Mitigation Costs in a Globalized World: Climate Policy Analysis with REMIND-R

Within this paper, we present the novel hybrid model REMIND-R and its application in a climate policy context based on the EU target to avoid a warming of the Earth’s atmosphere by more than 2°C compared to the pre-industrial level. This paper aims to identify necessary long-term changes in the energy system and the magnitude of costs to attain such a climate protection target under different designs of the post-2012 climate policy regime. The regional specification of mitigation costs is analyzed in the context of globalization where regions are linked by global markets for emission permits, goods, and several resources. From simulation experiments with REMIND-R, it turns out that quite different strategies of restructuring the energy system are pursued by the regions. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the variance of mitigation costs is higher across regions than across policy regimes. First-order impacts, in particular, reduced rents from trade in fossil resources, prevail regardless of the design of the policy regime.     

Long-term seasonal changes of the Danube River eco-chemical status in the region of Serbia

Seasonal spatial and temporal changes of selected eco-chemical parameters in section of the Danube River flowing through Serbia were analyzed. Data for electrical conductivity (EC), dry and suspended matter, residue on ignition, chemical oxygen demand (COD), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD-5), ultraviolet extinction, dissolved oxygen (DO), oxygen saturation, pH, nitrates, total phosphorus, and nitrogen were collected between 1992 and 2006. The use of monthly medians combined with linear regression and two-sided t test has been proven to be the best approach for resolving trends from natural variability of investigated parameters and for determining trend significance. Patterns of temporal changes between different months were examined. It was also determined that spatial trends of some parameters oscillate in predictable manner, increasing in one part of the year and declining in the other. Regression slope coefficients, an excellent indicator for determining when the water quality is changing the most along the course of the Danube, reach their maximum during summer for temperature (t), electric conductivity, nitrates, and total N, while in the same season suspended matter, COD, BOD-5, DO, and oxygen saturation coefficients reach their minimum. Correlations for used data sets of selected parameters were analyzed for better understanding of their behavior and mutual relations. It was observed that as Danube flows through Serbia, its general eco-chemical status either stagnates or improves, but the rate of river self-purification often depends on the season of the year.     

Fish scales as indicators of wastewater toxicity from an international water channel Tung Dhab drain

The effect of wastewater exposure on scales and chromatophores of freshwater fish Channa punctatus was studied using wastewater dilutions (60–100%) from an international water channel Tung Dhab drain at an interval of 15 and 30 days. The exposed fish showed significant alterations such as uprooted and damaged lepidonts and dispersal of chromatophores. These observations strongly suggest that fish scales can be successfully employed as indicators of wastewater pollution.     

Groundwater contamination evolution in the Guadiamar and Agrio aquifers after the Aznalcóllar spill: assessment and environmental implications

In 1998, the Agrio and Guadiamar rivers underwent an enormous environmental disaster caused by the rupture of the Aznalcóllar tailings dam and the release of 6 hm³ of pyrite sludge and acidic water. Both rivers run over recent alluvial materials which form a small-sized aquifer which is however important because underground water feeds the flow of the rivers. This work analyzes the state of groundwater 10 years after the spill. Before the dam failure, this aquifer was already contaminated in the zone nearest to the mine, to which the impact of the spill was added. Contamination levels in the alluvial aquifer of the Agrio River have decreased remarkably. However, they are still important, with acidic pH values and high concentrations of toxic elements (maximum values of 16 mg/L of Zn and 15 mg/L of Al). There are also important levels of contamination in the Guadiamar alluvial area closest to the mine, as well as in specific zones located further south. The concentration of toxic elements is mainly controlled by pH. The evolution of contaminant levels show a sharp decrease after the first years following the spill, followed by a subsequent stabilization. It is necessary to take measures for the recovery of the aquifer because, otherwise, groundwater will continue contributing contaminants into the Agrio and Guadiamar rivers.     

Abundance versus presence/absence data for modelling fish habitat preference with a genetic Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy system

This study compared the accuracy of fuzzy habitat preference models (FHPMs) and habitat preference curves (HPCs) obtained from the FHPMs in order to assess the effect of two types of data [log-transformed fish population density (LOG) and presence-absence (P/A) data] on the habitat preference evaluation of Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes). Three independent data sets were prepared for each type of data. The results differed according to the data sets and the types of data used. The HPCs showed a similar trend, whilst the degrees of preference were different. The model accuracy also differed according to the data sets used. Although almost no statistical difference was observed, on average, the P/A-based models showed a better performance according to the threshold-independent performance measures, whilst the LOG-based models showed better performance in predicting absence of the fish. These results can be explained partly from the different shapes of HPCs. This case study of Japanese medaka demonstrated the effect of different types of data on habitat preference evaluation. Further studies should build on the present finding and evaluate the effects of data characteristics such as the size of data sets and the prevalence for better understanding and reliable assessment of the habitat for target species.     

