Modelling with uncertainty: Introducing a probabilistic framework to predict animal population dynamics

Predictive population models designed to assist managers and policy makers require an explicit treatment of inherent uncertainty and variability. These are particular concerns when modelling non-native and reintroduced species, when data have been collected within one geographical or ecological context but predictions are required for another, or when extending models to predict the consequences of environmental change (e.g., climate or land-use). We present an aspatial, probabilistic framework of hierarchical process models for predicting population growth even when data are sparse or of poor quality. Insight into the factors affecting population dynamics in real landscapes can be provided and Kullback–Leibler distances are used to compare the relative output of models. This flexible yet robust framework gives easily interpretable results, allowing managers as well as modellers to invalidate anomalous models and apply others to real-life scenarios.We illustrate the framework’s power with a meta-analysis of European wild boar (Sus scrofa) data. We test hypotheses about the effect of geographic region, hunting and mast years on wild boar population growth, to build models of wild boar dynamics for the UK. The framework quantifies the importance of hunting pressure as a driver of population growth, and confirms that reproductive success is greatly decreased in poor mast years, suggesting that the key to predicting wild boar dynamics is to ascertain local hunting pressure and to better understand changing food availability. Geography had no significant effect, indicating that it is not a good proxy for modelling the impact of change in climate or land-use on wild boar populations at the European scale. We use the framework to predict population abundance 9 years after an isolated population of wild boar established in the UK; in a comparison with the only field data and two independent modelling exercises, our framework provides the most robust and informative results.     

Prevalence of the Crayfish Plague Pathogen Aphanomyces astaci in Invasive American Crayfishes in the Czech Republic

Abstract:  In Central Europe invasive North American crayfishes are carriers of the oomycete Aphanomyces astaci, which causes crayfish plague. This lethal disease currently represents one of the major threats to native European crayfishes. We used molecular methods—species-specific amplification and sequencing of the pathogen DNA—to investigate the prevalence of individuals latently infected with A. astaci in 28 populations of two invasive American crayfish species (6 of the signal crayfish [ Pacifastacus leniusculus ] and 22 of the spiny-cheek crayfish [ Orconectes limosus ]) in the Czech Republic. The pathogen occurred in 17 investigated populations. We recorded a high variation in positive reactions, ranging from 0% to 100%, in populations of O. limosus . In P. leniusculus, however, only one individual out of 124 tested positive for the pathogen. There was a clear relationship between the water body type and pathogen prevalence in O. limosus . Infection ratios in isolated standing waters were usually low, whereas in running waters, pathogen prevalence often exceeded 50%. Other evaluated characteristics of potential plague pathogen carriers (size, sex, and the presence of melanized spots in the cuticle) seemed to be unrelated to infection. Our data suggest that in contrast to other European countries, O. limosus seems to be the primary reservoir of crayfish plague in the Czech Republic. Although all populations of alien American crayfishes may be potential sources of infections and should be managed as such, knowledge on the prevalence of the plague pathogen at various localities may allow managers to focus conservation efforts on the most directly endangered populations of native crayfishes.     

Aldehyde and Monocyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Mixing Ratios at an Urban Site in Las Vegas,Nevada

ABSTRACT

Linhong Jing completed a master's degree in chemistry at UNLV and is currently enrolled in the Ph.D. program at Purdue University. Her address is Department of Chemistry, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907. Dr. Spencer Steinberg is an associate professor of chemistry at UNLV. His address is UNLV Department of Chemistry, P.O. Box 454003, Las Vegas, NV 89154-4003. Dr. Brian Johnson is an associate professor of chemistry at UNLV. His address is UNLV Department of Chemistry, P.O. Box 454003, Las Vegas, NV 89154-4003.

