Changes in persistent contaminant concentration and CYP1A1 protein expression in biopsy samples from northern bottlenose whales, Hyperoodon ampullatus, following the onset of nearby oil and gas development

A small population of endangered northern bottlenose whales (Hyperoodon ampullatus) inhabits "The Gully" a Marine Protected Area on the Scotian Shelf, eastern Canada. Amid concerns regarding nearby oil and gas development, we took 36 skin and blubber biopsy samples in 1996-1997 (prior to major development) and 2002-2003 (five years after development began), and three samples from a population in the Davis Strait, Labrador in 2003. These were analysed for cytochrome P4501A1 (CYP1A1) protein expression (n=36), and for persistent contaminants (n=23). CYP1A1 showed generally low expression in whales from The Gully, but higher levels during 2003, potentially coincident with recorded oil spills, and higher levels in Davis Strait whales. A range of PCB congeners and organochlorine compounds were detected, with concentrations similar to other North Atlantic odontocetes. Concentrations were higher in whales from The Gully than from the Davis Strait, with significant increases in 4,4'-DDE and trans-nonachlor in 2002-2003 relative to 1996-1997.     

Forced dispersal of juvenile guanacos (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lama guanicoe</Emphasis>): causes,variation, and fates of individuals dispersing at different times

We examined adult-juvenile conflict in the guanaco (Lama guanicoe). During spring, territorial males become increasingly aggressive toward all juveniles born the previous year and begin expelling them from family groups. In an apparent effort to reduce aggression, juveniles display submissive crouches when being observed, approached, or attacked by the territorial male. Therefore, we assessed the influence of juvenile submissive behavior on the timing of dispersal and also examined if dispersal time was related to survival and reproductive performance as adults. We also evaluated hypotheses regarding the evolution of juvenile mammalian dispersal in the context of if and how each may favor the forced dispersal of juvenile guanacos by territorial males. Juveniles generally dispersed in late spring and early summer, and a nearly equal proportion of females (n=46; 48%) and males (n=49; 52%) dispersed. More-submissive animals generally dispersed later than less-submissive animals. Juvenile sex and dispersal time were not related to survival. In contrast, juvenile sex and dispersal time were related to reproductive performance. The probability of reproducing was highest when juveniles dispersed early and decreased with increasing time in family groups prior to dispersal. The largest proportion of juveniles was forced to disperse during a 2-week interval following the peak of the breeding season. Competition for food resources is likely very intense at this juncture and territorial males may force older juveniles to disperse in order to divert food resources to younger neonates. Additionally, juveniles may be forced to disperse after territorial males mate their mothers to prevent lost mating opportunities, because females leave territories when their offspring disperse and possibly prior to mating with males. We conclude that the forced dispersal of juvenile guanacos by territorial males is ultimately driven by competition for food resources on territories. The timing of dispersal, however, may be tempered by the chronology of matings between territorial males and particular adult females, and/or genetic relatedness between territorial males and juveniles.     

Environment-specific elasticity and sensitivity analysis of the stochastic growth rate

For matrix population models, analyses of how sensitive the population growth rate is to changes in vital rates (i.e. perturbations) are important for studies of life history evolution as well as for management and conservation of threatened species. There are two types of sensitivity analyses corresponding to absolute (sensitivity) or relative (elasticity) changes in the vital rates and both types can be applied to both deterministic and stochastic matrix population models. To date, most empirical studies of elasticity and sensitivity of the stochastic growth rate have examined the response to perturbations in the vital rates in a complete set of possible environments. However, it is often of interest to examine the response to perturbations occurring in only a subset of the possible environments. This has been done for periodic time-varying models elsewhere, but here we describe a recently published method for calculating the environment-specific sensitivity and elasticity of the stochastic growth rate and apply this method to data. These environment-specific perturbation analyses provide a logical way of dividing the sensitivity and elasticity among the environments. They give important insight into the selection regime in different environments and can provide valuable information for making management decisions and management evaluations in stochastic environments.     

Planning implications from the interactions between renewable energy programs and carbon regulation

Complex relationships exist between programs to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the electricity sector and programs to promote renewable electricity generation. Simulation modeling of three scenarios in the UK electricity sector are used to identify potential interactions between these programs. A strict CO₂ cap can result in a renewable electricity requirement being easily met. Conversely, the renewables quota could be required under low natural gas prices to keep electricity suppliers from switching from coal to gas. Similarly, CO₂ trading can reduce renewables deployment levels because purchased CO₂ allowances replace renewables. Therefore, both programs are required to ensure CO₂ and renewables goals. The planning implications for administrative procedures and renewables subsidies are also discussed.     

