Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

The effect of filter material on bioaerosol collection of Bacillus subtilis spores used as a Bacillus anthracis simulant

The objective of this study was to determine filter materials and extraction methods that are appropriate to use for environmental sampling of B. anthracis. Four types of filters were tested: mixed cellulose ester (MCE) with a pore size of 3 microm, polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) with pore sizes of 1 and 3 microm, and gelatin with a pore size of 3 microm. Bacillus subtilis var. niger endospores (also known as Bacillus globigii[BG]) were used as a surrogate for B. anthracis. Endospores were collected into Button Inhalable Aerosol Samplers with sampling times of 15 minutes, 1 hour, and 4 hours. Physical collection efficiency was determined by measuring upstream and downstream B. subtilis concentrations with an optical particle counter. Vortexing with ultrasonic agitation and vortexing with shaker agitation extraction methods were evaluated. The MCE, 1 microm PTFE, and gelatin filters provided physical collection efficiencies of 94% or greater. The 3 microm PTFE filter showed inconsistent physical efficiency characteristics between filters. Epifluorescence microscopic analysis of the gelatin filter extraction fluid revealed the presence of contamination by non-culturable bacteria. Mean differences for microbial culturability were not statistically significant for filter materials and extraction methods. However, the vortexing with shaker agitation extraction method resulted in higher total microbial counts in the extraction fluids for MCE and 1 microm PTFE filters when compared to vortexing with ultrasonic agitation. In summary, the MCE and 1 microm PTFE filters in combination with vortexing and shaker extraction demonstrated the best performance for the filter collection and extraction of BG spores.     

Analysis of pollutant levels in central Hong Kong applying neural network method with particle swarm optimization

Air pollution has emerged as an imminent issue in modernsociety. Prediction of pollutant levels is an importantresearch topic in atmospheric environment today. For fulfillingsuch prediction, the use of neural network (NN), and inparticular the multi-layer perceptrons, has presented to be acost-effective technique superior to traditional statisticalmethods. But their training, usually with back-propagation (BP)algorithm or other gradient algorithms, is often with certaindrawbacks, such as: 1) very slow convergence, and 2) easilygetting stuck in a local minimum. In this paper, a newlydeveloped method, particle swarm optimization (PSO) model, isadopted to train perceptrons, to predict pollutant levels, andas a result, a PSO-based neural network approach is presented. The approach is demonstrated to be feasible and effective bypredicting some real air-quality problems.     

Design of National Groundwater Quality Monitoring Network in Egypt

In the Nile Valley and Delta the protection of groundwater resources is high priority environmental concern. Many groundwater quality problems are already dispersed and may be widespread and frequent in occurrence. Examples include problems associated with the extensive application of chemical fertilizers in agricultural specially in the new reclaimed areas, leaks in sewers, septic tanks, the aggregate effects of many different points source pollution in urban areas and natural, geologically related water quality problems. A national groundwater quality monitoring has been designed and implemented based on the stepwise procedure. The national groundwater quality monitoring network is used to quantify the quality changes in long run, either caused by pollution activities or by salt water intrusion and to describe the overall current groundwater quality status on a national scale of the main aquifers. The monitoring tools and methodologies developed in this research can be used to assure protection of public health and determine the sustainability of groundwater in various purposes. This national monitoring network plays important roles for decision makers in developing the groundwater resources management plans in different aquifers systems in Egypt.     

Tree species in relation to soil moisture regime in northwestern Ontario,Canada

Selected data on site, vegetation cover, and soil, including soil moisture regime (SMR), were collected from 2 167 field plots in northwestern Ontario, Canada. SMR provides an estimate of an averaged, annualized soil moisture supply throughout a complete vegetation cycle. SMR is based upon a relative scale that subjectively ranks sites from , 0, and 1 through 9 along a soil moisture continuum which relates to a dry to wet gradient. SMR may be generally correlated to tree growth, stand composition, degree of competition, nutrient availability and overall site quality.This paper reports on relationships between SMR and major tree species. Results highlight relationships between SMR class and the broad ecological ranges of several tree species. In northwestern Ontario, the determination of SMR can help resource managers to better understand the ecology of boreal sites.     

The efficacy of protoporphyrin as a predictive biomarker for lead exposure in canvasback ducks: Effect of sample storage time

We used 363 blood samples collected from wild canvasback dueks (Aythya valisineria) at Catahoula Lake, Louisiana, U.S.A. to evaluate the effect of sample storage time on the efficacy of erythrocytic protoporphyrin as an indicator of lead exposure. The protoporphyrin concentration of each sample was determined by hematofluorometry within 5 min of blood collection and after refrigeration at 4 °C for 24 and 48 h. All samples were analyzed for lead by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Based on a blood lead concentration of 0.2 ppm wet weight as positive evidence for lead exposure, the protoporphyrin technique resulted in overall error rates of 29%, 20%, and 19% and false negative error rates of 47%, 29% and 25% when hematofluorometric determinations were made on blood at 5 min, 24 h, and 48 h, respectively. False positive error rates were less than 10% for all three measurement times. The accuracy of the 24-h erythrocytic protoporphyrin classification of blood samples as positive or negative for lead exposure was significantly greater than the 5-min classification, but no improvement in accuracy was gained when samples were tested at 48 h. The false negative errors were probably due, at least in part, to the lag time between lead exposure and the increase of blood protoporphyrin concentrations. False negatives resulted in an underestimation of the true number of canvasbacks exposed to lead, indicating that hematofluorometry provides a conservative estimate of lead exposure.The U.S. Government's right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledgedDeceased     

Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences of a Future Environment

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover, and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has dealt primarily with resources of habitat, visual quality, and groundwater related to urban development patterns and preferences. In the present study, previously defined future scenarios, in the form of land-use/land-cover grids, were examined relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., surface runoff and sediment yield). These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future as a demonstration of how new geographic information system-based hydrologic modeling tools can be used to evaluate the spatial impacts of urban growth patterns on surface-water hydrology.     

