WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND DROUGHT FORECASTS IN SOUTH CAROLINA1

ABSTRACT: Despite potential benefits for resource planning, community water systems managers have not used seasonal climate forecasts extensively. Obstacles to forecast use include a lack of awareness of their existence, distrust of their accuracy, perceived irrelevance to management decisions, and competition from other technological innovations. In this paper, ways in which seasonal forecasts might be extended to address more directly some concerns of South Carolina community water systems managers are explored. From May 1998 through August 2002, this group experienced drought conditions that threatened water quality and supply and required restrictions on water consumption. Methods for incorporating long lead forecasts with joint probabilities of monthly temperature and precipitation to produce drought forecasts are demonstrated. When tailored to specific places, such forecasts show the likelihood of exceeding drought thresholds that would trigger water use restrictions. The methods illustrate how long lead forecasts can be extended and customized into secondary products that address issues of greater relevance to water resource managers.     

The Australian coal industry: An economic appraisal

Increasing productivity of open-cut mines in New South Wales and Queensland has been an important element in the expansion of the Australian black coal industry, which now supplies domestic electricity and iron and steel industries as well as increasing export orders. Industry is capable of strong growth but some changes in government policies are needed to ensure that infrastracture is provided and growth is economically efficient and compatible with environmental considerations. Increasing output is likely to prevent the reemergence of manpower problems which once plagued the industry, but such problems could surface if growth is not maintained.     

Decomposition and plant-available nitrogen in biosolids: laboratory studies,field studies,and computer simulation

This research combines laboratory and field studies with computer simulation to characterize the amount of plant-available nitrogen (PAN) released when municipal biosolids are land-applied to agronomic crops. In the laboratory studies, biosolids were incubated in or on soil from the land application sites. Mean biosolids total C, organic N, and C to N ratio were 292 g kg(-1), 41.7 g kg(-1), and 7.5, respectively. Based on CO2 evolution at 25 degrees C and optimum soil moisture, 27 of the 37 biosolids-soil combinations had two decomposition phases. The mean rapid and slow fraction rate constants were 0.021 and 0.0015 d(-1), respectively, and the rapid fraction contained 23% of the total C assuming sequential decomposition. Where only one decomposition phase existed, the mean first order rate constant was 0.0046 d(-1). The mean rate constant for biosolids stored in lagoons for an extended time was 0.00097 d(-1). The only treatment process that was related to biosolids treatment was stabilization by storage in a lagoon. Biosolids addition rates (dry basis) ranged from 1.3 to 33.8 Mg ha(-1) with a mean value of 10.6 Mg ha(-1). A relationship between fertilizer N rate and crop response was used to estimate observed PAN at each site. Mean observed PAN during the growing season was 18.9 kg N Mg(-1) or 37% of the biosolids total N. Observed PAN was linearly related to biosolids total N. Predicted PAN using the computer model Decomposition, actual growing-season weather, actual analytical data, and laboratory decomposition kinetics compared well with observed PAN. The mean computer model prediction of growing-season PAN was 19.2 kg N Mg(-1) and the slope of the regression between predicted and observed PAN was not significantly different from unity. Predicted PAN obtained using mean decomposition kinetics was related to predicted PAN using actual decomposition kinetics suggesting that mean rate constants, actual weather, and actual analytical data could be used in estimation of PAN. There was a linear relationship between predicted N mineralization for the growing season and for the first year. For this study, the mean values for the growing season and year were 27 and 37% of the organic N, respectively.     

Population Declines and Range Contractions among Lowland Farmland Birds in Britain

We used extensive atlas and census data to assess trends in the distribution and population levels of birds on lowland farmland in Britain between the late 1960s and early 1990s. Many species of farmland birds have become less widespread or have declined in numbers, or both, but few have become more wide-spread or have increased. Of the 28 species classified as farmland birds the distributions of 24 contracted between 1970 and 1990. Of the 18 farmland species for which it was possible to assess population change, 15 were less abundant in 1990 than in 1970. Seven of the species were estimated to have undergone population decreases of at least 50%. Farmland species showing the largest population declines tended also to show substantial range contractions. Farmland species underwent an appreciably larger contraction of distribution than species associated with any other habitat. Furthermore, farmland species tended to decrease in abundance, whereas woodland species tended to increase. Population declines among farmland birds became evident in the mid- to late 1970s, a period when several fundamental changes were taking place in British agricultural practices. These included a great reduction in the spring sowing of cereals, a simplification of crop rotations, increased use of chemical pesticides and inorganic fertilizers, and more-intensive grassland management. We suggest that the declines of farmland bird species have been caused or aggravated by this pervasive intensification of agriculture. Existing research on declining farmland birds, however, indicates that there is no single mechanism underlying the population changes. We identify priorities for research, focusing mainly on relationships between bird populations and agricultural practices, but we also recognize a need for a better understanding of the role of predation.     

EVALUATING THE INFLUENCE OF SOURCE BASINS ON DOWNSTREAM WATER QUALITY IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER1

ABSTRACT: Chemical variability in the Mississippi River during water years 1989 to 1998 was evaluated using stream discharge and water‐quality data in conjunction with the DAFLOW/BLTM hydraulic model. Model simulations were used to identify subbasin contributions of water and chemical constituents to the Mississippi River upstream from its confluence with the Ohio and the Mississippi River and at the Atchafalaya Diversion in Louisiana. Concentrations of dissolved solids, sodium, and sulfate at the Thebes site showed a general decreasing trend, and concentrations of silica and nitrate showed a general increasing trend as the percentage of discharge from the Mississippi River upstream from Grafton increased. Concentrations of most chemical constituents in the Mississippi River at the Atchafalaya Diversion exhibited a decreasing trend as the percentage of water from the Ohio River increased. Regression models were used to evaluate the importance of the source of water to the water chemistry in the Mississippi River at Thebes and the Atchafalaya Diversion. The addition of terms in regression equations to account for the percent of water from sub‐basins improved coefficients of determination for predicting chemical concentrations by as much as nine percent at the Thebes site and by as much as 48 percent at the Atchafalaya Diversion site. The addition of source‐water terms to regression equations increased the estimated annual loads of nitrate and silica delivered from the Mississippi River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico by as much as 14 and 13 percent, respectively.     

The prediction of scenic beauty from landscape content and composition

Two studies were conducted to examine distance classes of vegetation (foreground, middleground and background) and scene composition (presence of vegetation in left, center or right section of the image) as predictors of perceived scenic beauty. In study one, 41 students rated 63 landscape scenes with regard to scenic beauty. The Scenic Beauty Estimation Method was used to derive interval scale beauty values (SBEs). For each landscape image, areal measures of vegetation in each distance class and for each vertical section were taken and used as predictors. Presence of haze, clouds and human impacts were also recorded. Among the most important contributors to scenic beauty were amount of center middleground vegetation, and center background vegetation. Left foreground vegetation and right foreground vegetation were found to have significant and opposing regression weight signs—negative for the left and positive for the right. Study two was conducted to determine whether these opposing regression weight signs for foreground vegetation were due to a perceptual right-left bias or to some specific content in the image itself. In the second study, the photographic slides used to present landscape scenes to subjects were reversed so that the content which was previously on the right was now left, and vice versa. Thirty-nine students rated the reversed slides with regard to their scenic beauty. The signs of the regression weights in study two shifted such that left foreground was now positively valued and right foreground was negatively valued. This finding suggests that viewers are sensitive to foreground content and its placement in the image, and not simply to one side of the field of vision.     

PRIORITIZING NONPOINT SOURCE PHOSPHORUS LOADING USING A GRASS-MODELING SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: A UNIX-based windows application was developed to integrate a phosphorus transport model with the Geographic Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS). The system prioritizes potential phosphorus loading from fields or cells in a watershed and can evaluate the effects of alternate management practices on phosphorus yield. The model simulates phosphorus loading by using a daily mass balance on a unit-area basis and incorporates the effects from rainfall, topography, soil properties, fertilizer and animal waste application, and management. Model predictions include dissolved and sediment-bound phosphorus yield, runoff volume, and sediment yield. Within the integrated GRASS-modeling system, the user can obtain model input data, execute the model using various options, rank model input and out. put data, and display them as GRASS-based maps or data tables. All functions are menu driven, developed using C language and X-window tools to run on a SUN workstation platform. The system provides a powerful and efficient tool for prioritizing phosphorus loading from nonpoint sources.     

