Stationary and non-stationary autoregressive processes with external inputs for predicting trends in water quality

An autoregressive approach for the prediction of water quality trends in systems subject to varying meteorological conditions and short observation periods is discussed. Under these conditions, the dynamics of the system can be reliably forecast, provided their internal processes are understood and characterized independently of the external inputs. A methodology based on stationary and non-stationary autoregressive processes with external inputs (ARX) is proposed to assess and predict trends in hydrosystems which are at risk of contamination by organic and inorganic pollutants, such as pesticides or nutrients. The procedures are exemplified for the transport of atrazine and its main metabolite deethylatrazine in a small agricultural catchment in France. The approach is expected to be of particular value to assess current and future trends in water quality as part of the European Water Framework Directive and Groundwater Directives.     

The history of seabird colonies and the North Water ecosystem: Contributions from palaeoecological and archaeological evidence

The North Water (NOW) polynya is one of the most productive marine areas of the Arctic and an important breeding area for millions of seabirds. There is, however, little information on the dynamics of the polynya or the bird populations over the long term. Here, we used sediment archives from a lake and peat deposits along the Greenland coast of the NOW polynya to track long-term patterns in the dynamics of the seabird populations. Radiocarbon dates show that the thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia) and the common eider (Somateria mollissima) have been present for at least 5500 cal. years. The first recorded arrival of the little auk (Alle alle) was around 4400 cal. years bp at Annikitsoq, with arrival at Qeqertaq (Salve Ø) colony dated to 3600 cal. years bp. Concentrations of cadmium and phosphorus (both abundant in little auk guano) in the lake and peat cores suggest that there was a period of large variation in bird numbers between 2500 and 1500 cal. years bp. The little auk arrival times show a strong accord with past periods of colder climate and with some aspects of human settlement in the area.     

Interactions of climate,socio-economics,and global mercury pollution in the North Water

Despite the remoteness of the North Water, Northwest Greenland, the local Inughuit population is affected by global anthropogenic pollution and climate change. Using a cross-disciplinary approach combining Mercury (Hg) analysis, catch information, and historical and anthropological perspectives, this article elucidates how the traditional diet is compromised by Hg pollution originating from lower latitudes. In a new approach we here show how the Inughuits in Avanersuaq are subject to high Hg exposure from the hunted traditional food, consisting of mainly marine seabirds and mammals. Violation of the provisional tolerably yearly intake of Hg, on average by a factor of 11 (range 7–15) over the last 20 years as well as the provisional tolerably monthly intake by a factor of 6 (range 2–16), raises health concerns. The surplus of Selenium (Se) in wildlife tissues including narwhals showed Se:Hg molar ratios of 1.5, 2.3, and 16.7 in muscle, liver, and mattak, respectively, likely to provide some protection against the high Hg exposure.     

Internally controlled PCR system for detection of airborne microorganisms

Recently, we reported the outcomes of feasibility studies of a technological approach allowing rapid detection of a wide range of bioaerosols by combining a personal bioaerosol sampler with a real-time PCR technology. The protocol was found suitable for detection of targeted microorganisms within relatively short time periods. Considering the crucial importance of the PCR procedure quality control, the current paper reports the results of the development of an internally controlled PCR system for utilization by the above technology. The suggested strategy is based on utilization of only two fluorescent dyes, which are used respectively for target and internal amplification control (IAC) DNA amplification. A bacteriophage T4 and recombinant phage fd (M13) were used in this research as target and IAC, respectively. The constructed IAC was added directly to the collection liquid of the personal bioaerosol sampler enabling quality control to be present throughout the entire sampling-analysis procedures. For performance evaluation, serial ten-fold dilutions of T4 phage were aerosolized and sampled over a 10 minutes time period. The results showed that T4 phage could be reliably detected at the concentration of around 200 PFU per litre of air over the 10 minutes sampling period. The developed PCR assay demonstrated high specificity and no cross reaction. It is concluded that the recombinant phage fd is suitable for utilization as an internal control enabling to significantly minimize false negative results for bioaerosol detection procedures.     

Physiological–biochemical properties of blue mussel Mytilus edulis adaptation to oil contamination

Bivalves have a known ability to accumulate different contaminants from ambient water and can therefore serve as bioindicators. The paper analyses certain biochemical and physiological parameters of blue mussels in response to varying oil product concentrations. The heart rate (HR) of blue mussels from the sublittoral zone exposed to different levels of oil products was investigated in a long-term experiment using non-invasive monitoring. A sharp rise in HR was observed at oil concentrations of 8.0 and 38.0 mg/l. A decreasing in mussel HR under the effect of lower concentrations (0.4 and 1.9 mg/l) was significant on the fourth day. Strong fluctuations of the cardiac activity were noted under all concentrations. After 6 days of oil treatment, tissues of the mussels were sampled to determine the total lipid composition. Low concentrations of oil products produced no reliable changes in the lipid composition whereas high concentrations induced significant changes in the ratio of lipid components (cholesterol and phospholipids).     

Black carbon concentrations in a goods-movement neighborhood of Philadelphia,PA

Communities along the Delaware River in Philadelphia, USA such as Port Richmond, are subject to traffic associated with goods movement to and from port facilities and local industry. Air pollution associated with this traffic poses an environmental health concern in this and other urban areas. Our study measures black carbon (BC) in Port Richmond and examines its relationship to expected sources such as truck traffic. We used a participatory sampling method to conduct 1-min measurements over 8-hour periods at 14 homes, a school and park, during a 4-week period in June 2012. Measurements over 9 sampling days had a 30-min average BC concentration of 1.2 μg m^?3, and a maximum of 12 μg m^?3. Statistical analyses showed some effect of traffic, but greater association between BC concentrations and weather and time of day. BC concentrations varied more by location than by day, and distance to traffic arterials and interstate freeway was a predictor of this variance. While our dataset is limited by number and variety of observations, major findings indicate that BC concentration varies more by location than by day, there is a decrease in median BC concentration with increased distance from an interstate highway, and an expected effect of diesel traffic on average daily BC concentrations. Our findings are an important step towards understanding patterns and determinants of BC concentration in communities colocated with major ports. Our study also demonstrates that participatory methods in air pollution monitoring can help increase awareness of local air pollution levels.     

Ecological validity of river-floodplain system assessment by planktonic crustacean survey (Branchiata: Branchiopoda)

Studies of the Slovakian Danube have indicated profound changes in the structures of several invertebrate assemblages in the section of the river bypassed by the Gab?íkovo hydroelectric project in 1992 and in adjacent floodplain water bodies. The present study investigates the relationship between hydrological connectivity and species diversity in the old main channel and adjacent left-bank water bodies, using resident cladocerans as indicators of the ecological integrity of the river-floodplain system. The work aimed to quantify cladoceran habitat preferences using habitat values (HV) and indication weights (IW) calculated from data accumulated during long-term monitoring of planktonic communities of the Danube floodplain (1,840.5–1,804 rkm) and supplemented with data from the literature. Although not listed as an indicator group in the European Union Water Framework Directive, cladocerans are shown to be highly apposite in the ecological assessment of river-floodplain systems. Of 71 recorded cladoceran species, 19 taxa showed a preference for eupotamal habitats, 24 species preferred eupotamal B/parapotamal waters, and 28 cladocerans were found to prefer the plesiopotamal/paleopotamal habitat type. Identified habitat types follow a gradient of hydrological connectivity with the main river channel, ranging from the eupotamal to more or less isolated floodplain water bodies. A secondary aim was to use the calculated values to assess the ecological integrity of the river-floodplain system. The key element of this procedure is the calculation of the Floodplain Index (FI) (Chovanec et al. Large Rivers, 15(1–4), 169–185 2005) from the summation of the habitat values and indication weights of all species present at the sampling sites. Calculated index values indicate the extent of disruption to lateral connectivity in the floodplain area.     

Decision making to address complexity in systems and organizations

Environment Systems and Decisions -