Mercury and trace elements in cloud water and precipitation collected on Mt. Mansfield,Vermont

The lack of high quality measurements of Hg and trace elements in cloud and fog water led to the design of a new collector for clean sequential sampling of cloud and fog water. Cloud water was collected during nine non-precipitating cloud events on Mt. Mansfield, VT in the northeastern USA between August 1 and October 31, 1998. Sequential samples were collected during six of these events. Mercury cloud water concentrations ranged from 7.5 to 71.8 ng l(-1), with a mean of 24.8 ng l(-1). Liquid water content explained about 60% of the variability in Hg cloud concentrations. Highest Hg cloud water concentrations were found to be associated with transport from the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio River Valley, and lowest concentrations with transport from the north of Mt. Mansfield out of Canada. Twenty-nine event precipitation samples were collected during the ten-week cloud sampling period near the base of Mt. Mansfield as part of a long-term deposition study. The Hg concentrations of cloud water were similar to, but higher on average (median of 12.5 ng l(-1)) than Hg precipitation concentrations (median of 10.5 ng l(-1)). Cloud and precipitation samples were analyzed for fifteen trace elements including Mg, Cu, Zn, As, Cd and Pb by ICP-MS. Mean concentrations were higher in cloud water than precipitation for elements with predominately anthropogenic, but not crustal origin in samples from the same source region. One possible explanation is greater in-cloud scavenging of crustal elements in precipitating than non-precipitating clouds, and greater below-cloud scavenging of crustal than anthropogenic aerosols.     

Suspended particulates and bioaerosols emitted from an agricultural non-point source

Suspended particulate and bioaerosol levels were measured at three sites downwind of an agricultural non-point source during the wheat harvesting season. Suspended particulates were detected at mean values ranging from 10000 to 2420 micrograms m-3 at distances of from 20 to 60 m downwind of the source, respectively. Airborne viable bacterial counts were recorded at mean values ranging between 10(4) and 10(6) colony forming units (cfu) m-3, whereas, Gram negative (Gram -ve) bacteria varied between 10(3) and 10(5) cfu m-3. Fungi levels were detected at mean values varying between 10(5) and 10(6) cfu m-3. However, streptomycetes were found at lower counts than those recorded for viable bacteria and fungi. Total viable bacteria, Gram -ve bacteria, fungi and streptomycetes associated hay fragments were determined at mean values of 1.5 x 10(6), 1.6 x 10(3), 2.2 x 10(4) and 6 x 10(3) cfu g-1 of hay, respectively. Cladosporium, white and red yeasts as well as Alternaria were the predominant airborne fungi, whereas, Alternaria was the dominant species associated with hay fragments. Pseudomonas, Acinetobacter and Enterobacteriaceae were the dominant Gram -ve bacteria. The most common fungal genera, such as Cladosporium and Fusarium (minor short axis), as well as Streptomyces species have an aerodynamic diameter (dae) of less than 5 microns, which can penetrate and deposit in the alveoli. Farmers and nearby residents are exposed to high levels of organic dust and bioaerosols during the wheat harvesting season. This may cause health problems in exposed persons based on toxic or allergic reactions.     

Dissolved and Total Copper in a Coal Ash Effluent and Receiving Stream: Assessment of In Situ Biological Effects

An in situ chemical and biological study was conducted in the lower Muskingum River (southeast Ohio, U.S.A.) to evaluate potential effects of copper (Cu) discharged from a coal ash effluent. Effluent total Cu, dissolved Cu, TSS and pH measurements were performed monthly during January-December 1995. Benthic macroinvertebrates were sampled at five river locations using artificial substrate samplers, and in situ Cu analyses were conducted. Effluent Cu (total) ranged from 8 to 142 microg L(-1) (mean = 58 microg L(-1)), but dissolved Cu never exceeded 78 microg L(-1) (mean = 20 microg L(-1)). The mean ratio of dissolved Cu to total Cu in these samples was 32%. Total Cu concentrations at the biological sampling sites adjacent to the effluent discharge were higher than levels at ambient sites, but dissolved Cu levels were similar among all sites. The macroinvertebrate community proximal to the coal ash effluent had the highest number of taxa and total number of individuals; a high number of mayfly and caddis fly taxa; and the highest Invertebrate Community Index score. The high water velocity of the discharge (which likely contained particulate organic matter) apparently created a favorable microhabitat that, combined with Cu-complexing constituents in the discharge, superceded potential adverse effects of high Cu levels. This study emphasizes the importance of instream biological data when obtained in conjunction with chemical analyses.