自然灾害动态风险分析的一个形式化模型

根据自然灾害动态风险分析基本原理,将概率风险模型改造成一个动态风险分析的形式化模型。由条件概率密度函数和动态脆弱性函数耦合而成的风险,随着综合环境和内在属性的变化而变化。我们建议用正态信息扩散方法估计条件概率密度函数和动态脆弱性函数。这两个重要函数的估计都不依赖人为假设,分析过程透明,结果可解释性强,具有一定的可靠性。     

基于Google Earth的1920年海原8.5级大地震地质灾害研究

详细精确的滑坡编目是地震滑坡灾害评价的前提和基础。利用Google Earth提供的多源高精度卫星影像对1920年海原8.5级地震触发的黄土滑坡进行了详细解译,共解译得到1 000处滑坡,并利用多边形圈出了滑源区和堆积区。海原地震滑坡主要集中分布于西吉县西南部和海原县东南部。统计分析表明,地震触发的滑坡灾害主要受高程、坡高、坡度、坡向等地形地貌参数的控制,大量低角度高速远程滑坡主要是由于黄土液化的作用。     

基于MODIS GPP/NPP数据的三江源地区草地生态系统碳储量及碳汇量时空变化研究

陆地生态系统碳循环研究是全球变化与地球科学研究领域的前沿与热点问题,准确地评估陆地生态系统碳储量和碳汇量是估算未来大气 CO2浓度,预测气候变化及其对陆地生态系统影响的关键。已有相关研究多集中于对区域生态系统碳储量和碳汇量的量的估算,而缺乏针对时间尺度上的变化过程的分析,以及对变化特征空间差异性的分析。本研究基于MODIS NPP数据,结合土地利用数据及土壤有机碳密度分布数据,对三江源地区2000─2010年草地生态系统碳储量时空变化特征进行了分析,同时,基于MODIS GPP数据及China FLUX和America FLUX数据,建立草地生态系统呼吸估算模型,对其碳汇量的时空变化特征进行了分析,以期明确该地区的碳储存能力及其变化过程,为该区域草地生态系统保护和管理提供科学依据。研究结果表明：（1）三江源地区草地生态系统总碳储量为53.38×108 t,平均碳密度为14.94 kg·m-2（以C计）。土壤和植被碳储量分别为53.07×108 t和0.31×108 t,平均碳密度分别为14.85 kg·m-2和86.77 g·m-2。（2）近10多年来,三江源地区草地生态系统多年平均碳汇量为0.4×108 t,单位面积平均碳汇量为86.80 g·m-2·a-1（以C计）,表明该地区草地生态体统是一个碳汇。（3）2000年以来,三江源地区草地生态系统总碳储量及总碳汇量均呈波动增加趋势,碳汇功能有所增强。（4）三江源地区草地生态系统碳储量及碳汇量的空间分布格局及其变化趋势的空间分布均呈现明显的空间差异性。（5）MODIS GPP/NPP数据能够支撑较大尺度草地生态系统碳储量及碳汇量格局与变化趋势分析,较传统方法更为便捷高效。     

江苏洋口港地区地下水的环境同位素组成及其形成演化研究

江苏洋口港地区是江苏沿海开发重点建设的深水港区,水质优良的地下水是港区经济社会发展的重要基础.本研究利用近期获得的钻孔剖面地层对比数据资料,沿水文径流剖面分层采集水样,通过识别地表水、各含水层地下水的环境同位素(δD、δ~(18)O、~3H、~(14)C)组成指纹特征,以揭示研究区地下水的形成演化规律.结果表明,研究区浅层地下水主要来源于现代大气降水的入渗补给,大气降水在补给地下水过程中经历了明显的蒸发过程;研究区深层地下水的放射性~(14)C年龄主要为15000~26000 a,其稳定同位素δ~(18)O、δD值比现代降水低,是晚更新世末次冰期(大理冰期)的盛冰期降水入渗补给.地下水含水层的氘、氧、碳同位素分布具有明显的呈层性,随着地下水埋藏深度增加,地下水中的δD、δ~(18)O值呈下降趋势.浅层地下水与地表水水力联系紧密,可更新能力较强;深层地下水径流缓慢,总体上处于封闭-半封闭状态,可更新能力弱.江苏沿海平原天然地下水流动是自晚更新世末期以来,伴随着冰退、海平面上升而调整到目前的模式.末次盛冰期以来的自然地理及地质发展史,决定着研究区第四系地下水流系统的演变格局,现代人类活动加强了浅层与深层地下水之间的水力联系.研究在高强度开发地下水条件下的区域水文循环特征,可为沿海地区地下水演变机理和调控研究提供技术支持.     

