The influence of land use and climate change on forest biomass and composition in Massachusetts, USA

Land use and climate change have complex and interacting effects on naturally dynamic forest landscapes. To anticipate and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and aggregate impacts on forest growth and composition. We conducted a simulation experiment to evaluate regional forest change in Massachusetts, USA over the next 50 years (2010-2060). Our objective was to estimate, assuming a linear continuation of recent trends, the relative and interactive influence of continued growth and succession, climate change, forest conversion to developed uses, and timber harvest on live aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species composition. We examined 20 years of land use records in relation to social and biophysical explanatory variables and used regression trees to create "probability-of-conversion" and "probability-of-harvest" zones. We incorporated this information into a spatially interactive forest landscape simulator to examine forest dynamics as they were affected by land use and climate change. We conducted simulations in a full-factorial design and found that continued forest growth and succession had the largest effect on AGB, increasing stores from 181.83 Tg to 309.56 Tg over 50 years. The increase varied from 49% to 112% depending on the ecoregion within the state. Compared to simulations with no climate or land use, forest conversion reduced gains in AGB by 23.18 Tg (or 18%) over 50 years. Timber harvests reduced gains in AGB by 5.23 Tg (4%). Climate change (temperature and precipitation) increased gains in AGB by 17.3 Tg (13.5%). Pinus strobus and Acer rubrum were ranked first and second, respectively, in terms of total AGB throughout all simulations. Climate change reinforced the dominance of those two species. Timber harvest reduced Quercus rubra from 10.8% to 9.4% of total AGB, but otherwise had little effect on composition. Forest conversion was generally indiscriminate in terms of species removal. Under the naive assumption that future land use patterns will resemble the recent past, we conclude that continued forest growth and recovery will be the dominant mechanism driving forest dynamics over the next 50 years, and that while climate change may enhance growth rates, this will be more than offset by land use, primarily forest conversion to developed uses.     

Genetic diversity and relatedness of the mangrove Rhizophora mangle L. (Rhizophoraceae) using amplified fragment polymorphism (AFLP) among locations in Florida, USA and the Caribbean

Rhizophora mangle L. is a widespread mangrove species in the Western Hemisphere. Mangrove habitat loss and their importance to coastal and reef ecosystems make greater understanding of their genetic structure useful for conservation and management. An amplified fragment polymorphism (AFLP) analysis was performed on samples from Florida and the Caribbean to discover the genetic structure present. R. mangle had variable genetic diversity not related to latitude; P ranged 7 %–92 %. Some other factor, perhaps human impact, has caused low genetic diversity in some populations. Across Florida R. mangle populations varied in genetic diversity with less diversity (G_st?=?0.195) and greater gene flow on the Atlantic coast (Nm =2.07) than on the Gulf coast (G_st?=?0.717, Nm?=?0.197). Gene flow between Caribbean islands was low (Nm?=?0.386) compared to continental populations (Nm?=?1.40), indicating that long distance dispersal is not common between islands. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) analysis showed significant deviations from Hardy-Weinberg expectations at the level of region among subpopulations and overall genetic difference among subpopulations for R. mangle. One implication for management is that small continental populations and island populations may be genetically isolated and distinct from each other.     

ALTERNATIVES FOR GROUND WATER LAW CHANGE IN ARIZONA1

ABSTRACT: Western state water resources are drawing increasing attention because of prolonged drought, pound-water overdraft and an ever-increasing awareness of insufficient Colorado River water to supply a growing population and meet industrial demand. Arizona is no exception, and the alarming decline in ground-water levels has prompted the Arizona State Legislature to adopt legislation establishing the Ground-Water Management Study Commission to recommend legislative action by 1979. This paper summarizes Arizona's ground water legislative history and discusses possible alternatives for change. The authors address specific issues facing the State and offer a set of possible Commission recommendations.     

