Using Modeling to Improve Monitoring of Structured Populations: Are We Collecting the Right Data?

Abstract:  Population monitoring is central to most demographic studies and conservation efforts, but it may not always be directed at the most appropriate life stage. We used stochastic simulation modeling to evaluate the effectiveness of a monitoring program for a well-studied population of Eastern Imperial Eagles ( Aquila heliaca ) in Kazakhstan. Specifically, we asked whether the most appropriate data were being collected to understand system state and population dynamics. Our models were parameterized with data collected over the course of 25 years of study of this population. We used the models to conduct simulation experiments to evaluate relationships between monitored or potentially monitored parameters and the demographic variables of interest—population size ( N ) and population growth (λ). Static analyses showed that traditional territory-based monitoring was a poor indicator of eagle population size and growth and that monitoring survivorship would provide more information about these parameters. Nevertheless, these same traditionally monitored territory-based parameters had greater power to detect long-term changes in population size than did survivorship or population structure. Regardless of the taxa considered, threats can have immediate impacts on population size and growth or longer-term impacts on population dynamics. Prudently designed monitoring programs for any species will detect the demographic effects of both types of threats.     

Disease prevention and resistance in social insects: modeling the survival consequences of immunity,hygienic behavior,and colony organization

Understanding the origin of disease resistance in social insects is difficult due to the lack of well-established phylogenies of presocial and eusocial species and the absence of extant basal and intermediate forms. Moreover, comprehensive accounts of infection-control traits in social insect lineages are not available. Therefore, to explore the evolution of pathogen control in social insects we used cellular automata models to analyze the efficacy of immunity and nest hygiene, which we assumed were basal traits, and allogrooming, which likely followed the transition to eusociality, and their interactions with colony demography and patterns of worker spatial distribution. Models showed that nest hygiene provided an immediate survival benefit and that immunity lowered overall disease susceptibility under both constant and periodic exposure scenarios. Allogrooming increased survivorship in chronically challenged colonies but also increased pathogen transmission rates under conditions of periodic exposure. Colonies having demographies biased towards young or old individuals had slightly higher mortality than those with heterogeneous demographies. The distribution of older individuals relative to the nest center had no significant effect on susceptibility and provided only a minor survival advantage. Models indicated that nest hygiene and immunity function on different temporal scales and can interact with demography to lower disease risks. Our results suggest how infection control systems in social insects could have been built upon the inducible immune defenses and nest hygienic behaviors of solitary and presocial ancestors and served as important preadaptations to manage disease exposure and transmission in colonies of eusocial species.     

Microcosm studies of microbial degradation in a coal tar distillate plume

Investigation of a groundwater plume containing up to 24 g l(-1) phenolic compounds suggested that over a period of nearly 50 years, little degradation had occurred despite the presence of a microbial community and electron acceptors within the core of the plume. In order to study the effect of contaminant concentration on degradation behaviour, laboratory microcosm experiments were performed under aerobic and anaerobic conditions at four different concentrations obtained by diluting contaminated with uncontaminated groundwater. The microcosms contained groundwater with total phenols at ca. 200, 250, 660 and 5000 mg l(-1), and aquifer sediment that had been acclimatised within the plume for several months. The microcosms were operated for a period of 390-400 days along with sterile controls to ascertain whether degradation was microbially mediated or abiotic. Under aerobic conditions, degradation only occurred at concentrations up to 660 mg l(-1) total phenols. At phenol concentrations below 250 mg l(-1) a benzoquinone intermediate, thought to originate from the degradation of 2,5-dimethylphenol, was isolated and identified. This suggested an unusual degradative pathway for this compound; its aerobic degradation more commonly proceeding via catecholic intermediates. Under anaerobic conditions, degradation only occurred in the most dilute microcosm (total phenols 195 mg l(-1)) with a loss of p-cresol accompanied by a nonstoichiometric decrease in nitrate and sulphate. By inference, iron(III) from the sediment may also have been used as a terminal electron acceptor, in which case the amount of biologically available iron released was calculated as 1.07 mg Fe(III)/g of sediment. The study shows that natural attenuation is likely to be stimulated by dilution of the plume.     

Organic contaminants and trace metals in flounder liver and sediment from the Amsterdam and Rotterdam harbours and off the Dutch coast

Organic contaminants [polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs), nonylphenols], organotin compounds and trace metals (cadmium, chromium, mercury and zinc) were determined in flounder (Platichthys flesus) liver and sediment from the Amsterdam harbour (North Sea Canal) and Rotterdam harbour (Euromonding) and off the Dutch coast between the Amsterdam and Rotterdam harbour mouths in order to assess the level of contamination in these harbours and to study contamination gradients.     

Biosurfactant-enhanced solubilization of NAPL mixtures

Remediation of nonaqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) by conventional pump-and-treat methods (i.e., water flushing) is generally considered to be ineffective due to low water solubilities of NAPLs and to mass-transfer constraints. Chemical flushing techniques, such as surfactant flushing, can greatly improve NAPL remediation primarily by increasing the apparent solubility of NAPL contaminants. NAPLs at hazardous waste sites are often complex mixtures. However, the equilibrium and nonequilibrium mass-transfer characteristics between NAPL mixtures and aqueous surfactant solutions are not well understood. This research investigates the equilibrium solubilization behavior of two- and three-component NAPL mixtures (containing akylbenzenes) in biosurfactant solutions. NAPL solubilization is found to be ideal in water (i.e., obeys Raoult's Law), while solubilization in biosurfactant solutions was observed to be nonideal. Specifically, the relatively hydrophobic compounds in the mixture experienced solubility enhancements that were greater than those predicted by ideal enhanced solubilization theory, while the solubility enhancements for the relatively hydrophilic compounds were less than predicted. The degree of nonideality is shown to be a nonlinear function of the NAPL-phase mole fraction. Empirical relationships based on the NAPL-phase mole fraction and/or micelle-aqueous partition coefficients measured in single-component NAPL systems are developed to estimate values for the multicomponent partition coefficients. Empirical relationships that incorporate both the NAPL-phase mole fraction and single-component partition coefficients yield much improved estimates for the multicomponent partition coefficient.     

IMPROVED RIVER BASIN UTILIZATION THROUGH SYSTEMS ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT. Theoretical and practical results are summarized for a study to determine optimal water resource allocation in a proposed water conservancy district. The area of this district, which covers several river basins, contains a large number of existing and proposed facilities such as reservoirs and diversions. The operation of all of these facilities was to be determined along with the sizing of the proposed facilities in order to optimize given objective functions. Related efforts in optimal river basin utilization were surveyed, and linear programming was selected as an expedient optimization technique. The problem is formulated by identifying time stages which together constitute a repetitive cycle such as a year. With these stages, it is possible to associate operational and capacity variables with network components, which are branches and nodes. Objective functions are assembled for the component variables. Constraint equations are written in terms of the variables to reflect network nodal continuity, capacity restrictions, and adjudications such as water rights. A numerical example is considered in which the existing and proposed facilities are aggregated to produce a small, tractable number of facilities. This paper examines the example results and suggests future improvements for models of this type.     

Evolution of environmental impact assessment as applied to watershed modification projects in Canada

This article reviews the application of environmental impact assessment (EIA) procedures and practices to three watershed modification projects situaled in western Canada. These ventures were justified for accelerating regional economic development, and cover the period during which public concerns for protecting the environment rapidly made their way into the national political agenda. An historical account and analysis of the situation, therefore, seems desirable in order to understand the development of EIA processes, practices, and methodologies since the start of construction of the first project in 1961. This study concludes that there has been good progress in predicting and evaluating environmental and related social impacts of watershed modification proposals. However, a number of obstacles need to be overcome before EIA can firmly establish itself as an effective planning tool. These difficulties include jurisdictional confusions and conflicts, division of authority and responsibility in designing and implementing appropriate mitigative and monitoring measures, lack of tested EIA methodologies, and limited availability of qualified human resources. A number of conclusions and suggestions are offered so that future watershed modification proposals may be planned and implemented in a more environmentally sustainable fashion. These include: (1) EIA processes must be completed before irrevocable decisions are made. (2) Any major intrusion into a watershed is likely to impact on some major components of the ecosystem(s). (3) Mitigation costs must form part of the benefit-cost analysis of any project proposal. (4) Interjurisdictional cooperation is imperative where watersheds cross political boundaries. (5) The EIA process is a public process, hence public concerns must be dealt with fairly. (6) The role of science in the EIA process must be at arms length from project proponents and regulators, and allowed to function in the interest of the protection of the environment and public health and safety. The views expressed here are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect those of FEARO and/or other government agencies and officials involved in the review of these projects.     

Offspring sex ratio response to host size in the parasitoid wasp Spalangia endius

The host size model, an adaptive model for maternal manipulation of offspring sex ratio, was examined for the parasitoid wasp Spalangia endius. In a Florida strain, as the model predicts, daughters emerged from larger hosts than sons, but only when mothers received both small and large hosts simultaneously. The pattern appeared to result from the mother's ovipositional choice and not from differential mortality of the sexes during development. If sex ratio manipulation is adaptive in the Florida strain, it appears to be through a benefit to daughters of developing on large hosts rather than through a benefit to sons of developing on small hosts. Both female and male parasitoids were larger when they developed on larger hosts. For females, developing on a larger host (1) increased offspring production, except for the largest hosts, (2) increased longevity, (3) lengthened development, and (4) had no effect on wing loading. For males, development on a larger host had no effect on any measure of male fitness – mating success, longevity, development duration, or wing loading. In contrast, a strain from India showed no difference in the size of hosts from which daughters versus sons emerged, although both female and male parasitoids were larger when they developed on larger hosts. These results together with previous studies of Spalangia reveal no consistent connection between host-size-dependent sex ratio and host-size-dependent parasitoid size among strains of S. endius or among species of Spalangia. Received: 28 October 1998 / Received in revised form: 20 May 1999 / Accepted: 30 May 1999     

Longevity of subitaneous and diapause eggs of Centropages hamatus (Copepoda: Calanoida) from the northern Gulf of Mexico

Copepod resting eggs are abundant in the seabed of many bays and estuaries where they provide a potential source of recruits for growth of planktonic populations. In the northeastern Gulf of Mexico the copepod Centropages hamatus (Lillejeborg) occurs in the water column only during the late fall, winter and early spring. The species produces subitaneous and diapause eggs, and both egg types have been found in the seabed. We determined the longevity of these two egg types to ascertain their potential for contributing to the growth of the planktonic population and for sustaining a persistent egg bank. Eggs were collected from females and incubated in the laboratory under temperature and oxygen conditions chosen to simulate field conditions. The diapause eggs were also exposed to sulfide. The total hatching success of subitaneous eggs in two experiments declined from highs of 78 and 97% to zero after 60 and 90 d of exposure to anoxia. The total hatching success of diapause eggs that were exposed to anoxia for 90 d however was typically greater than 80%. