MAPPING REGIONAL PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURATION FREQUENCY ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: For regional precipitation frequency analyses, methods are needed to spatially interpolate or smooth point intensity duration frequency (IDF) estimates at gage sites for the purposes of visualization and estimation at ungaged sites. In this study to update IDF estimates for Michigan, the assumption is made that for practical purposes, the entire state may be treated as a homogeneous region in which annual maximum precipitation is identically distributed at each site apart from a site‐specific scaling factor, commonly known as the index flood. Several interpolation and smoothing techniques are evaluated for IDF estimation at ungaged sites, including trend surface analysis, thin plate splines, inverse distance weighting, and several kriging algorithms. Ordinary block kriging is recommended as a practical and objective method for smoothing the variability in the index flood values and developing isopluvial maps.     

Nitrogen biogeochemistry in the Adirondack Mountains of New York: hardwood ecosystems and associated surface waters

Studies on the nitrogen (N) biogeochemistry in Adirondack northern hardwood ecosystems were summarized. Specific focus was placed on results at the Huntington Forest (HFS), Pancake-Hall Creek (PHC), Woods Lake (WL), Ampersand (AMO), Catlin Lake (CLO) and Hennessy Mountain (HM). Nitrogen deposition generally decreased from west to east in the Adirondacks, and there have been no marked temporal changes in N deposition from 1978 through 1998. Second-growth western sites (WL, PHC) had higher soil solution NO(3-) concentrations and fluxes than the HFS site in the central Adirondacks. Of the two old-growth sites (AMO and CLO), AMO had substantially higher NO(3-) concentrations due to the relative dominance of sugar maple that produced litter with high N mineralization and nitrification rates. The importance of vegetation in affecting N losses was also shown for N-fixing alders in wetlands. The Adirondack Manipulation and Modeling Project (AMMP) included separate experimental N additions of (NH4)2SO4 at WL, PHC and HFS and HNO3 at WL and HFS. Patterns of N loss varied with site and form of N addition and most of the N input was retained. For 16 lake/watersheds no consistent changes in NO(3-) concentrations were found from 1982 to 1997. Simulations suggested that marked NO(3-) loss will only be manifested over extended periods. Studies at the Arbutus Watershed provided information on the role of biogeochemical and hydrological factors in affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of NO(3-) concentrations. The heterogeneous topography in the Adirondacks has generated diverse landscape features and patterns of connectivity that are especially important in regulating the temporal and spatial patterns of NO(3-) concentrations in surface waters.     

Constructing vulnerability: the historical, natural and social generation of flooding in metropolitan Manila

Flooding is not a recent hazard in the Philippines but one that has occurred throughout the recorded history of the archipelago. On the one hand, it is related to a wider global ecological crisis to do with climatic change and rising sea levels but on the other hand, it is also the effect of more localised human activities. A whole range of socio-economic factors such as land use practices, living standards and policy responses are increasingly influencing the frequency of natural hazards such as floods and the corresponding occurrence of disasters. In particular, the reason why flooding has come to pose such a pervasive risk to the residents of metropolitan Manila has its basis in a complex mix of inter-relating factors that emphasise how the nature of vulnerability is constructed through the lack of mutuality between environment and human activity over time. This paper examines three aspects of this flooding: first, the importance of an historical approach in understanding how hazards are generated; second, the degree of interplay between environment and society in creating risk; and third, the manner in which vulnerability is a complex construction.     

Biodegradation by Composting of Surface Modified Starch and PVA Blended Films

Several starch/PVA/glycerol polymer blends were prepared by a solution casting technique and examined for biodegradation by composting over 45 days. Within this time frame, the starch and glycerol components were fully degraded, leaving the PVA component essentially intact. The lowest PVA content film (20%) was selected as a polymer with enough PVA to impart important physical characteristics, but also enough starch to be considered biodegradable. The film characteristics were further improved by surface modification with chitosan. This modification did not interfere with the biodegradation of the starch component. Furthermore, there was slight evidence that PVA biodegradation had been initiated in composted, surface modified starch/PVA blends.     

Seed dispersal of desert annuals

We quantified seed dispersal in a guild of Sonoran Desert winter desert annuals at a protected natural field site in Tucson, Arizona, USA. Seed production was suppressed under shrub canopies, in the open areas between shrubs, or both by applying an herbicide prior to seed set in large, randomly assigned removal plots (10-30 m diameter). Seedlings were censused along transects crossing the reproductive suppression borders shortly after germination. Dispersal kernels were estimated for Pectocarya recurvata and Schismus barbatus from the change in seedling densities with distance from these borders via inverse modeling. Estimated dispersal distances were short, with most seeds traveling less than a meter. The adhesive seeds of P. recurvata went farther than the small S. barbatus seeds, which have no obvious dispersal adaptation. Seeds dispersed farther downslope than upslope and farther when dispersing into open areas than when dispersing into shrubs. Dispersal distances were short relative to the pattern of spatial heterogeneity created by the shrub and open space mosaic. This suggests that dispersal could contribute to local population buildup, possibly facilitating species coexistence. Overall, these results support the hypothesis that escape in time via delayed germination is likely to be more important for desert annuals than escape in space.     

Practical tools for quantitative analysis of coastal vulnerability and sea level rise impacts—application in a Caribbean island and assessment of the 1.5 °C threshold

The quantitative analysis of hurricane impacts on coastal development in the Caribbean is surprisingly infrequent and many tools to assess physical vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR) are insufficient to evaluate risk in coastal areas exposed to wave attack during extreme events. This paper proposes a practical methodology to quantify coastal hazards and evaluate SLR impact scenarios in coastal areas, providing quantitative input for coastal vulnerability analysis. We illustrate the implementation of the proposed methodology with results from a site-specific analysis. We quantify how storm wave impacts penetrate farther inland and reach higher elevations for increasing SLR conditions. We also show that the increase in elevation of storm wave impacts is more than the nominal increase in mean sea level, and that elevation increase may be on the order of up to twice the nominal SLR. By developing design parameters for multiple scenarios, as opposed to the determination of a single SLR value for design established by consensus, this approach generates information that we argue encourages resilient design and embedding future adaptation in coastal design. We discuss how government planners and regulators, as well as real estate developers, lenders, and investors, can improve coastal planning and resilient design of coastal projects by using this approach.     

Telemetric System for Hydrology and Water Quality Monitoring in Watersheds of Northern New Mexico, Usa

This study utilized telemetric systems to sample microbes and pathogens in forest, burned forest, rangeland, and urban watersheds to assess surface water quality in northern New Mexico. Four sites included remote mountainous watersheds, prairie rangelands, and a small urban area. The telemetric system was linked to dataloggers with automated event monitoring equipment to monitor discharge, turbidity, electrical conductivity, water temperature, and rainfall during base flow and storm events. Site data stored in dataloggers was uploaded to one of three types of telemetry: 1) radio in rangeland and urban settings; 2) a conventional phone/modem system with a modem positioned at the urban/forest interface; and 3) a satellite system used in a remote mountainous burned forest watershed. The major variables affecting selection of each system were site access, distance, technology, and cost. The systems were compared based on operation and cost. Utilization of telecommunications systems in this varied geographic area facilitated the gathering of hydrologic and water quality data on a timely basis.     

Systematic monitoring of heathy woodlands in a Mediterranean climate—a practical assessment of methods

Practical and useful vegetation monitoring methods are needed, and data compatibility and validation of remotely sensed data are desirable. Methods have not been adequately tested for heathy woodlands. We tested the feasibility of detecting species composition shifts in remnant woodland in South Australia, comparing historical (1986) plot data with temporal replicates (2010). We compared the uniformity of species composition among spatially scattered versus spatially clustered plots. At two sites, we compared visual and point-intercept estimation of cover and species diversity. Species composition (presence/absence) shifted between 1986 and 2010. Species that significantly shifted in frequency had low cover. Observations of decreasing species were consistent with predictions from temperature response curves (generalised additive models) for climate change over the period. However, long-term trends could not be distinguished from medium-term dynamics or short-term changes in visibility from this dataset. Difficulties were highlighted in assessing compositional change using historical baselines established for a different purpose in terms of spatial sampling and accuracy of replicate plots, differences in standard plot methods and verification of species identifications. Spatially clustered replicate plots were more similar in species composition than spatially scattered plots, improving change detection potential but decreasing area of inference. Visual surveys detected more species than point-intercepts. Visual cover estimates differed little from point-intercepts although underestimating cover in some instances relative to intercepts. Point-intercepts provide more precise cover estimates of dominant species but took longer and were difficult in steep, heathy terrain. A decision tree based on costs and benefits is presented assessing monitoring options based on data presented. The appropriate method is a function of available resources, the need for precise cover estimates versus adequate species detection, replication and practical considerations such as access and terrain.     

Regional data refine local predictions: modeling the distribution of plant species abundance on a portion of the central plains

Species distribution models are frequently used to predict species occurrences in novel conditions, yet few studies have examined the consequences of extrapolating locally collected data to regional landscapes. Similarly, the process of using regional data to inform local prediction for species distribution models has not been adequately evaluated. Using boosted regression trees, we examined errors associated with extrapolating models developed with locally collected abundance data to regional-scale spatial extents and associated with using regional data for predictions at a local extent for a native and non-native plant species across the northeastern central plains of Colorado. Our objectives were to compare model results and accuracy between those developed locally and extrapolated regionally, those developed regionally and extrapolated locally, and to evaluate extending species distribution modeling from predicting the probability of presence to predicting abundance. We developed models to predict the spatial distribution of plant species abundance using topographic, remotely sensed, land cover and soil taxonomic predictor variables. We compared model predicted mean and range abundance values to observed values between local and regional. We also evaluated model prediction performance based on Pearson's correlation coefficient. We show that: (1) extrapolating local models to regional extents may restrict predictions, (2) regional data can help refine and improve local predictions, and (3) boosted regression trees can be useful to model and predict plant species abundance. Regional sampling designed in concert with large sampling frameworks such as the National Ecological Observatory Network may improve our ability to monitor changes in local species abundance.     

Australian agriculture: coping with dangerous climate change

Australian agriculture has operated successfully in one of the world’s most hostile environments for two centuries. However, climate change is posing serious challenges to its ongoing success. Determining what might constitute dangerous climate change for Australian agriculture is not an easy task, as most climate-related risks are associated with changes in the highly uncertain hydrological cycle rather than directly to more predictable changes in temperature. In addition, the adaptive capacity of Australian producers is generally high, as they have had to cope with a highly variable climate in which periodic, severe droughts are the norm. As the underlying global trends in climate interact with the continent’s patterns of natural variability, producers can generally deal with gradual changes in climate but are most concerned about high rates of change in regional and local climates and with abrupt, unexpected shifts in climate patterns. Perhaps the best indicator of dangerous climate change for Australian agriculture is the persistence, or not, of the drying trends in many of the Country’s most productive regions and the strength of the linkage between these trends and global climate change.