Exploring the risks and benefits of flexibility in biodiversity offset location in a case study of migratory shorebirds

Biodiversity offsets aim to counterbalance the residual impacts of development on species and ecosystems. Guidance documents explicitly recommend that biodiversity offset actions be located close to the location of impact because of higher potential for similar ecological conditions, but allowing greater spatial flexibility has been proposed. We examined the circumstances under which offsets distant from the impact location could be more likely to achieve no net loss or provide better ecological outcomes than offsets close to the impact area. We applied a graphical model for migratory shorebirds in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway as a case study to explore the problems that arise when incorporating spatial flexibility into offset planning. Spatially flexible offsets may alleviate impacts more effectively than local offsets; however, the risks involved can be substantial. For our case study, there were inadequate data to make robust conclusions about the effectiveness and equivalence of distant habitat-based offsets for migratory shorebirds. Decisions around offset placement should be driven by the potential to achieve equivalent ecological outcomes; however, when considering more distant offsets, there is a need to evaluate the likely increased risks alongside the potential benefits. Although spatially flexible offsets have the potential to provide more cost-effective biodiversity outcomes and more cobenefits, our case study showed the difficulty of demonstrating these benefits in practice and the potential risks that need to be considered to ensure effective offset placement.     

Case study of landfill leachate recirculation using small-diameter vertical wells

A case study of landfill liquids addition using small diameter (5 cm) vertical wells is reported. More than 25,000 m³ of leachate was added via 134 vertical wells installed 3 m, 12 m, and 18 m deep over five years in a landfill in Florida, US. Liquids addition performance (flow rate per unit screen length per unit liquid head) ranged from 5.6 × 10^?8 to 3.6 × 10^?6 m³ s^?1 per m screen length per m liquid head. The estimated radial hydraulic conductivity ranged from 3.5 × 10^?6 to 4.2 × 10^?4 m s^?1. The extent of lateral moisture movement ranged from 8 to 10 m based on the responses of moisture sensors installed around vertical well clusters, and surface seeps were found to limit the achievable liquids addition rates, despite the use of concrete collars under a pressurized liquids addition scenario. The average moisture content before (51 samples) and after (272 samples) the recirculation experiments were 23% (wet weight basis) and 45% (wet weight basis), respectively, and biochemical methane potential measurements of excavated waste indicated significant (p < 0.025) decomposition.     

Using a Bayesian network to clarify areas requiring research in a host–pathogen system

Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease‐driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host–pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for reviewing existing literature, identifying links poorly supported by evidence, and understanding complexities in emerging infectious‐disease systems.     

Development of the Metropolitan Water Availability Index (MWAI) and short-term assessment with multi-scale remote sensing technologies

Global climate change will influence environmental conditions including temperature, surface radiation, soil moisture, and sea level, and it will also significantly impact regional-scale hydrologic processes such as evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, runoff, and snowmelt. The quantity and quality of water available for drinking and other domestic usage is also likely to be affected by changes in these processes. Consequently, it is necessary to assess and reflect upon the challenges ahead for water infrastructure and the general public in metropolitan regions. One approach to the problem is to use index-based assessment, forecasting and planning. The drought indices previously developed were not developed for domestic water supplies, and thus are insufficient for the purpose of such an assessment. This paper aims to propose and develop a “Metropolitan Water Availability Index (MWAI)” to assess the status of both the quantity and quality of available potable water sources diverted from the hydrologic cycle in a metropolitan region. In this approach, the accessible water may be expressed as volume per month or week (i.e., m³/month or m³/week) relative to a prescribed historical record, and such a trend analysis may result in final MWAI values ranging from ?1 to +1 for regional water management decision making. The MWAI computation uses data and information from both historical point measurements and spatial remote-sensing based monitoring. Variables such as precipitation, river discharge, and water quality changes at drinking water plant intakes at specific locations are past “point” measurements in MWAI calculations. On the other hand, remote sensing provides information on both spatial and temporal distributions of key variables. Examples of remote-sensing images and sensor network technologies are in-situ sensor networks, ground-based radar, air-borne aircraft, and even space-borne satellites. A case study in Tampa Bay, Florida is described to demonstrate the short-term assessment of the MWAI concept at a practical level. It is anticipated that such a forecasting methodology may be extended for middle-term and long-term water supply assessment.     

