害的孕育、形成与防治研究。结果表明:赣州市地质灾害发生密度较高的地区主要是西部、南部、东南部以及东北部岩性较脆弱、地面变形严重的低山丘陵区;赣州市地质灾害的发生与该地区复杂的地形地貌、特殊的地层岩性、岩土体类型以及频繁的人类工程活动呈正相关关系。该研究可为该市的防灾救灾、人类工程建设提供理论依据。     

Assessment of inherent vulnerability of forests at landscape level: a case study from Western Ghats in India

Assessment of vulnerability is an important step in building long-term resilience in the forestry sector. The objective of this paper is to present a methodological approach to assess inherent vulnerability of forests at landscape level. The approach involves use of vulnerability indicators, the pairwise comparison method, and geographic information system (GIS) tools. We apply this approach to assess the inherent vulnerability of forests of the Western Ghats Karnataka (WGK) landscape, which is a part of the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot in India. Four vulnerability indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope, are selected. We find that forests in 30, 36, 19, and 15 % grid points in this region show low, medium, high, and very high inherent vulnerability, respectively. The forest showing high and very high inherent vulnerability are mostly dry deciduous forests and plantations located largely on the eastern side of the landscape. We also find that canopy cover is one of the key indicators that determine the inherent vulnerability of forests, and natural forests are inherently less vulnerable than man-made plantations. Spatial assessment of inherent vulnerability of forests at landscape level is particularly useful for developing strategies to build resilience to current stressors and climate change in future.     

Climate change implications for the nest site selection process and subsequent hatching success of a green turtle population

Sandy beach habitat where sea turtles nest will be affected by multiple climate change impacts. Before these impacts occur, knowledge of how nest site selection and hatching success vary with beach microhabitats is needed to inform managers on how to protect suitable habitats and prepare for scientifically valid mitigation measures at beaches around the world. At a highly successful green turtle (Chelonia mydas) rookery at Akumal, Quintana Roo, Mexico, we measured microhabitat characteristics along the beach crawl (rejected sites) and related nest site conditions (selected sites) to subsequent hatching success rates for 64 nesting events. To our knowledge, this is the first study to report environmental data along the nesting crawl for a green turtle population and the first to use natural breaks in the data to describe their preferred habitat ranges. Our results indicate that turtles were likely using a combination of cues to find nest sites, mainly higher elevations and lower sand surface temperatures (Kruskal-Wallis test, H?=?19.84, p?<?0.001; H?=?10.78, p?<?0.001). Hatching success was significantly and negatively correlated to sand temperature at cloaca depth (Spearman’s ρ?=??0.27, p?=?0.04). Indeed, the preferred range for cloaca sand temperatures at the nest site (26.3–27.5 °C) had significantly higher hatching success rates compared to the highest temperature range (Tukey HSD?=?0.47, p?=?0.05). Sand temperatures at various depths were intercorrelated, and surface and cloaca depth sand temperatures were correlated to air temperature (ρ?=?0.70, p?=?0.00; ρ?=?0.26, p?=?0.04). Therefore, rising air temperatures could alter sand temperature cues for suitable nest sites, preferred nest site ranges, and produce uneven sex ratios or lethal incubating temperatures. Elevation cues and preferred ranges (1.4–2.5 m) may also be affected by sea level rise, risking inundation of nests.     

Vulnerability of agro-ecological zones in India under the earth system climate model scenarios

India being a developing economy dependent on climate-sensitive sector like agriculture is highly vulnerable to impacts of global climate change. Vulnerability to climate change, however, differs spatially within the country owing to regional differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The study uses the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System (HadGEM-ES) climate projections to assess the dynamics in vulnerability across four climate change exposure scenarios developed using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The analysis was carried out at subnational (district) level; the results were interpreted and reported for their corresponding agro-ecological zones. Vulnerability of each district was quantified using indicators capturing climatic variability, ecological and demographic sensitivity, and socio-economic capacity. Our analysis further assigns probabilities to vulnerability classes of all the 579 districts falling under different agro-ecological zones. The results of the vulnerability profile show that Western plains, Northern plains, and central highlands of the arid and semi-arid agro-ecological zones are the most vulnerable regions in the current scenario (1950–2000). In the future scenario (2050), it extends along districts falling within Deccan plateau and Central (Malwa) highlands, lying in the arid and semi-arid zones, along with regions vulnerable in the current scenario, recording the highest vulnerability score across all exposure scenarios. These regions exhibit highest degree of variation in climatic parameters, ecological fragility, socio-economic marginality, and limited accessibility to resources, generating conditions of high vulnerability. The study emphasizes on the priority to take up adaptive management actions in the identified vulnerable districts to not only reduce risks of climate change, but also enhance their inherent capacity to withstand any future changes in climate. It provides a systematic approach to explicitly identify vulnerable regions, where regional planners and policy makers can build on existing adaptation decision-making by utilizing an interdisciplinary approach in the context of global change scenario.     

