Directional changes in the species composition of a tropical forest

Long-term studies have revealed that the structure and dynamics of many tropical forests are changing, but the causes and consequences of these changes remain debated. To learn more about the forces driving changes within tropical forests, we investigated shifts in tree species composition over the past 25 years within the 50-ha Forest Dynamics Plot on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and examined how observed patterns relate to predictions of (1) random population fluctuations, (2) carbon fertilization, (3) succession from past disturbance, (4) recovery from an extreme El Ni?o drought at the start of the study period, and (5) long-term climate change. We found that there have been consistent and directional changes in the tree species composition. These shifts have led to increased relative representations of drought-tolerant species as determined by the species' occurrence both across a gradient of soil moisture within BCI and across a wider precipitation gradient from a dry forest near the Pacific coast of Panama to a wet forest near its Caribbean coast. These nonrandom changes cannot be explained by stochastic fluctuations or carbon fertilization. They may be the legacy of the El Ni?o drought, or alternatively, potentially reflect increased aridity due to long-term climate change. By investigating compositional changes, we increased not only our understanding of the ecology of tropical forests and their responses to large-scale disturbances, but also our ability to predict how future global change will impact some of the critical services provided by these important ecosystems.     

Urinary multiple marker screening for down's syndrome

We have examined the possibility of using multiple markers in maternal urine rather than serum in order to screen for Down's syndrome. Urine samples were available from 36 cases (24 Down's syndrome, five Edwards' syndrome, three Turner's syndrome, one Klinefelter's syndrome, one triploidy, one triple-X, one twin discordant for Down's syndrome) and 294 controls, including three twins. Three markers were tested: the β-core fragment of human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), total oestrogen (tE) and the free a subunit of hCG. Levels were corrected for creatinine excretion and expressed as multiples of the gestation-specific median (MOM) level from the singleton controls. The median value for the singleton Down's syndrome cases was 6.02, 0.74, and 1.08 MOM for β-core-hCG, tE, and a-hCG, respectively. The increases in β-core-hCG and the reduction in tE levels were highly significant (P<0.0001 and 0.005, respectively; Wilcoxon rank sum test) but the increase in free a-hCG was not (P=0.40). On the basis of a mathematical model, the expected detection rate for a 5 per cent false-positive rate was 79.6 per cent for β-core-hCG alone, which increased to 82.3 per cent when combined with tE. Aneuploidies other than Down's syndrome were characterized by low levels of tE and either low or high β-core-hCG.     

Evidence for covalently bonded chlorine–fullerene formed by ozonation and chlorination at room temperature

This article reports for the first time that fullerene (nC₆₀) can form chlorinated disinfection by-products in aqueous systems at ambient temperature. The ability of nC₆₀ to form colloidal suspensions in aqueous media increases the chance that these particles will migrate in the environment and then in drinking water supply systems. Since nC₆₀ is not completely removed by conventional water treatment, any residual nC₆₀ is likely to be oxidized during disinfection process. While the ozonation of nC₆₀ has been studied, little is known about the reaction between nC₆₀ and chlorine. To address this issue, we subjected aqueous nC₆₀ suspensions to chlorination and sequential ozonation/chlorination at ozone dosages of 4.5, 10, 15 and 24 mg O₃/mg nC₆₀. The morphology and physicochemical properties of oxidized nC₆₀ aggregates were evaluated by scanning electron microscopy, transmission electron microscopy, UV–visible absorption spectroscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). We found that while the particles in the as-prepared nC₆₀ were predominantly spheres, the ozonation of nC₆₀ resulted in the formation of irregularly shaped aggregates. The concentration of atomic carbon found by XPS in the nC₆₀ samples decreased from 92 % for the as-prepared nC₆₀ to 50 % for the aggregates ozonated at 24 mg O₃/mg nC₆₀ and then chlorinated at 68 mg Cl₂/L and allowed to react for 100 min. The presence of Cl atoms covalently bonded to C atoms was confirmed by XPS peaks corresponding to a binding energy (E _b) of 200.1–202.4 eV. This demonstrates the need to better assess and monitor the formation of potentially toxic chlorinated disinfection by-products from carbon nanomaterials during water treatment.     

Incompletely resolved phylogenetic trees inflate estimates of phylogenetic conservatism

The tendency for more closely related species to share similar traits and ecological strategies can be explained by their longer shared evolutionary histories and represents phylogenetic conservatism. How strongly species traits co-vary with phylogeny can significantly impact how we analyze cross-species data and can influence our interpretation of assembly rules in the rapidly expanding field of community phylogenetics. Phylogenetic conservatism is typically quantified by analyzing the distribution of species values on the phylogenetic tree that connects them. Many phylogenetic approaches, however, assume a completely sampled phylogeny: while we have good estimates of deeper phylogenetic relationships for many species-rich groups, such as birds and flowering plants, we often lack information on more recent interspecific relationships (i.e., within a genus). A common solution has been to represent these relationships as polytomies on trees using taxonomy as a guide. Here we show that such trees can dramatically inflate estimates of phylogenetic conservatism quantified using S. P. Blomberg et al.'s K statistic. Using simulations, we show that even randomly generated traits can appear to be phylogenetically conserved on poorly resolved trees. We provide a simple rarefaction-based solution that can reliably retrieve unbiased estimates of K, and we illustrate our method using data on first flowering times from Thoreau's woods (Concord, Massachusetts, USA).     

Trajectories of change in sagebrush steppe vegetation communities in relation to multiple wildfires

Repeated perturbations, both biotic and abiotic, can lead to fundamental changes in the nature of ecosystems, including changes in state. Sagebrush steppe communities provide important habitat for wildlife and grazing for livestock. Fire is an integral part of these systems, but there is concern that increased ignition frequencies and invasive species are fundamentally altering them. Despite these issues, the majority of studies of fire effects in systems dominated by Artemisia tridentata wyomingensis have focused on the effects of single burns. The Arid Lands Ecology Reserve (ALE), in south-central Washington (U.S.A.), was one of the largest contiguous areas of sagebrush steppe habitat in the state until large wildfires burned the majority of it in 2000 and 2007. We analyzed data from permanent vegetation transects established in 1996 and resampled in 2002 and 2009. Our objective was to describe how the fires, and subsequent postfire restoration efforts, affected communities' successional pathways. Plant communities differed in response to repeated fire and restoration; these differences could largely be ascribed to the functional traits of the dominant species. Low-elevation communities, previously dominated by obligate seeders, moved furthest from their initial composition and were dominated by weedy, early-successional species in 2009. Higher-elevation sites with resprouting shrubs, native bunchgrasses, and few invasive species were generally more resilient to the effects of repeated disturbances. Shrub cover has been almost entirely removed from ALE, although there was some recovery where communities were dominated by resprouters. Bromus tectorum dominance was reduced by herbicide application in areas where it was previously abundant, but it increased significantly in untreated areas. Several resprouting species, notably Phlox longifolia and Poa secunda, expanded remarkably following competitive release from shrub canopies and/or abundant B. tectorum. Our results suggest that community dynamics can be understood through a state and transition model with two axes (shrub/grass and native/invasive abundance), although such models also need to account for differences in plant functional traits and disturbance regimes. We use our results to develop a conceptual model that will be validated with further research.     

Where do we go from here? Environmental focus groups and planning policy formation

Focus groups have achieved a profile in the analysis of public values unparalleled since the emergence of national opinion polls. While they have been used in a variety of public policy, academic and political settings it is their employment within the field of environmental policy, specifically the land-use planning system, that is the focus of this paper. Using evidence from empirical research it is argued that the research-policy interface of environmental focus groups and planning is currently both undertheorised and underpractised. Undertheorised in that much of the literature on focus groups concentrates on their conduct rather than how they can inform policy. Underpractised because focus group data are failing to have much impact on policy. This paper concentrates on the second of these propositions by showing that while some of the problems with quantitative public environmental values surveys can be overcome by focus groups, the nature and content of the data they produce are not easily assimilated by existing planning structures. In an era when the role of the public, in all its diversity, is being emphasised in policy circles, and collaborative projects between academia and policy communities on environmental issues are becoming increasingly commonplace, early warning signs of tensions between research findings and policy development need to be heeded. A failure to acknowledge these problems may well lead to impoverished environmental policy in planning, a further marginalisation of publics from policy processes and an unjust devaluation of the focus-group method.