Female reproductive qualities affect male painted turtle (Chrysemys picta marginata) reproductive success

Male reproductive success (RS) in polygamous species with minimal social systems is often determined by the number of mates. However, because male RS is translated through females, the number of offspring sired can also be influenced by female qualities. Empirically sufficient data to document how tradeoffs between mate number and quality influence male RS are seldom available for long-lived, iteroparous species. We combined long-term life history data (1983–2006) on the E. S. George Reserve (ESGR, MI, USA) with parentage data from 155 clutches of 59 female painted turtles (Chrysemys picta marginata) of varying reproductive frequencies (2003–2006) to determine the relative contribution of female numbers and qualities on male RS. One previously documented trait of female painted turtles that can have substantial influences on male RS is repeat paternity through the use of stored sperm to fertilize over 95 % of within-year clutches. In addition, our study found that second-clutch producing female painted turtles on the ESGR have higher among-year reproductive frequencies than do first-clutch only females. Multiple paternity was detected in 14.1 % of clutches (min-max?=?6.1–30.0 % annually), and the number of mates of both sexes was low annually (males 1.0; females 1.2) and over 4 years (males 1.1; females 1.7). Among successful males, RS varied substantially (1–32 offspring) and was strongly influenced by the combination of female reproductive frequency and repeat paternity (>38 % among years), but not mate number. Low mate number for both sexes was unexpected in a species without complex mating behaviors or parental care.     

Geochemical distribution,bioavailability and potential toxicity of some trace metals in a complex micro-tidal estuary,Southwest India

The spatial and temporal variations of some trace metals in the surface sediments of Cochin Estuary were analyzed along with their geochemical associations to identify the possible sources, bioavailability and the health risks posed by them. The dominance of kaolinite and suggested that clay minerals distribution is influenced by sediment sorting. Total metal analysis revealed enrichment for Cd, Pb and Zn due to anthropogenic activities. The speciation analysis established that notwithstanding the large availability, carbonate as well as organic and sulfides bound fractions showed negligible associations with most of the metals. Hydrous Fe–Mn oxides appeared to play a major role in controlling the fate and transport of these metals in the sediments of Cochin Estuary. Lower contribution of the residual fractions for Cd (21%–26%), Pb (<60%) and Zn (24%–42%) indicated an obvious increase of other geochemical fractions. Risk assessment analysis revealed that regardless of total concentration, none of the analyzed metals were at safe levels in the estuary as appreciable percentages were found to be associated with mobile geochemical forms. The speciation study conspicuously established that the metals originating from non-geogenic sources are largely associated with the labile fractions and hence are more detrimental to the aquatic biota.     

Quantifying population declines based on presence‐only records for red‐list assessments

Accurate trend estimates are necessary for understanding which species are declining and which are most in need of conservation action. Imperfect species detection may result in unreliable trend estimates because this may lead to the overestimation of declines. Because many management decisions are based on population trend estimates, such biases could have severe consequences for conservation policy. We used an occupancy‐modeling framework to estimate detectability and calculate nationwide population trends for 14 Swiss amphibian species both accounting for and ignoring imperfect detection. Through the application of International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List criteria to the different trend estimates, we assessed whether ignoring imperfect detection could affect conservation policy. Imperfect detection occurred for all species and detection varied substantially among species, which led to the overestimation of population declines when detectability was ignored. Consequently, accounting for imperfect detection lowered the red‐list risk category for 5 of the 14 species assessed. We demonstrate that failing to consider species detectability can have serious consequences for species management and that occupancy modeling provides a flexible framework to account for observation bias and improve assessments of conservation status. A problem inherent to most historical records is that they contain presence‐only data from which only relative declines can be estimated. A move toward the routine recording of nonobservation and absence data is essential if conservation practitioners are to move beyond this toward accurate population trend estimation.