VISUALIZATION OF TRENDS AND FLUCTUATIONS IN CLIMATIC RECORDS1

ABSTRACT: Small systematic changes in climatic records are often poorly visualized by standard time series plots because they are usually hidden by the magnitude and variability of the data values themselves. A visualization approach based on the rescaled adjusted partial sums (RAPS) which overcomes the above-stated shortcomings is presented. This visualization highlights trends, shifts, data clustering, irregular fluctuations, and periodicities in the record. Additional information on the number, magnitude, shape, frequency, and timing of fluctuations and trends can also be inferred. The visualization approach can be used for preliminary visual inspection of a time series, to gain a feel for the data, and/or to guide and focus subsequent statistical tests and analyses. It is not intended as a substitute for standard statistical analysis. Alternatively, the visualization approach can be used to display findings of a time series analysis. The capabilities and limitations of the approach are discussed and illustrated for two time series of annual rainfall values.     

Protected Areas for the Future: Models from the Past

This paper discusses the complexity of the protected area mosaic that has evolved in the United Kingdom over the past 40 or so years. Experimental matrices have been used to assist in the analysis of the various types of protected areas. The trend has been towards the development of protected areas to serve multiple objectives, although categories of protected area introduced under European legislation are more narrowly defined. There has been a proliferation in the number of categories of protected area in the past ten years; since 1990 six new categories of protected area have been established, two resulting from European directives. Most of the protected areas operate indirectly through the planning system and/or voluntary agreements. However, a distinction is drawn between systems for nature conservation and landscape protection with the former relying more on direct controls (ownership and/or legal force). There is considerable potential overlap of protected areas. New categories of protected area have often been superimposed upon the existing system without consideration of whether they will result in duplication of effort, expenditure etc. We conclude that there is scope for some rationalization of the system. Ideally this would involve replacing existing protected areas with broader based ones but considerable simplification could be obtained in practice by making the powers of the agencies more flexible and changing the administrative arrangements for managing the various protected areas.     

Developing a decision support tool for life-cycle cost assessments

Recent years have seen advancements in the development and use of life-cycle assessment (LCA) analytic techniques. Although these techniques have highlighted the power of LCA to identify the environmental consequences of a product system through its entire life cycle, they have also highlighted a major shortcoming of LCA—the lack of cost information. Because companies make daily decisions that involve trade-offs between economics and the environment, including cost information in LCA is critical for advancing its use as an overall environmental decision-making tool. This article outlines the current state of LCA methodology development, defines key life-cycle cost assessment terms and concepts, and evaluates existing cost assessment techniques with the objective of building an integrated life-cycle cost assessment tool.     

Nitrate levels in shallow groundwater of upstate New York,USA

This paper summarizes research evaluating nitrate levels in shallow groundwater of upstate New York, USA. Water from abandoned dug wells in six different land-use categories was analyzed for nitrate. Findings indicate that regardless of overlying land-use, shallow groundwater is susceptible to high levels of nitrate. Over 60 percent of the water samples tested, including at least one sample from each land-use category, had nitrate levels in excess of the United States drinking water standard of 10 mg 1^–1. Due to the potential threat of elevated nitrate levels, efforts should be made to eliminate abandoned dug wells in shallow groundwater as a source of water supply.Glenn Harris is with the Environmental Studies Programme of St Lawrence University in Canton, New York. Brian Henry is with the Department of Entomology at the University of Georgia in Athens, Georgia. Jeffrey Deyette is with the joint International Relations and Resource and Environmental Management Programme at Boston University in Boston, Massachusetts. This research was performed as a Community Service Project sponsored by the Mergardt Fund while Mr Henry and Mr Deyette were students under the supervision of Dr Harris at St Lawrence University.     

Model estimation of land-use effects on water levels of northern prairie wetlands.

Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region exist in a matrix of grassland dominated by intensive pastoral and cultivation agriculture. Recent conservation management has emphasized the conversion of cultivated farmland and degraded pastures to intact grassland to improve upland nesting habitat. The consequences of changes in land-use cover that alter watershed processes have not been evaluated relative to their effect on the water budgets and vegetation dynamics of associated wetlands. We simulated the effect of upland agricultural practices on the water budget and vegetation of a semipermanent prairie wetland by modifying a previously published mathematical model (WETSIM). Watershed cover/land-use practices were categorized as unmanaged grassland (native grass, smooth brome), managed grassland (moderately heavily grazed, prescribed burned), cultivated crops (row crop, small grain), and alfalfa hayland. Model simulations showed that differing rates of evapotranspiration and runoff associated with different upland plant-cover categories in the surrounding catchment produced differences in wetland water budgets and linked ecological dynamics. Wetland water levels were highest and vegetation the most dynamic under the managed-grassland simulations, while water levels were the lowest and vegetation the least dynamic under the unmanaged-grassland simulations. The modeling results suggest that unmanaged grassland, often planted for waterfowl nesting, may produce the least favorable wetland conditions for birds, especially in drier regions of the Prairie Pothole Region. These results stand as hypotheses that urgently need to be verified with empirical data.     

A trait specific model of competition in a spatially structured plant community

The non-random dispersal of plant propagules is thought to counter competitive exclusion and thus promote the survival of competitively inferior species. We investigated this process by modelling the outcome of interactions between species with competitive ability defined as a function of both life-history traits and the environment with both random and clustered dispersal strategies and in environmentally homogeneous and heterogeneous environments. Four main results emerged: (1) environmental heterogeneity was seen to promote co-existence in conjunction with associated trait variation for tolerance to the environmental variable and where this trait variation was effectively limited by ‘trade-off’ such that no single species had an overall competitive advantage, (2) consistent with theory, random dispersal appeared to enhance the likelihood of competitive exclusion, whereas clustering favoured co-existence, (3) the ecological outcome of interactions between dispersal and competitive relationships varied as a function of the trait determining the competitive advantage within a particular environment, and (4) promotion of co-existence by clustered dispersal was most marked when associated with environmental heterogeneity. It is argued that these results suggest that current ecological models of species interactions may need to be modified to incorporate a more realistic understanding of competitive ability if we are to better understand the factors effecting species co-existence.     

Signaling and priming communication: Independent roles in the reproductive isolation of spatially-separated populations of rodents

Summary This research concerned the relative potential for signaling and priming incompatibilities to promote reproductive isolation in rodents. Signaling is defined here as involving behavioral responses, while priming involves endocrine responses. Compatibility of both types of communications was tested between two widely separated and markedly diverging populations of deermice, and between equally separated but much less divergent populations of house mice. Signaling compatibility was assessed by comparing the amount of aggression toward young females by adult males when the two sexes were of the same vs the different stock of the same species. Priming compatibility was tested by measuring the relative amounts of uterine growth induced in young females by exposure to adult males.No signaling or priming incompatibilities were detected during cross-testing of the house mouse stocks. A degree of developing reproductive isolation was observed between the two deermouse populations, however, and this isolation was reinforced by independently occurring incompatibilities of both the signaling and the priming type. The signaling incompatibility was particularly dramatic, manifesting itself in the killing of young females by adult males.The present results provide the first demonstration of a priming incompatibility supporting reproductive isolation in diverging populations of a mammal. Furthermore, our results suggest that signaling and priming systems are independently subject to evolutionary change even when both systems probably operate through the same sensory modality.