Estimating means and variances: The comparative efficiency of composite and grab samples

This paper compares the efficiencies of two sampling techniques for estimating a population mean and variance. One procedure, called grab sampling, consists of collecting and analyzing one sample per period. The second procedure, called composite sampling, collectsn samples per period which are then pooled and analyzed as a single sample. We review the well known fact that composite sampling provides a superior estimate of the mean. However, it is somewhat surprising that composite sampling does not always generate a more efficient estimate of the variance. For populations with platykurtic distributions, grab sampling gives a more efficient estimate of the variance, whereas composite sampling is better for leptokurtic distributions. These conditions on kurtosis can be related to peakedness and skewness. For example, a necessary condition for composite sampling to provide a more efficient estimate of the variance is that the population density function evaluated at the mean (i.e.f()) be greater than . If , then a grab sample is more efficient. In spite of this result, however, composite sampling does provide a smaller estimate of standard error than does grab sampling in the context of estimating population means.     

Empowering women. The solution to a global crisis

Norway's Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland holds a medical degree from the University of Oslo and a Master's degree in Public Health from Harvard University. She served as Norway's Minister of the Environment during 1974-79, and was elected to the Norwegian parliament in 1977. Brundtland is currently chairperson of the World Commission on Environment and Development with ten years of experience as a physician and twenty years as a politician. An edited version of her keynote address to the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development is presented. The Minister's experience has taught her that improved life conditions, a greater range of choices, access to unbiased information, and true international solidarity are the signs of human progress. She stresses the need to empower people, educate them, care for their health, and provide them with equal opportunity to achieve economically. Available combined resources need to be used more efficiently through a reformed and better coordinated UN system, policies must be changed, the role and status of women strengthened, safe, comprehensive reproductive health services provided, and measures taken to achieve a balance between population size and sustainable development in keeping with available global resources.     

Immunity in children with exposure to environmental lead: II. Effects on humoral immunity

Lead has been found to depress the immune system in animal studies at levels far below those responsible for overt toxicity. Literature studies in animal systems most clearly showed an effect of lead on response to a specific immunogenic stimulus. Data are sparse concerning the effects of lead on the immune system in the human population at greatest risk for exposure-children up to six years of age. This portion of the Phase I study reports concentrations of IgG, IgM, IgA, and IgE, as well as antibody titers to the specific antigenic stimuli provided by the vaccines against diphtheria, tetanus, and Rubella. The study population consisted of a group of 193 children, ages 9 months to 6 years, who participate in the WIC (Women, Infants and Children) and Lead Poisoning Prevention Programs in the urban area of Springfield-Greene County Missouri. Blood lead levels ranged from 1 to 50 g dL^–1. Total Ig levels were determined and the data were analysed. No consistent significant differences were observed among the risk categories in the five age groups examined. A single Ig class in each of three age groups showed apparent significant differences among the various risk categories, but these differences were not correlated with blood lead. An analysis of specific antibody titers to diphtheria, tetanus, and Rubella was performed. Regression analyses of current data in Phase I of this study suggest a detrimental effect of lead on the antibody titres to diphtheria and Rubella.     

Book reviews

Cost Benefit Analysis of Environmental Change

Per‐Olov Johansson

Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1993, 232 pp., £13.95

Computerised Environmental Modelling: A Practical Introduction using Excel

J. Hardisty, D. M. Taylor & S. E. Metcalfe

Chichester, Wiley, 1993, 204 pp., £14.95

Keeping Pace with Science and Engineering: Case Studies in Environmental Regulation

Washington DC, US National Academy of Engineering, 1993

World Without End: Economics, Environment and Sustainable Development

D. W. Pearce & J. J. Warford

Oxford University Press, New York, 1993, 440 pp., £35.95     

Estimating the change of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere from 18 000 BP to present using a carbon cycle model

The authors used a global High Resolution Biosphere Model (HRBM), consisting of a biome model and a carbon cycle model, to estimate the changes of carbon storage in the major pools of the terrestrial biosphere from 18 000 BP to present. The climate change data to drive the biosphere for 18 000 BP were derived from an Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Using the AGCM anomalies interpolated to a 0.5 degrees grid, the HRBM data base of the present climate was recalculated for 18 000 BP. The most important processes which influenced the carbon storage include (1) climate-induced changes in biospheric processes and vegetation distribution, (2) the CO(2) fertilization effect, (3) the inundation of lowland areas resulting from the sea level rise of 100 m. Two scenarios were investigated. The first scenario, which ignored the CO(2) fertilization effect, led to total carbon losses from the terrestrial biosphere of -460 x 10(9) t. Scenario 2, which assumed that the model formulation of the CO(2) fertilization effect as used for preindustrial to present could be extrapolated to the glacial 200 microl litre(-1) (ppmv, parts per million per volume), gave a carbon fixation in the terrestrial biosphere of +213 x 10(9) t. The two scenarios were compared with CO(2) concentration data and isotopic ratios from air in ice cores. The results of Scenario 1 are not in agreement with the data. Scenario 2 gives realistic delta(13)C shifts in the atmosphere but the biospheric carbon storage at the end of the glacial period seems too large. The authors suggest that the low atmospheric CO(2) concentration may have favoured the C-4 plants in ice age vegetation types. As a consequence the influence of the low CO(2) concentration was eventually reduced and the glacial carbon storage in vegetation, litter, and soil was increased.     