Assessment of potential dermal and inhalation exposure of workers to the insecticide imidacloprid using whole-body dosimetry in China

In China, although improvements to the pesticide registration process have beenmade in last thirty years, no occupational exposure data are required to obtain a commercial license for a pesticide product. Consequently, notably little research has been conducted to establish an exposure assessment procedure in China. The present study monitored the potential dermal operator exposure from knapsack electric sprayer wheat field application of imidacloprid in Liaocheng City, Shandong Province and in Xinxiang City, Henan Province, China, using whole-body dosimetry. The potential inhalation exposure was determined using a personal air pump and XAD-2 sample tubes. The analytical method was developed and validated, including such performance parameters as limits of detection and quantification, linear range, recovery and precision. The total potential dermal and inhalation exposures were 14.20, 16.80, 15.39 and 20.78 mL/hr, respectively, for the four operators in Liaocheng and Xinxiang, corresponding to 0.02% to 0.03% of the applied volume of spray solution. In all trials, the lower part (thigh, lower leg) of the body was the most contaminated, accounting for approximately 76% to 88% of the total exposure. The inhalation exposure was less than 1% of the total exposure. Such factors as the application pattern, crop type, spray equipment, operator experience and climatic conditions have been used to explain the exposure distribution over the different parts of the body. As indicated by the calculated Margin of Exposure, the typical wheat treatment scenarios when a backpack sprayer was used are considered to be safe in terms of imidacloprid exposure.     

Effects of water regime,crop residues,and application rates on control of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense

Biological soil disinfestation is an effective method to control soil-borne disease by flooding and incorporating with organic amendments, but field conditions and resources sometimes limited its practical application. A laboratory experiment was conducted to develop practice guidelines on controlling Fusarium wilt, a widespread banana disease caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense (FOC). FOC infested soil incorporated with rice or maize straw at rates of 1.5 tons/ha and 3.0 tons/ha was incubated under flooded or water-saturated (100% water holding capacity) conditions at 30°C for 30 days. Results showed that FOC populations in the soils incorporated with either rice or maize straw rapidly reduced more than 90% in the first 15 days and then fluctuated till the end of incubation, while flooding alone without organic amendment reduced FOC populations slightly. The rapid and dramatic decrease of redox potential (down to − 350 mV) in straw-amended treatments implied that both anaerobic condition and strongly reductive soil condition would contribute to pathogen inactivation. Water-saturation combined with straw amendments had the comparable effects on reduction of FOC, indicating that flooding was not indispensable for inactivating FOC. There was no significant difference in the reduction of FOC observed in the straw amendments at between 1.5 and 3 tons/ha. Therefore, incorporating soil with straw (rice or maize straw) at a rate of 3.0 tons/ha under 100% water holding capacity or 1.5 tons/ha under flooding, would effectively alleviate banana Fusarium wilt caused by FOC after 15-day treating under 30°C.     

Cu–Mn–Ce ternary mixed-oxide catalysts for catalytic combustion of toluene

Cu–Mn, Cu–Mn–Ce, and Cu–Ce mixed-oxide catalysts were prepared by a citric acid sol–gel method and then characterized by XRD, BET, H₂-TPR and XPS analyses. Their catalytic properties were investigated in the toluene combustion reaction. Results showed that the Cu–Mn–Ce ternary mixed-oxide catalyst with 1:2:4 mole ratios had the highest catalytic activity, and 99% toluene conversion was achieved at temperatures below 220°C. In the Cu–Mn–Ce catalyst, a portion of Cu and Mn species entered into the CeO₂ fluorite lattice, which led to the formation of a ceria-based solid solution. Excess Cu and Mn oxides existed on the surface of the ceria-based solid solution. The coexistence of Cu–Mn mixed oxides and the ceria-based solid solution resulted in a better synergetic interaction than the Cu–Mn and Cu–Ce catalysts, which promoted catalyst reducibility, increased oxygen mobility, and enhanced the formation of abundant active oxygen species.     

Promoting effect of vanadium on catalytic activity of Pt/Ce–Zr–O diesel oxidation catalysts

A series of Pt–V/Ce–Zr–O diesel oxidation catalysts was prepared using the impregnation method. The catalytic activity and sulfur resistance of Pt–V/Ce–Zr–O were investigated in the presence of simulated diesel exhaust. The effect of vanadium on the structure and redox properties of the catalysts was also investigated using the Brunauer–Emmett–Teller method,X-ray diffraction, H2temperature-programmed reduction, CO temperature-programmed desorption, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy. Results showed that the Pt particles were well dispersed on the Ce–Zr–O carrier through the vanadium isolation effect, which significantly improved the oxidation activity toward CO and hydrocarbons. An electron-withdrawing phenomenon occurred from V to Pt, resulting in an increase in the metallic nature of platinum, which was beneficial to hydrocarbon molecular activation.     

Do vehicular emissions dominate the source of C6–C8 aromatics in the megacity Shanghai of eastern China?

The characteristic ratios of volatile organic compounds(VOCs) to i-pentane, the indicator of vehicular emissions, were employed to apportion the vehicular and non-vehicular contributions to reactive species in urban Shanghai. Two kinds of tunnel experiments, one tunnel with more than 90% light duty gasoline vehicles and the other with more than 60% light duty diesel vehicles, were carried out to study the characteristic ratios of vehicle-related emissions from December 2009 to January 2010. Based on the experiments, the characteristic ratios of C6–C8aromatics to i-pentane of vehicular emissions were 0.53 ± 0.08(benzene), 0.70 ± 0.12(toluene),0.41 ± 0.09(m,p-xylenes), 0.16 ± 0.04(o-xylene), 0.023 ± 0.011(styrene), and 0.15 ± 0.02(ethylbenzene), respectively. The source apportionment results showed that around 23.3% of C6–C8 aromatics in urban Shanghai were from vehicular emissions, which meant that the non-vehicular emissions had more importance. These findings suggested that emission control of non-vehicular sources, i.e. industrial emissions, should also receive attention in addition to the control of vehicle-related emissions in Shanghai. The chemical removal of VOCs during the transport from emissions to the receptor site had a large impact on the apportionment results. Generally, the overestimation of vehicular contributions would occur when the VOC reaction rate constant with OH radicals(k OH) was larger than that of the vehicular indicator, while for species with smaller k OH than the vehicular indicator, the vehicular contribution would be underestimated by the method of characteristic ratios.     

Piriformospora indica confers cadmium tolerance in Nicotiana tabacum

Piriformospora indica, a root-colonizing endophytic fungus of Sebacinales, promotes plant growth and confers resistance against biotic and abiotic stresses. In order to confirm the influence of P. indica on growth, proline, malondialdehyde (MDA), chlorophyll, and cadmium (Cd) amounts in Nicotiana tabacum under Cd stress, hydroponics, pot and field trials were conducted. The results showed that P. indica can store Cd in plant roots and reduce leaf Cd content, reduce the concentration of MDA, and increase the proline and chlorophyll content and the activities of catalase, peroxidase, and superoxide dismutase under hydroponic Cd stress. RT-PCR analysis showed that the relative expression level of genes Gsh2, TaPCS1, oas1, GPX, and Hsp70 in colonized plants was 4.3, 1.4, 2.9, 1.7, and 6.9 fold higher than in un-colonized plants respectively. Cd exposure significantly reduced un-colonized plants'' agronomic traits compared to P. indica-colonized ones. Our results suggested that P. indica can sequester Cd in roots, so that much less cadmium was transported to leaves, and the increased concentrations of antioxidant enzymes, pigments and proline contents, as well as the higher expression of stress-related phytochelatin biosynthesis genes in P. indica-inoculated plants, may also serve to protect N. tabacum plants against oxidative damage, enhancing Cd tolerance.