Disciplined Planning,Structured Participation,and Collaborative Modeling — Applying Shared Vision Planning to Water Resources

Participatory planning applied to water resources has sparked significant interest and debate during the last decade. Recognition that models play a significant role in the formulation and implementation of design and management strategies has encouraged the profession to consider how such models can be best implemented. Shared Vision Planning (SVP) is a disciplined planning approach that combines traditional water resources planning methodologies with innovations such as structured public participation and the use of collaborative modeling, resulting in a more complete understanding and an integrative decision support tool. This study reviews these three basic components of SVP and explains how they are incorporated into a unified planning approach. The successful application of SVP is explored in three studies involving planning challenges: the National Drought Study, the Lake Ontario‐St. Lawrence River Study, and the Apalachicola‐Chattahoochee‐Flint/Alabama‐Coosa‐Tallapoosa River Basin Study. The article concludes by summarizing the advantages and limitations of this planning approach.     

Habitat loss, trophic collapse, and the decline of ecosystem services

The provisioning of sustaining goods and services that we obtain from natural ecosystems is a strong economic justification for the conservation of biological diversity. Understanding the relationship between these goods and services and changes in the size, arrangement, and quality of natural habitats is a fundamental challenge of natural resource management. In this paper, we describe a new approach to assessing the implications of habitat loss for loss of ecosystem services by examining how the provision of different ecosystem services is dominated by species from different trophic levels. We then develop a mathematical model that illustrates how declines in habitat quality and quantity lead to sequential losses of trophic diversity. The model suggests that declines in the provisioning of services will initially be slow but will then accelerate as species from higher trophic levels are lost at faster rates. Comparison of these patterns with empirical examples of ecosystem collapse (and assembly) suggest similar patterns occur in natural systems impacted by anthropogenic change. In general, ecosystem goods and services provided by species in the upper trophic levels will be lost before those provided by species lower in the food chain. The decrease in terrestrial food chain length predicted by the model parallels that observed in the oceans following overexploitation. The large area requirements of higher trophic levels make them as susceptible to extinction as they are in marine systems where they are systematically exploited. Whereas the traditional species-area curve suggests that 50% of species are driven extinct by an order-of-magnitude decline in habitat abundance, this magnitude of loss may represent the loss of an entire trophic level and all the ecosystem services performed by the species on this trophic level.     

Effectiveness of BMPS in Reducing Sediment From Unpaved Roads in the Stillwater Creek,Oklahoma Watershed1

Turton, Donald J., Michael D. Smolen, and Elaine Stebler, 2009. Effectiveness of BMPs in Reducing Sediment From Unpaved Roads in the Stillwater Creek, Oklahoma Watershed. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1343‐1351. Abstract: Erosion from rural unpaved roads is thought to be an important source of sediment in sediment‐impaired streams in Oklahoma and other locations. However, no direct measurements of sediment yields from rural unpaved roads were previously available for Oklahoma. Four rural unpaved road segments in the Stillwater Creek Watershed were instrumented in a paired watershed design to measure sediment yields to streams before and after the installation of Best Management Practices (BMPs). One segment of each pair remained under current management to serve as a control. The second segment received BMPs after a 1‐year calibration period. One BMP consisted of widening the ditches, re‐shaping ditches and cutslopes, putting a proper crown on the road surface, and vegetating disturbed areas with grass. The other BMP consisted of creating a proper crown on the road bed, applying a geo‐synthetic fabric to the road bed and surfacing with 127 mm of crusher run gravel containing 12‐15% fines to serve as a binder. Road segment sediment yields for individual storms varied, depending on factors such as rainfall amount and intensity. During the pre‐BMP year, storm sediment yields ranged from 0 to 4.3 Mg on one pair of segments and from 0 to 2.8 Mg on the other. The storm sediment yields and annual yields were in the same order of magnitude as sediment yields from unpaved rural or forest roads reported in other studies. Sediment yields were significantly reduced on both segments by the installation of BMPs, approximately 80% on one segment pair and 20% on the other. The average sediment yield (across the four segments) for the pre‐BMP year was 138 Mg/ha or 120 Mg/km of road. By extrapolating these average yields across the 479 km of unpaved roads in the Stillwater Creek Watershed and comparing it to estimated sediment yields for other land uses obtained from other sources, we conclude that unpaved roads may contribute up to 35% of the total sediment load to Stillwater Creek.     

Development of Models for Predicting the Distribution of Indoor Nitrogen Dioxide Concentrations

Extensive data on residential indoor and outdoor NO₂ levels have been collected in a limited number of U.S. locations. To date, researchers have analyzed these data sets individually, but have not analyzed them in the aggregate. Results have not, therefore, been suitable for application in a nationwide exposure assessment. This paper presents an analysis of indoor and outdoor NO₂ field measurements from five U.S. metropolitan areas for homes with gas-fueled ranges and discusses potential applications of the results. Using linear regression analysis, the relationship between indoor NO₂ and various predictor variables was explored. Results indicated that ambient NO2 levels alone explain an estimated 37 percent of the variability in indoor NO₂ levels, that the relationship between indoor and outdoor NO₂ concentrations differs significantly from summer to winter months, and that homes with range pilot lights have indoor levels approximately 7 ppb greater than homes without pilot lights. A logistic regression model which predicts the distribution of indoor NO₂ levels based on ambient NO₂ concentrations was developed. Estimation and testing of the logistic model indicated good model performance. The model is particularly useful for addressing policy-oriented questions that involve the concept of "acceptable" threshold levels for human exposure to NO₂.