Management of Sedimentation in Tropical Watersheds

/ The sedimentation of reservoirs is a serious problem throughout the tropics, yet most attempts to control sedimentation in large river basins have not been very successful. Reliable information on erosion rates and sources of sediments has been lacking. In regions where geologically unstable terrain combines with high rainfall, natural erosion rates might be so high that the effects of human activity are limited. Estimates of natural erosion in these situations often have been poor because of the episodic nature of most erosion during large storms and because mass-wasting may supply much of the sediment. The predominance of mass-wasting in some watersheds can result in an unexpectedly high ratio of bedload to suspended load, shifting sedimentation to "live" rather than "dead" storage within reservoirs. Furthermore, the inappropriate use of the Universal Soil Loss Equation to assess the effectiveness of erosion control measures has led to inaccurate estimates of the sediment reduction benefits that could accrue to watershed treatment efforts. Although reducing erosion from cultivated areas is desirable for other reasons, efforts aimed at reducing reservoir sedimentation by controlling agricultural sources of erosion may have limited benefits if the principal sources are of natural origin or are associated with construction of the dams and reservoirs and with rural roads and trails. Finally, the most appropriate locations for watershed rehabilitation depend on the magnitude of temporary storage of colluvium and alluvium within the river basin: Where storage volume is large and residence time of sediment very long, reducing agricultural erosion may have limited impacts on sedimentation within the expected life of a reservoir. Systematic development and analysis of sediment budgets for representative watersheds is needed to address these limitations and thereby improve both the planning of river basin development schemes and the allocation of resources towards reducing sedimentation. When sedimentation of reservoirs is the key issue, sediment budgets must focus especially on channel transport rates and sediment delivery from hillsides. Sediment budgets are especially critical for tropical areas where project funds and technical help are limited. Once sediment budgets are available, watershed managers will be able to direct erosion control programs towards locations where they will be most effective. KEY WORDS: Tropical watersheds; Sedimentation; Reservoirs; Erosion control     

WATER QUALITY OF STORMWATER RUNOFF FROM TEN INDUSTRIAL SITES1

ABSTRACT: This study was to designed to determine concentrations of selected metals, organic compounds, pesticides, and conventional pollutants in stormwater runoff from two North Carolina businesses in each of the following five general industrial groups: auto salvage, metal fabrication, scrap and recycling, vehicle maintenance, and wood preserving facilities. The sampling procedure involved collecting a first flush sample of runoff from a single storm event and both first flush and composite samples of runoff from three consecutive storm events. Analysis of samples collected during the first flush indicated that zinc and copper were the most common of the 13 metals included in the analysis. Additional analysis documented that several volatile organic, semi-volatile organic, or pesticide compounds including acrolein, methylene chloride, xylenes, toluene, tetrachloroethylene, trichloroethylene, pentachlorophenol, and aldrin were also found in the first flush samples. Concentrations of aggregate organics, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment were determined in both first flush and three-hour composite samples. Concentrations of pollutants in first flush samples were similar to those in corresponding composite samples.     

Effects of Turbidity,Sediment, and Polyacrylamide on Native Freshwater Mussels

Turbidity is a ubiquitous pollutant adversely affecting water quality and aquatic life in waterways globally. Anionic polyacrylamide (PAM) is widely used as an effective chemical flocculent to reduce suspended sediment (SS) and turbidity. However, no information exists on the toxicity of PAM‐flocculated sediments to imperiled, but ecologically important, freshwater mussels (Unionidae). Thus, we conducted acute (96 h) and chronic (24 day) laboratory tests with juvenile fatmucket (Lampsilis siliquoidea) and three exposure conditions (nonflocculated settled sediment, SS, and PAM‐flocculated settled sediment) over a range of turbidity levels (50, 250, 1,250, and 3,500 nephelometric turbidity units). Survival and sublethal endpoints of protein oxidation, adenosine triphosphate (ATP) production, and protein concentration were used as measures of toxicity. We found no effect of turbidity levels or exposure condition on mussel survival in acute or chronic tests. However, we found significant reductions in protein concentration, ATP production, and oxidized proteins in mussels acutely exposed to the SS condition, which required water movement to maintain sediment in suspension, indicating responses that are symptoms of physiological stress. Our results suggest anionic PAM applied to reduce SS may minimize adverse effects of short‐term turbidity exposure on juvenile freshwater mussels without eliciting additional lethal or sublethal toxicity.