村级水资源的管理与利用研究--来自南方四个村的案例分析

农村水资源及其相关设施的改革需要更多了解村和户层次上的现实状况和机制安排。以避免改革扭曲和失败。通过对湖北和广西共四个村的村委会、关键知情人及120个农户的调查。在村和农户两个层次上描述水资源及其相关设施的管理与利用，尤其是在干旱年份村和户所采取的策略。并深入分析了农村村级水资源管理与利用的制度安排与问题。得出的结论是。追求水利管理效率的市场化改革需要考虑干旱的威胁，要有基于风险的制度设计和法律保障。     

DESIGN OF AN INDEX OF WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the formulation of an Index of Water Quality to evaluate the level of pollution in fresh water. A Four-Round Delphi equation, using a panel of seven nationally recognized water scientists, was performed to ascertain the pollutants to be included in the index, the relationship between the quantity of these pollutants in the water and the resulting quality of the water, and the importance of each pollution variable to each water use as well as to overall pollution. A multiplicative index was used to bring the pollutants together into one system.     

A special adaptation to planktonic life in larvae of the Cassoidea (=Tonnoidea) (Gastropoda)

Living veligers of the Cassoidea have been observed to use a mantle appendage to form and resorb periostracum. Anatomical and histological examinations of a ranellid (Cymatium sp.) larva collected from the Red Sea in 1987 revealed the structure and location of the pallial appendage. The mantle edges of juvenile or adult species of the Cassoidea do not show a comparable specialization. It is demonstrated that cassoid larval conch characters are sufficient to prove the existence of a pallial appendage without anatomical confirmation. A mantle appendage is not known from teleplanic (long-living planktic) veligers of other gastropod superfamilies. In cases where the larval strategies of the latter are known they are totally different. Therefore it is suggested that the adaptation of cassoid larvae to pelagic life is unique among gastropods representing an autapomorphic character of the superfamily.     

Geocybernetics: Controlling a Complex Dynamical System Under Uncertainty

   Global change, i.e. the mega-process radically transforming the relationship between nature and human civilization since the end of World War II, is investigated from the point of view of systems analysis. It is argued that this unbridled process should rather be domesticated by planetary control strategies transpiring from a new science called “geocybernetics”. The formal aspects of geocybernetic theory are sketched and illustrated in a tutorial theatre world reflecting the overall environment and development problematic. Within this setting a straightforward operationalization of the sweeping “sustainable development” ideal through a set of concise paradigms can be achieved. Evidence is provided that geocybernetics is actually feasible on the basis of earth system modelling and fuzzy-control techniques.     

Simplicity versus efficiency in sampling designs and estimation

Simplicity and efficiency in design and estimation are all important in deciding on sampling strategies. A simple model is given and illustrated for four practical situations to show how a good sampling strategy should be selected.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

A first trimester trisomy 13/trisomy 18 risk algorithm combining fetal nuchal translucency thickness,maternal serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A

This study examines 45 cases of trisomy 13 and 59 cases of trisomy 18 and reports an algorithm to identify pregnancies with a fetus affected by trisomy 13 or 18 by a combination of maternal age fetal nuchal translucency (NT) thickness, and maternal serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A at 11–14 weeks of gestation. In this mixed trisomy group the median MoM NT was increased at 2.819, whilst the median MoMs for free β-hCG and PAPP-A were reduced at 0.375 and 0.201 respectively. We predict that with the use of the combined trisomy 13 and 18 algorithm and a risk cut-off of 1 in 150 will for a 0.3% false positive rate allow 95% of these chromosomal defects to be identified at 11–14 weeks. Such algorithms will enhance existing first trimester screening algorithms for trisomy 21. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ecophysiological indicators of the state of animal populations exposed to damaging factors

Indices of abundance and reproduction rate are considered in some groups of aquatic and terrestrial vertebrates from the zones of technogenic disasters. Upon a critical population decline caused by external destructive factors, such as emissions of acute ecotoxicants, the ecophysiological and behavioral compensatory mechanisms are activated, which provide for restoration of the total population size to the optimum within a short period of time. Environmental pollution with substances disturbing the reproductive function has the gravest consequences for animals. In this case, population size may remain fairly high, and, therefore, the effect of enhanced reproduction as a response to population decline does not take place, which eventually leads to a gradual but irreversible destruction of the population. Pathologies of reproduction should be used as a criterion for assessing the state of animals in the zones of technogenic disasters.Translated from Ekologiya, No. 1, 2005, pp. 32–38.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Shilova, Shatunovskii.     

Paleoecology and dynamics of forest ecosystems in Central Evenkia during the past 2400 years

New data on the composition of surface assemblages of plant macroremains from soil and swamp samples have been obtained in the study of geomorphologically different localities in the middle reaches of the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River. The results of paleocarpological analysis of forest soil sections supported by relevant palynological and geochronological data are presented. Natural changes of the forest cover over the past 2400 years and quantitative characteristics of the paleoclimate during each stage are described.Translated from Ekologiya, No. 1, 2005, pp. 3–10.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Koshkarova, Koshkarov.