Oxidation of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (BTEX) in air, of significance due to, for example, the potential for O₃ formation, is believed to be initiated by OH attack on the ring (addition) or on the alkyl side chain (H abstraction). A series of ring-breaking reactions follows, with major products predicted to be a-dicarbonyls, simple aldehydes, and organic acids. To test this prediction, ambient air mixing ratios of aldehydes (formaldehyde, ac-etaldehyde, benzaldehyde, glyoxal, and pyruvaldehyde), along with some supporting BTEX data, were measured at an urban site in Las Vegas, NV. Samples were collected on sorbents and determined by chromatographic methods; mixing ratios were compared to ambient levels of CO, O₃, and NO_x. A meteorological analysis (temperature, wind speed, and wind direction) was also included. Statistically significant relationships were noted among the BTEX hydrocarbons (HCs) and among the photochemi-cally derived species (e.g., O₃, NO₂, and some of the aldehydes), although there was seasonal variation. The observations are consistent with a common primary source (i.e., vehicular exhaust or fuel evaporation) for the BTEX compounds and a common secondary source (e.g., OH attack) for glyoxal and pyruvaldehyde.     

δ 13C and δ 15N variations in organic matter pools, Mytilus spp. and Macoma balthica along the European Atlantic coast

Stable carbon (δ ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ ¹⁵N) isotope (SI) values of sedimentary organic matter (SOM), seston and two dominant bivalves, Mytilus spp. and Macoma balthica, were studied at 18 stations along the European coast in spring and autumn 2004. Three main regions, the Baltic Sea (BS), the North Sea and English Channel (NS), and the Bay of Biscay (BB), were tested for possible geographic (latitudinal) differences in the SI values. In spring, only BS showed lower δ ¹³C values of seston and Mytilus spp., and higher δ ¹⁵N values of SOM, than NS and BB. No significant differences between the 3 regions were found in autumn. Irrespective of season and regions, Mytilus spp. was more ¹³C-depleted than M. balthica. δ ¹³C values of M. balthica, but not those of Mytilus spp., were significantly correlated with SOM. These results are consistent with differences in feeding behavior of Mytilus spp. and M. balthica, as the two species are known as obligatory-suspension and facultative-deposit feeders, respectively. In contrast, no differences in the δ ¹⁵N values of Mytilus spp. and M. balthica were found at individual stations, indicating the same trophic level of the two bivalves within the food webs. At some stations, irrespective of geographic location, both bivalves showed δ ¹⁵N values up to 18–20 ‰. These were two trophic levels higher than those found at the other stations, indicating local and/or episodic eutrophic conditions, probably due to waste water discharge, and the effectiveness of both Mytilus spp. and M. balthica as bio-indicators of anthropogenic eutrophication. Overall, our results suggest that pathways of energy flow from OM pools to dominant bivalves is more related to local environmental conditions than to geographic regions across the European coastline. This has implications for food web studies along the Atlantic coast because most of the values are consistent over a large area and show no significant differences. Therefore, the present study can be used twofold for the determination of trophic baselines and for the correction of the trophic position of consumers higher up in the food web in the case of differences in waste water discharge.     

Analysis of two schemes using micro hydroelectric power (MHPs) in the Amazon with environmental sustainability and energy and economic feasibility

A major problem for sustainable development in the Amazon is the difficulty of supplying electric power to isolated communities, which represent a considerable share of the population. This problem has been a major obstacle to productive activities (especially extractive and agricultural) in such communities, thus significantly contributing to rural drift and creating social problems in larger cities. In that case, one way to supply electric power would be to use the huge network of small rivers in the region by implementing Micro Hydroelectric Power Plants (MHPs). However, this type of hydropower project requires a set of technical assessments in order to obtain better value for its cost-effectiveness from the perspective of sustainable development. Thus, based on a survey of energy demand and the local hydrological and topographical characteristics, two possible MHP designs for the hydrological site under analysis were suggested. Assessments of hydropower, economic and environmental aspects were developed. MHP designs were compared with the diesel generator design of the community under focus. Comparison showed that the MHP designs are feasible in terms of energy to meet local demand; economically, they are more feasible than the diesel generator and are environmentally sustainable, mainly because such designs involve low-head, run-of-river MHPs and the flooded areas were simulated and are not larger than 0.02 km². Therefore, the information provided by these assessments constitutes important data, serving as subsidies for MHP implementation projects, which shall contribute to sustainable development in the region.     

