Large-sample-size assessment of socioeconomic predictors of community-level resource management occurrence

Community-level resource management efforts are cornerstones in ensuring sustainable use of natural resources. Yet, understanding how community characteristics influence management practices remains contested. With a sample size of ≥725 communities, we assessed the effects of key community (i.e., socioeconomic) characteristics (human population size and density, market integration, and modernization) on the probability of occurrence of fisheries management practices, including gear, species, and spatial restrictions. The study was based in Solomon Islands, a Pacific Island country with a population that is highly dependent on coastal fisheries. People primarily dwell in small communities adjacent to the coastline dispersed across 6 island provinces and numerous smaller islands. We used nationally collected data in binomial logistic regression models to examine the likelihood of management occurrence, given socioeconomic context of communities. In contrast to prevailing views, we identified a positive and statistically significant association between both human population size and market integration and all 3 management practices. Human population density, however, had a statistically significant negative association and modernization a varied and limited association with occurrence of all management practices. Our method offers a way to remotely predict the occurrence of resource management practices based on key socioeconomic characteristics. It could be used to improve understanding of why some communities conduct natural resource management activities when statistical patterns suggest they are not likely to and thus improve understanding of how some communities of people beat the odds despite limited market access and high population density.     

Genetic diversity and population structure of the Chinese mitten crab <Emphasis Type="Italic">Eriocheir sinensis</Emphasis> in its native range

The Chinese mitten crab Eriocheir sinensis is an indigenous and economically important species in China, but can also be found as invasive species in Europe and America. Mitten crabs have been exploited extensively as a food resource since the 1990s. Despite its ecological and economic importance, the genetic structure of native mitten crab populations is not well understood. In this paper, we investigated the genetic structure of mitten crab populations in China by screening samples from ten locations covering six river systems at six microsatellite loci. Our results provide further evidence that mitten crabs from the River Nanliujiang in Southern China are a genetically differentiated population within the native range of Eriocheir, and should be recognized as a separate taxonomic unit. In contrast, extremely low levels of genetic differentiation and no significant geographic population structure were found among the samples located north of the River Nanliujiang. Based on the reproductive biology of mitten crabs and the geography of their habitat we argue that both natural and human-mediated gene flow are unlikely to fully account for the similar allele frequency distributions at microsatellite loci. Large population sizes of mitten crabs suggest instead that a virtual absence of genetic drift and significant homoplasy of microsatellite alleles have contributed to the observed pattern. Furthermore, a coalescent-based maximum likelihood method indicated a more than two-fold lower effective population size of the Southern population compared to the Northern Group and low but significant levels of gene flow between both areas.     

Uranium in stream and mineral water of the Federal Republic of Germany

The concentration of uranium was determined in 944 samples from stream water by the inductively coupled plasma quadrupole mass spectrometry (ICP-QMS) method and represented on a color-shaded contour map. Uranium concentrations in surface water were determined to be between 0.007 μg/l and 43.7 μg/l with median of 0.33 μg/l. The regional distribution of uranium is influenced primarily by lithological and anthropogenic factors. In Mecklenburg, northern Brandenburg, and eastern Schleswig-Holstein, elevated uranium concentrations coincide with the extent of the last Weichselian ice sheet. The maximum concentrations are observed in the surface waters of the old mining districts in the western part of the Ore Mountains and in eastern Thuringia. Elevated concentrations are found in areas of agriculturally used loess soils. These concentrations correlate with the use of phosphate fertilizers. There is a zone of elevated concentrations up to 10.0 μg U/l in the Keuper Sandstone area south of the Thuringian Forest and from northwest of Stuttgart as far as Coburg. The distribution of elevated values in mineral water shows a clear correlation with the elevated values in surface water and the geology of those locations. Bunter and Keuper strata are the most important uranium source.     