Identification of structural breaks in the forest product markets: how sensitive are to changes in the Nordic region?

Forests play a fundamental role in the global carbon cycle and can be managed to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and conserve or sequester carbon. Global policy and environmental changes can affect regional consumption of forest products, as well as inter-regional trade of forest goods and services. This study analyzes global and regional change impacts on the production, consumption and trade of forest products in two Nordic countries, Finland and Sweden. Annual data on removal and trade (1964–2012) for roundwood and sawnwood is used to identify structural breaks based on Chow tests. According to the analysis, the time period is divided into two periods: t1 (1964–1980) and t2 (1981–2012). In the first period, breaks occurred in 1975 and 1976 in the Finnish model and no break is found in the Swedish model. In the second period, we identify breaks in 1991 and 1992 for the Finnish model and in 2004, 2005 and 2006 for the Swedish model. Although our findings have broad empirical support, we do not identify any specific incident as a direct cause of the changes in the consumption and trade patterns of the two types of wood in these countries. The models and analysis presented here can serve as methodological tools for policymakers to better understand the effects of structural changes in the production of forest goods and services in the Nordic region and globally.     

The European Union Solidarity Fund: an assessment of its recent reforms

After extensive flooding in 2002, the European Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF) was created as an ex post loss-financing vehicle for EU member states and candidate countries in the case of disasters that exceed the government’s resources to cope. The EUSF is viewed as a valuable instrument for pooling risk among countries in Europe and potentially as a model for financing loss and damage from climate change in vulnerable countries worldwide. This paper assesses its future prospects taking account of reforms adopted in 2014. Our analysis is based on three recognized aims of the Solidarity Fund: its promotion of solidarity with those countries having the least capacity to cope with major disasters; its contribution to proactive disaster risk reduction and management (climate adaptation); and its robustness with regard to its risk of depletion (stress testing). Using a simulation approach for future disasters, we conclude that the reformed EUSF’s risk of depletion, although it is reasonably robust to more frequent disasters, could be reduced by increasing member state contributions and/or engaging in risk transfer. The European Commission has taken important steps in linking the fund to proactive risk reduction; yet, by changing its budgeting practices, the commission could be more proactive in encouraging risk management in member states. In its current form, the EUSF does not embed needs-based solidarity. Lower-income “new” member states have received disproportionately less compensation in terms of eligible losses, although on average, they have received more disaster aid than what they contribute to the fund. Solidarity could be enhanced by changing the rules for disbursing aid. After briefly describing alternative risk-pooling models in the Caribbean, Africa, and Europe, we suggest how design features of the EUSF as compared to other regional risk pools can inform discussions on the Warsaw International Loss and Damage Mechanism.     

Impacts of climate variability and changes on domestic water use in the Yellow River Basin of China

We present a methodology for using a domestic water use time series that were obtained from Yellow River Conservancy Commission, together with the climatic records from the National Climate Center of China to evaluate the effects of climate variability on water use in the Yellow River Basin. A suit of seven Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were adopted to anticipate future climate patterns in the Yellow River. The historical records showed evidences of rises in temperature and subsequent rises in domestic water demand in the basin. For Upstream of Longyangxia region, the impact was the least, with only 0.0021?×?10⁸ m³ for a temperature increase of 1 °C; while for Longyangxia-Lanzhou region, domestic water use was found to increase to 0.18?×?10⁸ m³ when temperature increases 1 °C. Downstream of Huayuankou was the region with the most changes in temperature that gave the highest increase of 1.95?×?10⁸ m³ in domestic water demand for 1 °C of change of temperature. Downstream of Huayuankou was identified as the most vulnerable area, where domestic water demand increases nearly by 42.2 % with 1 °C increase of temperature. Judging from the trends of temperature range, we concluded that future temperature in Yellow River Basin has an increasing tendency. This could worsen the existing issues of domestic water demand and even more to trigger high competition among different water-using sectors.