Interactions between copper and cadmium modify metal organ distribution in mature tilapia, Oreochromis mossambicus

Sexually mature female tilapia were exposed to sublethal concentrations of waterborne Cu and/or Cd over 6 days, and subsequent body concentrations of these metals were determined in several organs. The results show that the distribution of Cu and Cd was metal and organ specific. This is demonstrated, for example, by the observation that in tilapia, Cu exposure did not result in Cu accumulation in the liver, whereas in the intestinal wall, notably high concentrations of Cu and Cd were measured in metal exposed fish. In addition to single metal exposed fish, we also determined Cu and Cd body distribution in Cu?Cd co-exposed fish. The observed interactions in metal accumulation were most pronounced in the organs of fish exposed to low, environmentally realistic, metal concentrations.     

Marginal bleaching of thalli of Rhizocarpon as evidence for acid rain in the Norra Storfjället, Sweden

Recent lichen surveys in the foreland of The Syterb?cken glacier reveal that the crustose lichens, principally species of Rhizocarpon section Rhizocarpon, exhibit marginal bleaching, readily distinguishable from normal pigmented forms. The largest elliptical thallus of Rhizocarpon measured 290 mm maximum diameter on a bedrock outcrop beyond the margin of Little Ice Age moraines in the upper Syterb?cken Valley. Many small and large thalli of Rhizocarpon suffered damage to the periphery of individual thalli. We examine here some of the possible hypotheses explaining these occurrences. Among others, these are bedrock lithology, ice crystal blasting, long-term snowbank cover, ultraviolet exposure and acid rain. While at this time none of the possibilities can be ruled out entirely, acid rain would appear to be at least one of the factors involved. Acid rain, which is known to produce a soil pH as low as 3.3 in the field area, appears to provide a high input of H(+) ions that the lichen algal component cannot withstand. However, the lack of similar effects on associated foliose or fruticose forms raises the possibility that perhaps two or more factors specific to the environment of Rhizocarpon are operating.     

Linear least squares method for time series analysis with an application to a methane time series

A simple method of time series analysis, based upon linear least squares curve fitting, is developed. The method's advantages and disadvantages are discussed, and an example is presented using the Vostok Core methane record.     

Fractionation of Cu, Pb and Zn in certified reference soils SRM 2710 and SRM 2711 using the optimized BCR sequential extraction procedure

Sequential extraction of metals from solid media is a common analytical tool used in environmental and exploration geochemistry. A number of procedures exist, but without harmonization and standardization, meaningful comparisons are tenuous without baseline data. A newly developed, standardized sequential extraction procedure (optimized BCR) was applied to two contaminated certified reference soils from Montana, US (SRM 2710 and SRM 2711) for Cu, Pb and Zn. Four operationally defined fractions were isolated, acid extractable, reducible, oxidizable, and residual (by aqua regia). Fraction-specific concentrations, percentages and recoveries for Cu, Pb and Zn were used to explore differences between the optimized BCR procedure and three other sequential extraction schemes with published data for SRM 2710 and 2711 (i.e. Tessier scheme, Geological Survey of Canada scheme and the original BCR scheme). Results indicate significant differences between the four schemes, even for schemes that are closely associated (i.e. the original and optimized BCR schemes). Order-of-magnitude fraction-specific concentration differences were observed, especially for Pb in the reducible fraction. Differences between schemes are worrisome because trends varied between metals, between fractions and between reference soils. These data reinforce the need for increased adoption of standardized sequential extraction procedures and further examination of different solid media.     

Ecoprofit-Styria-prepare Thirteen pollution prevention case studies in the Styrian industry

The paper focuses upon the organization of a federal state-funded pollution prevention project in the Styrian industry. The project includes 13 companies from the textile, pulp and paper, machine building, wood working and printed circuit board manufacturing industries, covering most of the sectors and sizes in the Styrian industry. It started in January 1994 and will last for one year. It will demonstrate the possibilities of pollution prevention and the need for further research work. This project will make use of the methods and tools that were refined in the Austrian Prepare project. As a first step, a systematic balance of all the inputs and outputs of a company is made, after which the weak points and inefficiencies of material and energy use are identified and the options for improvements, both economical and ecological, are defined. Consequently, modifications in products and production lead to a situation with less waste and emissions. The preliminary lessons from these projects are presented: as a rule, the utilities (consumption of process materials and water, cleaning, energy, preparatory and finishing steps) are treated as black boxes and usually represent a considerable optimization potential. In these areas especially there is usually a lack of information and coordination as well as a need for a systematic and comprehensive approach. Leadership in the company and creative consultants are needed for starting lasting successful pollution prevention projects.