A fuzzy logic expert system for evaluating policy progress towards sustainability goals

Evaluating progress towards environmental sustainability goals can be difficult due to a lack of measurable benchmarks and insufficient or uncertain data. Marine settings are particularly challenging, as stakeholders and objectives tend to be less well defined and ecosystem components have high natural variability and are difficult to observe directly. Fuzzy logic expert systems are useful analytical frameworks to evaluate such systems, and we develop such a model here to formally evaluate progress towards sustainability targets based on diverse sets of indicators. Evaluation criteria include recent (since policy enactment) and historical (from earliest known state) change, type of indicators (state, benefit, pressure, response), time span and spatial scope, and the suitability of an indicator in reflecting progress toward a specific objective. A key aspect of the framework is that all assumptions are transparent and modifiable to fit different social and ecological contexts. We test the method by evaluating progress towards four Aichi Biodiversity Targets in Canadian oceans, including quantitative progress scores, information gaps, and the sensitivity of results to model and data assumptions. For Canadian marine systems, national protection plans and biodiversity awareness show good progress, but species and ecosystem states overall do not show strong improvement. Well-defined goals are vital for successful policy implementation, as ambiguity allows for conflicting potential indicators, which in natural systems increases uncertainty in progress evaluations. Importantly, our framework can be easily adapted to assess progress towards policy goals with different themes, globally or in specific regions.     

Influence of Motivations for Seeking ISO 14001 Certification on Perceptions of EMS Effectiveness in China

This study examines the motivations of mainland Chinese facilities in seeking ISO 14001 certification and examines the linkages between these motivations and self-reports of the effectiveness of major environmental management system (EMS) components. In a sample of 128 facilities in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, the main drivers for certification were reported to be to ensure regulatory compliance, to enhance the firms reputation, and to improve environmental performance, in that order. Although motivation to achieve cost reductions were least emphasized, a broad range of motivations appears to be considered in the decision to seek certification to ISO 14001. Regression models linking these motivations to the EMS components suggests that internal motivations have an influence on most EMS components. One interesting exception to this, however, is that no significant relationship was observed between internal motivations and the promulgation of environmental objectives and targets. The relationships associated with external motivations for certification (i.e., those in response to customer and other stakeholder pressures) and EMS components, on the other hand, are weaker and tend to occur earlier in the process cycle. No significant relationships were found between motivations to reduce costs and perceptions of the effectiveness of EMS components. Overall, these findings suggest that ISO 14001, as currently being implemented in mainland China, may have a modestly useful role when used in combination with other policy mechanisms to move the Chinese economy toward more sustainable practices. It is asserted that the ISO standard could provide even greater benefits if Chinese registrars were more proactive in developing EMS in conjunction with even more rigorous third-party audits.Published online     

Impact of impulsiveness, venturesomeness, and empathy on driving by older adults

PROBLEM: Although personality characteristics such as impulsiveness have been linked to the driving safety and driving habits of young and middle-aged adults, little research has focused on the role of personality in older driver behavior. METHOD: Using the IVE questionnaire in an exploratory study, three personality dimensions (impulsiveness, venturesomeness, and empathy) were measured in 305 older drivers (ages 57-87 years old). In addition, the Driving Habits Questionnaire was used to estimate driving exposure, and the Driver Behavior Questionnaire (DBQ) was used to estimate driving errors and violations. State-recorded crash data were made available by the state public safety agency. RESULTS: Subjects who reported four or more driving errors had higher impulsivity and empathy scores and lower venturesomeness scores. Subjects reporting driving violations were more likely to have high impulsivity scores. Driving six or more places per week was associated with lower levels of impulsivity. IMPACT: These results suggest that a comprehensive understanding of driving problems among older adults should also include a consideration of personality dimensions. In doing so, the challenges faced in the interpretation of self-report instruments on driving behaviors must be acknowledged, with a move in research toward greater reliance on more objective measures of driving behavior when assessing the impact of personality variables.     

Assessing potential bioavailability of metals in sediments: A proposed approach

Due to anthropogenic inputs, elevated concentrations of metals frequently occur in aquatic sediments. In order to make defensible estimates of the potential risk of metals in sediments and/or develop sediment quality criteria for metals, it is essential to identify that fraction of the total metal in the sediments that is bioavailable. Studies with a variety of benthic invertebrates indicate that interstitial (pore) water concentrations of metals correspond very well with the bioavailability of metals in test sediments. Many factors may influence pore water concentrations of metals; however, in anaerobic sediments a key phase controlling partitioning of several cationic metals (cadmium, nickel, lead, zinc, copper) into pore water is acid volatile sulfide (AVS). In this paper, we present an overview of the technical basis for predicting bioavailability of cationic metals to benthic organisms based on pore water metal concentrations and metal-AVS relationships. Included are discussions of the advantages and limitations of metal bioavailability predictions based on these parameters, relative both to site-specific assessments and the development of sediment quality criteria.     