Environmental risk: Management strategies in the developing world

This paper describes a heuristic model which helps to relate a developing nation's environmental risk to the level of sophistication appropriate in adjusting management strategy to dealing with environmental hazards. The model takes into account three factors: the degree of risk, the stage of economic growth, and the sophistication of adjustment. The interrelationship of these factors is examined, and the role of international cooperation in establishing strategies is outlined.     

Trends in Water Chemistry in a Maple Forest on a Steep Slope

Year-to-year variation in SO₄ ^2-,NO₃ ^-, Ca²⁺, K⁺, and Mg²⁺concentrations in forest floor and mineral soil percolatefrom a forested, podzolic soil at the Turkey Lakes Watershedon the Precambrian Shield was assessed for monotonic trendsbetween 1986 and 1995. Our objective was to examine howrapidly ion concentrations in soil percolate equilibratedafter stabilization of SO₄ ^2- concentrations inprecipitation. Significant negative trends were detected inmonthly Ca²⁺, and Mg²⁺ concentrations in forestfloor and SO₄ ^2-, Ca²⁺, and Mg²⁺ inmineral soil percolate during the 10-year-period. Thedecline in Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ was greater than annualdecreases in SO₄ ^2- and NO₃ ^- in forestfloor percolate and proportional to the reduction inSO₄ ^2- in mineral soil percolate. Response ofmineral soil percolate to a 15 mol_c L^-1SO₄ ^2- decrease in wet-only precipitation between1985 and 1986 was a gradual decline in SO₄ ^2-concentration through 1995. The five-year meanSO₄ ^2- concentration in bulk precipitation, forestfloor percolate, and mineral soil percolate decreased 8, 9and 18 mol_c L^-1 from 1986–90 to 1991–95.Microbial (mineralization of organic S) and sorption(release from and/or retention in the pool of insolubleSO₄ ^2-) processes in the soil were logicalexplanations for the observed changes in SO₄ ^2- inmineral soil percolate.     

SYSTEMS FOR RAINFALL AND RUNOFF USE,TUCSON, ARIZONA1

Rainfall and runoff in the Tucson, Arizona, urban area can be used to augment residential and municipal water supplies. Residential rainfall-harvesting systems include a catchment surface, collection and concentration components, separation and treatment units, storage capacity and distribution capability. A system to control runoff can divert water from urban washes for use in parks or other landscaped areas or can be used to enhance recharge to groundwater reservoirs. A reduction in flood hazards or peaks is a concurrent benefit of controlling and diverting runoff.     

Initial effects of light armored vehicle use on grassland vegetation at Fort Lewis, Washington

Sustainable use of military training lands requires understanding and prediction of the effects of military vehicles on vegetation. We examined the initial impacts of an 8-wheeled, light armored vehicle (LAV) on grassland vegetation at Fort Lewis, Washington. The LAV drove replicate spiral paths at two starting velocities, 10.3 and 5.1 m s(-1). The disturbed width (width of ground impacted by the tires) increased as turning radius decreased, but was unaffected by vehicle velocity. An inverse-exponential model predicted disturbed width (r(2)=0.68) at all turning radii for both velocities combined. In low-velocity spirals, and for straight tracking (turning radius>40 m) and moderate turns (radius 20-40 m) in high-velocity spirals, all vegetation damage was imprint (plants flattened by wheels). During sharp (radius <20 m), high-velocity turns, most or all of the disturbed width was scraped free of surface vegetation and soil, which was piled to the outside of each tire track. Total plant cover (all species) was not affected by track curvature in low-velocity spirals, but decreased in the order straight tracking>moderate turns>sharp turns in high-velocity spirals. In low-velocity spirals, post-tracking cover of several plant growth forms (non-native species, perennial species, sod-forming grasses) was similar to pre-tracking cover, but in high-velocity spirals, post-tracking cover of these growth forms decreased in the order straight > or =moderate=sharp. Cover of native species and forbs decreased more in high- than in low-velocity spirals, but was unaffected by curvature. Pre- and post-tracking cover of annual species, bunchgrasses, and shrubs was < or =3%. The most severe vegetation damage caused by operation of wheeled LAVs on grasslands is associated with sharp, high-velocity turns.