Development of geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph for a large watershed

Hill torrents cause a lot of environmental and property damage in Pakistan every year. Proper assessment of direct runoff in the form of hill torrents is essential for protection of environment, property, and human life. In this paper, direct surface runoff hydrograph (DSRH) was derived for a large catchment using the geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph concept. The catchment with hill torrent flows in semi-arid region of Pakistan was selected for this study. It was divided into series of linear cascades and hydrologic parameters required for Nash's conceptual model, and were estimated using geomorphology of the basin. Geomorphologic parameters were derived from satellite images of the basin and ERDAS and ArcGIS were used for data processing. Computer program was developed to systematically estimate the dynamic velocity, its related parameters by optimization and thereby to simulate the DSRH. The data regarding rainfall-runoff and satellite images were collected from Punjab Irrigation and Power Department, Pakistan. Model calibration and validation was made for 15 rainfall-runoff events. Ten events were used for calibration and five for validation. Model efficiency was found to be more than 90% and root mean square error to be about 5%. Impact of variation in model parameters (shape parameter and storage coefficient) on DSRH was investigated. For shape parameter, the number of linear cascades varied from 1 to 3 and it was found that the shaper parameter value of 3 produced the best DSRH. Various values of storage coefficient were used and it was observed that the value determined from geomorphology and the dynamic velocity produced the best results.     

A survey on the utility of the USEPA CADDIS stressor identification procedure

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has made available on the worldwide web a systematic stream stressor identification procedure, the “Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System” or CADDIS. We report here the results of a survey of regulators and scientists in 11 states who use CADDIS or another stressor identification procedure in their work. The 13 survey questions address guidelines as to what impairment scenarios to approach with stressor identification, what information is needed to perform stressor identification, and what the stakeholder role is in performing stressor identification. At the time of this survey (the summer of 2009), the EPA CADDIS website was less commonly used among the state regulators surveyed than the published EPA stressor identification document on which it is based. The respondents generally find the EPA stressor identification procedure useful and capable of being adapted to their individual needs. Survey respondents all use stressor identification in their Total Maximum Daily Load work, but also in a wide variety of other applications. All the “types of evidence” included in the CADDIS stressor identification procedure are used by the practitioners surveyed with the exception of the results of ecological simulation models. While the CADDIS documentation encourages the involvement of stakeholders in stressor identification, most respondents do not assemble stakeholder teams of local officials and citizens to participate in stressor analyses.     

Sand as a relevant fraction in geochemical studies in intertidal environments

Soil and sediment samples from several intertidal environment exposed to different types of contamination were studied to investigate the importance of grain size in relation to the capacity of the substrates to retain trace metals. The unfractionated samples (referred to as bulk samples) were separated into the following grain/size fractions: fine–coarse sand (2?0.100 mm), very fine sand (0.100?0.050 mm), silt (0.050?0.002 mm), and clay (0.002 mm). The sample into its fractions was carried out was in a glove box under high-purity N₂ atmosphere in order to minimize any alterations to the samples. The bulk samples were characterized in terms of physicochemical properties such as pH, redox potential, and grain size. The total organic carbon (TOC), total sulfur (S), iron (Fe) pyrite, Fe, and manganese (Mn), and trace metals lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), chromium (Cr), and nickel (Ni) were analyzed in the bulk samples and in each fraction. The sand fractions were also examined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Comparisons of the above parameters were made between fractions and between each fraction and the corresponding bulk sample. The fine–coarse sand fraction contained high levels of the primary elements of the geochemical processes that occur in marine sedimentary environments such as TOC, total Fe, Mn, and S. The net concentrations of these four elements were higher in the fine-coarse sand fraction than in the very fine sand fraction and were similar to the net concentrations in the silt and clay fractions. Detailed SEM analysis of the sand coarse fraction revealed the presence of Fe and aluminum oxyhydroxide coatings in the oxic layers, whereas the framboidal pyrites and coatings observed in the anoxic layers were Fe sulfides. The presence of the various coatings explains why the trace metal concentrations in the sand fine–coarse fraction were similar to those in the clay fraction and higher than those in the very fine sand fraction. The present results highlight the importance of the sand fraction, which is generally disregarded in geochemical and environmental studies of sedimentary layers.     

Suspended particulate matter estimates using optical and acoustic sensors: application in Nestos River plume (Thracian Sea,North Aegean Sea)

The present study investigates the use of combined methods of optical and acoustic sensors, in collaboration with direct in situ measurements, for the calibration and validation of a model transforming acoustic backscatter intensity series into suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentration datasets. The model follows previously elaborated techniques, placing particular attention to the parameterization of the acoustic absorption index as a function of water physical properties. Results were obtained from the annual deployment (during 2007–2008) of an upward-facing acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) (307 kHz), equipped with a Wave Array, and an optical backscatter sensor (OBS), at the bottom of Thassos Passage near Nestos River plume (Thracian Sea, Northern Greece). The OBS was calibrated through linear regression, using 2007 and 2012 field sampling data, exhibiting an error of 13–14 % due to chlorophyll presence. The ADCP signal was calibrated through simultaneous measurements of backscatter intensity and turbidity profiles. Harmonic analysis on the model-produced SPM concentrations explained the tidal influence on their variability, especially during the summer. Empirical orthogonal functions analysis revealed the impact of waves and wave-induced currents on SPM variability. Finally, Nestos River sediment load was found uncorrelated to the SPM change in Thassos Passage, due to the dispersal and sediment deposition near the river mouth.