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31.
Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Sandra Brown Myrna Hall Ken Andrasko Fernando Ruiz Walter Marzoli Gabriela Guerrero Omar Masera Aaron Dushku Ben DeJong Joseph Cornell 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(6):1001-1026
Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C)
emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key
elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the
projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change
being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging
from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more
complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic
factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest
Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model.
The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic
conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State,
Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico.
A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines.
In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest
loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations
of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance
were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable)
in explaining empirical land-use patterns.
We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing
credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond
10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change
and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed
project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the
second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using
a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year
baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock
estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final
step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed.
This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new
roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation
could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated
into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection. 相似文献
32.
O'Neill MS Ramirez-Aguilar M Meneses-Gonzalez F Hernández-Avila M Geyh AS Sienra-Monge JJ Romieu I 《Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association (1995)》2003,53(3):339-346
In researching health effects of air pollution, pollutant levels from fixed-site monitors are commonly assigned to the subjects. However, these concentrations may not reflect the exposure these individuals actually experience. A previous study of ozone (O3) exposure and lung function among shoe-cleaners working in central Mexico City used fixed-site measurements from a monitoring station near the outdoor work sites as surrogates for personal exposure. The present study assesses the degree to which these estimates represented individual exposures. In 1996, personal O3 exposures of 39 shoe-cleaners working outdoors were measured using an active integrated personal sampler. Using mixed models, we assessed the relationship between measured personal O3 exposure and ambient O3 measurements from the fixed-site monitoring station. Ambient concentrations were approximately 50 parts per billion higher, on average, than personal exposures. The association between personal and ambient O3 was highly significant (mixed model slope p < 0.0001). The personal/ambient ratio was not constant, so use of the outdoor monitor would not be appropriate to rank O3 exposure and evaluate health effects between workers. However, the strong within-worker longitudinal association validates previous findings associating day-to-day changes in fixed-site O3 levels with adverse health effects among these shoe-cleaners and suggests fixed-site O3 monitors may adequately estimate exposure for other repeated-measure health studies of outdoor workers. 相似文献
33.
Manganese uptake and accumulation by the hyperaccumulator plant Phytolacca acinosa Roxb. (Phytolaccaceae) 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
Xue SG Chen YX Reeves RD Baker AJ Lin Q Fernando DR 《Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)》2004,131(3):393-399
The perennial herb Phytolacca acinosa Roxb. (Phytolaccaceae), which occurs in Southern China, has been found to be a new manganese hyperaccumulator by means of field surveys on Mn-rich soils and by glasshouse experiments. This species not only has remarkable tolerance to Mn but also has extraordinary uptake and accumulation capacity for this element. The maximum Mn concentration in the leaf dry matter was 19,300 microg/g on Xiangtan Mn tailings wastelands, with a mean of 14,480 microg/g. Under nutrient solution culture conditions, P. acinosa could grow normally with Mn supplied at a concentration of 8000 micromol/l, although with less biomass than in control samples supplied with Mn at 5 micromol/l. Manganese concentration in the shoots increased with increasing external Mn levels, but the total mass of Mn accumulated in the shoots first increased and then decreased. At an Mn concentration of 5000 micromol/l in the culture solution, the Mn accumulation in the shoot dry matter was highest (258 mg/plant). However, the Mn concentration in the leaves reached its highest value (36,380 microg/g) at an Mn supply level of 12,000 micromol/l. These results confirm that P. acinosa is an Mn hyperaccumulator which grows rapidly, has substantial biomass, wide distribution and a broad ecological amplitude. This species provides a new plant resource for exploring the mechanism of Mn hyperaccumulation, and has potential for use in the phytoremediation of Mn-contaminated soils. 相似文献
34.
López-Ovejero RF y Garcia AG de Carvalho SJ Christoffoleti PJ Neto DD Martins F Nicolai M 《Journal of environmental science and health. Part. B》2005,40(1):1-11
Brazilian off-season maize production is characterized by low yield due to several factors, such as climate variability and inadequate management practices, specifically weed management. Thus, the goal of this study was to determinate the critical period of weed competition in off-season maize (Zea mays L.) crop using thermal units or growing degree days (GDD) approach to characterize crop growth and development. The study was carried out in experimental area of the University of S?o Paulo, Brazil, with weed control (C), as well as seven coexistence periods, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 12 leaves, flowering, and all crop cycle; fourteen treatments were done. Climate data were obtained from a weather station located close to the experimental area. To determine the critical period for weed control (CPWC) logistic models were fitted to yield data obtained in both W and C, as a function of GDD. For an arbitrary maximum yield loss fixed in 2.5%, the CPWC was found between 301 and 484 GDD (7-8 leaves). Also, when the arbitrary loss yield was fixed in 5 and 10%, the period before interference (PBI) was higher than the critical weed-free period (CWFP), suggesting that the weeds control can be done with only one application, between 144 and 410 GDD and 131 and 444 GDD (3-8 leaves), respectively. The GDD approach to characterize crop growth and development was successfully used to determine the critical period of weeds control in maize sown off-season. Further works will be necessary to better characterize the interaction and complexity of maize sown off-season with weeds. However, these results are encouraging because the possibility of the results to be extrapolated and because the potential of the method on providing important results to researchers, specifically crop modelers. 相似文献
35.