Humic acid in ice: Photo-enhanced conversion of nitrogen dioxide into nitrous acid

Laboratory studies on the heterogeneous conversion of nitrogen dioxide into nitrous acid on irradiated ice films containing humic acid are described. It was found that the presence of light in the visible range of the solar spectrum significantly enhances the rate of nitrous acid release from a humic acid doped ice film. This process might contribute to observed HONO production in snow, where the NO₂ is thought to originate from nitrate photolysis. Analysis of the experimental data based on the Langmuir Hinshelwood model framework allowed quantification of the observed dependencies of the nitrous acid production rate on nitrogen dioxide concentration. The observed dependencies on the humic acid concentration as well as on the irradiation intensity were used to estimate light-driven HONO fluxes for environmental snow covers.     

Ants as a Measure of Effectiveness of Habitat Conservation Planning in Southern California

Abstract: In the United States multispecies habitat conservation plans were meant to be the solution to conflicts between economic development and protection of biological diversity. Although now widely applied, questions exist concerning the scientific credibility of the conservation planning process and effectiveness of the plans. We used ants to assess performance of one of the first regional conservation plans developed in the United States, the Orange County Central‐Coastal Natural Community Conservation Plan (NCCP), in meeting its broader conservation objectives of biodiversity and ecosystem‐level protection. We collected pitfall data on ants for over 3 years on 172 sites established across a network of conservation lands in coastal southern California. Although recovered native ant diversity for the study area was high, site‐occupancy models indicated the invasive and ecologically disruptive Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) was present at 29% of sites, and sites located within 200 m of urban and agricultural areas were more likely to have been invaded. Within invaded sites, native ants were largely displaced, and their median species richness declined by more than 60% compared with uninvaded sites. At the time of planning, 24% of the 15,133‐ha reserve system established by Orange County NCCP fell within 200 m of an urban or agricultural edge. With complete build out of lands surrounding the reserve, the proportion of the reserve system vulnerable to invasion will grow to 44%. Our data indicate that simply protecting designated areas from development is not enough. If habitat conservation plans are to fulfill their conservation promise of ecosystem‐level protection, a more‐integrated and systematic approach to the process of habitat conservation planning is needed.     

Impact of a Community‐Based Payment for Environmental Services Intervention on Forest Use in Menabe,Madagascar

Abstract: Despite the growing interest in conservation approaches that include payments for environmental services (PES), few evaluations of the influence of such interventions on behaviors of individuals have been conducted. We used self‐reported changes in six legal and illegal forest‐use behaviors to investigate the way in which a PES for biodiversity conservation intervention in Menabe, Madagascar, influenced behavior. Individuals (n =864) from eight intervention communities and five control communities answered questions on their forest‐use behaviors before and after the intervention began, as well as on their reasons for changing and their attitudes to various institutions. The payments had little impact on individuals’ reported decisions to change behaviors, but it had a strong impact on individuals’ attitudes. Payments appeared to legitimize monitoring of behaviors by the implementing nongovernmental organization (NGO), but did not act as a behavioral driver in their own right. Although there were no clear differences between changes in behaviors in the intervention and control communities, the intervention did influence motivations for change. Fear of local forest associations and the implementing NGO were strong motivators for changing behavior in communities with the PES intervention, whereas fear of the national government was the main reason given for change in control communities. Behavioral changes were most stable where fear of local organizations motivated the change. Our results highlight the interactions between different incentives people face when making behavioral decisions and the importance of considering the full range of incentives when designing community‐based PES interventions.     

A mass transfer model of ammonia volatilisation from anaerobic digestate

Anaerobic digestion (AD) is becoming increasingly popular for treating organic waste. The methane produced can be burned to generate electricity and the digestate, which is high in mineral nitrogen, can be used as a fertiliser. In this paper we evaluate potential losses of ammonia via volatilisation from food waste anaerobic digestate using a closed chamber system equipped with a sulphuric acid trap. Ammonia losses represent a pollution source and, over long periods could reduce the agronomic value of the digestate. Observed ammonia losses from the experimental system were linear with time. A simple non-steady-state partitioning model was developed to represent the process. After calibration, the model was able to describe the behaviour of ammonia in the digestate and in the trap very well. The average rate of volatilisation was approximately 5.2 g N m^?2 week^?1. The model was used to extrapolate the findings of the laboratory study to a number of AD storage scenarios. The simulations highlight that open storage of digestate could result in significant losses of ammonia to the atmosphere. Losses are predicted to be relatively minor from covered facilities, particularly if depth to surface area ratio is high.