Sources of funds for developing country petroleum development

The Third World debt crisis has drastically altered the options open to Third World countries to fund petroleum development. Restricted access to international capital markets means that developing countries are having to reconsider alternative financial options to achieve a satisfactory rate of petroleum development. Of these, only foreign direct investmentis capable of compensating for the loss of more traditional sources of funds. To this end, developing countries are revising and harmonizing prior restrictive direct investment rules and tax codes, with recent financial innovations further underwriting the process.     

A statistical approach to field measurements of the chemical evolution of cold (<0°C) snow cover

Two statistical methods for the analysis of data on the evolution of the chemical composition of cold snow (<0°C) in the field (Lac Laflamme, Quebec) were compared. The methods used on the data were regression analysis (One sample per sampling date over a long cold period) and ANOVA (replicate samples on a restricted number of sampling dates over shorter periods). The relative power of the tests to determine the detectable amplitude of chemical changes was derived from the theoretical power of the tests under comparable conditions of sampling (number of observations) and from the estimated error variances of the measured data.The results of the study on the evolution of sulfates (SO₄) concentrations in discretely identified snow strate clearly showed that for six of the eight strata, significant losses of SO₄ occurred in snow during cold periods. The relative amplitude of the significant losses varied between 1% per day and 4% per day depending on the initial concentrations in the snow and the prevailing meteorological conditions.The analysis of the data also demonstrated that for the same number of samples, the regression analysis is more efficient in detecting the chemical changes in snow than the alternative ANOVA method. The use of this information to plan sampling programs of cold snow under both field and laboratory conditions is discussed.     

Evaluation of treatment techniques for increasing the uptake of metal ions from solution by nonliving seaweed algal biomass

The effects of several different treatments on subsequent uptake of several metal ions from solution by six strains of seaweed algae and a sea plant were investigated. Samples of Gracilaria conferta, Eisenia bicyclis, Ulva lactuca, Sargassum fluitans, Cladophora prolitera, Padina pavonica, and Zostera marina were treated with one or more of the following: 1 M HCl, 1 M HNO₃, 0.1 M NaOH, 1 M NaOH, acetone, and 60°C water at times from 15 to 60 min and temperatures of 25 and 60°C. Results obtained demonstrate that a treatment time of 15 or 30 min is usually sufficient to produce maximum subsequent metal uptake. Temperature of treatment had little effect.The percentages of Pb, Cu, Zn, Cd, Cr, Mn, Ni, Co, TI, Hg, Au, and Ag subsequently removed from standard metal solutions at a pH of 2–6 by each treated biomass were compared with the percent removal by untreated biomass under the same conditions. All treatments increased the ability of the biomass types studied to bind metals relative to untreated biomass. In addition, pH binding dependence was altered to some extent with a greater degree of binding observed at low pHs by biomass treated with acid. For certain strains of seaweed algae, 0.1 M NaOH treatment produced subsequent uptake of Pb, Cu, Zn, and Cd at levels reaching 100% of initial metal available. Both acidic and basic treatment increased the uptake of Au, Ag, and Hg by four strains of seaweed to nearly 100%.     

EFFECTS OF PRESCRIPTIVE RIPARIAN BUFFERS ON LANDSCAPE CHARACTERISTICS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA,USA1

ABSTRACT: Forest buffers adjacent to water bodies are widely prescribed in forest management to protect ecological functions of riparian systems. To date, buffers have been applied on the landscape uniformly without quantifying their effectiveness or the effects they have on landscape characteristics. Our objective was to quantify landscape characteristics (amount of edge and interior forest) when buffers were applied to water bodies in a 100 by 100 km area of northern Minnesota. We used a Landsat classified image in a geographic information system platform to apply two buffer widths ?28.5 m and 57 m — to water bodies, including nonforested wetlands, intermittent or perennial streams, and lakes. A total of 107,141 ha (18.3 percent) of the forest area was adjacent to and within 28.5 m of these water bodies, while 201,457 ha of forest was within 57 m, representing 34.4 percent of the total forest area. Imposing a 28.5 m buffer on water bodies increased the amount of edge and interior forest in the study area. When water bodies were buffered with a 57 m forest strip, we found a slight increase in forest edge from the current condition, and this buffer width resulted in the largest amount of interior forest. Interior forest increased with the 57 m buffer due to the density of water bodies in this region; adjacent water bodies coalesced when buffers were applied and formed isolated forest islands that contained forest interior habitat. Instead of wholesale application of set width riparian buffers, we suggest that ecological conditions of riparian areas be evaluated on a site level and that areas that currently provide important riparian conditions be maintained on the landscape with appropriate management practices.     

The Impact of Computers Upon Air Pollution Research

The electronic computer has had a profound effect upon air pollution research activities. This paper discusses some of the ways in which Public Health Service scientists routinely make use of the computer. It is used as a data processor to handle the large volumes of data resulting from continuous air monitoring devices. More importantly, it is used to perform the very complex computations involved in various statistical analyses and mathematical model building. In future years computers may be used on a real-time basis to control the sources which emit pollutants to the atmosphere.