A model for estimation of potential generation of waste electrical and electronic equipment in Brazil

Sales of electrical and electronic equipment are increasing dramatically in developing countries. Usually, there are no reliable data about quantities of the waste generated. A new law for solid waste management was enacted in Brazil in 2010, and the infrastructure to treat this waste must be planned, considering the volumes of the different types of electrical and electronic equipment generated.This paper reviews the literature regarding estimation of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE), focusing on developing countries, particularly in Latin America. It briefly describes the current WEEE system in Brazil and presents an updated estimate of generation of WEEE. Considering the limited available data in Brazil, a model for WEEE generation estimation is proposed in which different methods are used for mature and non-mature market products.The results showed that the most important variable is the equipment lifetime, which requires a thorough understanding of consumer behavior to estimate. Since Brazil is a rapidly expanding market, the “boom” in waste generation is still to come. In the near future, better data will provide more reliable estimation of waste generation and a clearer interpretation of the lifetime variable throughout the years.     

Chorus model of the synchronizing bushcricket species Mecopoda elongata

Males of the Malaysian bushcricket species Mecopoda elongata synchronize or alternate their cyclically occurring song elements (chirps) in a duet. The acoustic interaction of males interacting in a duet was successfully simulated by means of mutually coupled song oscillators, which respond to a disturbance by a phase shift which is known from the phase response curves (PRCs) of real males. However, little is known about the acoustic interaction of males in a complex chorus situation. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to extend the duet model to a chorus taking into account an inhomogeneous spacing of agents and a natural variability of oscillator properties. This chorus model was used to study oscillator coupling in a chorus consisting of 15 agents. Since such a computer model allows one to simulate chorus manipulations that far exceed the possibilities of behaviour experiments, the following scenarios were simulated: modification of chorus density, sensory bias during sound production, selective attention to only a subset of neighbors and males joining or leaving a chorus. Simulation results allow one to draw conclusions about the chorusing behavior of males in a real chorus and about signaler and receiver aspects influencing chorusing formation and mate choice.     

Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity

Climate change in Canadian boreal forests is usually associated with increased drought severity and fire activity. However, future fire activity could well be within the range of values experienced during the preindustrial period. In this study, we contrast 21st century forecasts of fire occurrence (FireOcc, number of large forest fires per year) in the southern part of the Boreal Shield, Canada, with the historical range of the past 240 years statistically reconstructed from tree-ring width data. First, a historical relationship between drought indices and FireOcc is developed over the calibration period 1959-1998. Next, together with seven tree-ring based drought reconstructions covering the last 240 years and simulations from the CGCM3 and ECHAM4 global climate models, the calibration model is used to estimate past (prior to 1959) and future (post 1999) FireOcc. Last, time-dependent changes in mean FireOcc and in the occurrence rate of extreme fire years are evaluated with the aid of advanced methods of statistical time series analysis. Results suggest that the increase in precipitation projected toward the end of the 21st century will be insufficient to compensate for increasing temperatures and will be insufficient to maintain potential evapotranspiration at current levels. Limited moisture availability would cause FireOcc to increase as well. But will future FireOcc exceed its historical range? The results obtained from our approach suggest high probabilities of seeing future FireOcc reach the upper limit of the historical range. Predictions, which are essentially weighed on northwestern Ontario and eastern boreal Manitoba, indicate that, by 2061-2100, typical FireOcc could increase by more than 34% when compared with the past two centuries. Increases in fire activity as projected by this study could negatively affect the implementation in the next century of forest management inspired by historical or natural disturbance dynamics. This approach is indeed feasible only if current and future fire activities are sufficiently low compared with the preindustrial fire activity, so a substitution of fire by forest management could occur without elevating the overall frequency of disturbance. Conceivable management options will likely have to be directed toward minimizing the adverse impacts of the increasing fire activity.     

World coal outlook: 1990s

In the 1990s for the newly industrializing nations of the Pacific Rim and for the OECD countries as well, the demand for energy is expected to increase at a rate in excess of that of the increase in GNP. The demand for coal is likely to increase as well but probably to a lesser degree than GNP. This is because coal can expect increasing competition not from oil, but from natural gas. For a whole host of reasons, economic as well as environmental, gas could be the preferred fuel of the 1990s. Nevertheless, coal prices can be expected to increase but low cost production due to come on stream shortly, is likely to keep those increases modest.