Spinelli LF Schnaid F Selbach PA Bento FM Oliveira JR 《Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association (1995)》2005,55(4):421-429
This paper presents a study of the bioremediation of diesel oil and gasoline by a series of controlled laboratory tests. Sludge from an agroindustry was used to enhance bioremediation of both gasoline and diesel oil mixed with a soil mass to compare its efficiency with that of a mineral fertilizer. Effects of soil microbiology and soil mixtures were investigated by means of evolution of CO2, microorganism populations at 90 days, pH at 65 and 95 days, mineral nitrogen, and gas chromatographic analysis of the benzene, toluene, methyl tertiary butyl ether, C8, and C9+total aromatics at the end of the experiments. Treatments containing sludge showed better soil conditions after 170 days of treatment (inorganic nitrogen and microbiota activity) compared with gasoline and diesel oil without amendments. Samples had no detectable traces of the measured hydrocarbons at 170 days of treatment. 相似文献
36.
Bernd U Wiese María C Palancar José M Aragón Fernando Sánchez Roberto Gil 《Water environment research》2006,78(8):781-791
The Entrepe?as Reservoir is a monomictic reservoir located in River Tagus (Spain). The aim of this work is to establish a feasible model to predict the depth of the thermocline that is developed in the reservoir during the period of natural thermal stratification. Entrainment, eddy diffusion, inflow of external energy, and other factors are considered to calibrate the parameters of the model. The methodology involves the measure of actual temperature and electrical conductivity profiles, use of meteorological data and reservoir parameters, and selection and application of several models from the literature. The calculations and predictions are integrated to a software packet that is able to predict thermocline depth and water temperature profile during a 1-year period on a day-by-day basis. In the thermocline depth, the prediction error, on the basis of real data, is less than 6% and, in the water temperature, it is 2 degrees C. 相似文献
37.
Figueira R Pacheco AM Sousa AJ Catarino F 《Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)》2002,119(1):69-78
Blubber collected from beluga whales and ringed seals during subsistence hunts in the southern Baffin Island region of the Canadian Arctic were analysed for polychlorinated naphthalenes and eight planar PCB congeners (mono-ortho PCBs: 105, 114, 118 and 156; non-ortho PCBs: 77, 81, 126, 169). SigmaPCN (3-7 Cl) concentrations in blubber ranged from 35.9-383 pg/g (lipid weight; lw) in beluga and 35.4-71.3 pg/g (lw) in ringed seal. These represent the first measurements of PCNs in marine mammals in the Canadian Arctic, mammals which are an important part of the traditional diet of the indigenous population. SigmaCoplPCB concentrations were much higher, ranging from 15.5-317 ng/g (lw) in beluga whale blubber and 16.5-40.9 ng/g (lw) in ringed seal blubber. PCNs and coplanar PCBs both exhibit dioxin-like toxicity. Although average sigmaPCN concentrations were less than 1% of sigmaCoplPCBs, PCNs contribute up to 11% of TEQ relative to the coplanar PCBs based on TEFs determined by H4IIE enzyme assays. 相似文献
38.
Solid-phase micro-extraction (SPME) coupled on line with high resolution gas chromatography and mass spectrometric detection is described for the analysis of pesticides in environmental water samples. Experiments were performed in order to optimize the SPME extraction conditions for selected pesticides including tiomethon, trichorfon, dimethoate, diazinon, malathion, dicofol, methidathion, ethion, bromopropylate and pyrazophos from spiked water solutions. To enhance the SPME efficiency, experimental conditions including the fiber composition, stirring rate, temperature, adsorption time, desorption time and salt concentration were optimized. After validation, the SPME-GC/MS methodology was applied to real-world environmental water samples. 相似文献
39.
Bortagaray Viviana Girardi Viviane Pou Sonia Lizasoain Andrés Tort Luis Fernando López Spilki Fernando R. Colina Rodney Victoria Matias 《Food and environmental virology》2020,12(2):89-98
Food and Environmental Virology - The aim of this study was to detect, quantify, and assess the risk of infection and illness for Group A Rotavirus (RVA) in the watersheds of the Santa Lucia and... 相似文献
40.