复杂系统安全事故致因分析的“认知-约束”模型

随着系统复杂程度的提高,传统的针对机械系统或者机电系统事故致因的“因果事故链”模型对于复杂系统的事故分析显得难以胜任.在对现有事故致因理论及模型进行概述分析的基础上,提出了适用于复杂系统事故分析的“认知-约束”模型,通过分析文献中的事故连锁模型和博帕尔泄露事件,验证了“认知-约束”模型的实用性.最后提出基于机器学习方法和重要节点牵连控制方法的复杂系统崩溃控制策略.研究结果表明预防复杂系统安全事故需要强化安全认知能力,并发展有效的安全控制策略.     

Pyrolysis and dehalogenation of plastics from waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE): A review

Plastics from waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) have been an important environmental problem because these plastics commonly contain toxic halogenated flame retardants which may cause serious environmental pollution, especially the formation of carcinogenic substances polybrominated dibenzo dioxins/furans (PBDD/Fs), during treat process of these plastics. Pyrolysis has been proposed as a viable processing route for recycling the organic compounds in WEEE plastics into fuels and chemical feedstock. However, dehalogenation procedures are also necessary during treat process, because the oils collected in single pyrolysis process may contain numerous halogenated organic compounds, which would detrimentally impact the reuse of these pyrolysis oils. Currently, dehalogenation has become a significant topic in recycling of WEEE plastics by pyrolysis. In order to fulfill the better resource utilization of the WEEE plastics, the compositions, characteristics and dehalogenation methods during the pyrolysis recycling process of WEEE plastics were reviewed in this paper. Dehalogenation and the decomposition or pyrolysis of WEEE plastics can be carried out simultaneously or successively. It could be ‘dehalogenating prior to pyrolysing plastics’, ‘performing dehalogenation and pyrolysis at the same time’ or ‘pyrolysing plastics first then upgrading pyrolysis oils’. The first strategy essentially is the two-stage pyrolysis with the release of halogen hydrides at low pyrolysis temperature region which is separate from the decomposition of polymer matrixes, thus obtaining halogenated free oil products. The second strategy is the most common method. Zeolite or other type of catalyst can be used in the pyrolysis process for removing organohalogens. The third strategy separate pyrolysis and dehalogenation of WEEE plastics, which can, to some degree, avoid the problem of oil value decline due to the use of catalyst, but obviously, this strategy may increase the cost of whole recycling process.     

Governmental policies drive the LUCC trajectories in the Jianghan Plain

The prosperity of farmers is closely tied to governmental policies. The Jianghan Plain is an important region for commodity grains, cotton and edible oil for China. The trajectories of land use and land cover change (LUCC) of the study area from 1995 to 2010 were studied based on the LUCC database of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The LUCC was characterised by a continuous decrease of arable land and continuous increase of waters and construction land. The LUCC was obviously concurrent with the implementation of related national policies. The transition to construction land was ever well controlled by ‘Notice regarding the further strengthening of land management and arable land protection’ promulgated in 1997. However, it flourished again with the ‘Rise of Central China Strategy’ taking effect since 2006. The transition of construction land to others reflects an uncommon trend, which must be strengthened with the strict implementation of the overall plan, which imposes a limited acreage quota of construction land to each district. The policies were quite contradictory to the transition of waters. LUCC related to waters is most active, which was driven by both natural forces and national policies. Just after the devastating flood of 1998, the state council of China put forward the Green Policy to govern the major rivers. As to the study area, it is mainly to ‘push over dykes to let flood through and return farmland to lakes’. In 2004, the Grain Direct Subsidy Policy was implemented, which, along with the surge in the price of rice, resulted in a strengthening trend of conversion of ponds to paddy fields.     

加油站电气设备安全隐患分析及防范对策

针对加油站电气设备存在的诸多问题,通过对加油站典型电气事故案例分析、电气隐患危害程度分级、第一级电气隐患原因分析、电气防爆检测要求与技术进行总结,对加油站电气设备隐患检查及安全管理提出建议和改进措施,为提升加油站电气安全管理水平提供指导。     

An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word “scenario” appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.     

航空装备研制风险的综合赋权-双基点法评估

为实现对航空预研项目技术风险的定量评估,建立技术风险评价指标体系,建立基于综合赋权和双基点方法的综合评估模型,采用层次分析法(AHP)求得主观权重,熵值赋权法求得客观权重,运用线性规划方法求得对2类权重加权的权值,构造综合权重;使用正负理想点间的投影距离代替传统的相对欧式距离对TOPSIS方法进行改进;实例分析中,通过对某航空预研项目5种不同的方案进行风险评估,得出各方案的优劣度,选出了较为优化的技术方案,该方法可用于指导其他装备研制风险的评估。     

Aerosol optical properties of regional background atmosphere in Northeast China

Aerosol optical properties from 2005 to 2008 at the Longfengshan regional background station in Northeast China were measured and analyzed. The annual mean of aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 440 nm for the four years was about 0.27 ± 0.25, 0.39 ± 0.37, 0.35 ± 0.34, and 0.38 ± 0.38, respectively, and the corresponding annual mean for the Angstrom exponent between 440 nm and 870 nm was about 1.43 ± 0.48, 1.23 ± 0.37, 1.53 ± 0.47, and 1.55 ± 0.42. The average monthly AOD_440nm showed similar seasonal variation with a maximum in spring and a minimum in autumn. The monthly means of AOD at 440, 675, 870 and 1020 nm increase from the January to March with the maxima about 0.77 ± 0.04, 0.65 ± 0.04, 0.58 ± 0.06, 0.57 ± 0.07, respectively and decrease from September to February with the minima about 0.32 ± 0.12, 0.22 ± 0.09, 0.15 ± 0.08, and 0.13 ± 0.07 in January. The monthly mean of Angstrom exponent shows a minimum in March (0.97 ± 0.52) and a maximum in September (1.66 ± 0.29). Both the AOD and Angstrom exponent presents single peak distributions of occurrence frequencies. The Longfenshan data showed high AODs (>1.00) both clustering in the fine mode growth wing and the coarse mode. Two typical cases under dust and haze conditions showed that the AOD under dusty day decreased from 2.20 to 1.20 and the Angstrom exponent increased from 0.10 to 1.00. On the contrast, the AOD under haze day remained relatively stable about 0.90 and the Angstrom exponent was around 1.40. The 3-day backtrajectory analysis at Longfengshan illustrated that the air-masses near ground on the dust day were from Bohai Sea and passed through Liaodong Peninsula and Northeast plain in China. But the air-masses on 500 m AGL were originated from western Mongolia and crossed Gobi deserts, Otindag Sand Land and Horqin Sand Land in Northeast China. The air-masses at Longfengshan near ground 500 m and 1000 m AGL on the haze days were from North China Region and passed through Northeast Heavy Industrial Base in Northeast China.     

汶川地震灾区小流域洪水计算方法初探

汶川地震灾区小流域山洪不仅造成巨大损失,同时也是泥石流等灾害的激发因素,探寻一种准确且可操作的洪水峰值流量计算方法对防灾减灾具有重要意义。本文选择不同产流和汇流计算方法,组合成不同水文模型,进行小流域洪水过程计算,对模拟结果和参数选择进行对比,旨在探究最适合该地区的小流域水文计算方法。分别选择SCS曲线法、Green-Ampt入渗法、初损稳渗法进行坡面产流计算,应用SCS单位线法、Snyder单位线法和运动波方程进行坡面和沟道汇流计算,组合成5种小流域产汇流计算模型,利用6场洪水进行参数率定和结果验证。模拟结果对比分析,得出SCS曲线法是最适宜的产流模型,其与SCS单位线、运动波汇流计算方法组合而成的SCS和SKK模型,峰现时间的模拟误差最小,在0~25 min之间;洪峰流量模拟的相对误差较小,平均误差不超过4%;洪水总量模拟误差在10%左右。另外,这两种模型参数设置及确定较简单,更适合在数据稀缺的小流域中进行洪水模拟应用。研究可为汶川地震灾区小流域山洪和泥石流等灾害的流量估算提供方法和参数借鉴。     

环境保护成为长三角城市新型城镇化建设共识

2014年3月国家发展和改革委员会(简称国家发改委)颁布的《国家新型城镇化规划(2014—2020年)》为今后我国城镇化发展指明了方向,成为未来城镇化发展的纲领性文件。长江三角洲(简称长三角)是我国最大也是最强的经济区域,是我国仅有的世界级城市群,作为国家新型城镇化所在地,有23个成员城市列入国家试点。在《国家新型城镇化规划(2014—2020年)》颁布一周年之际,长江三角洲城市经济协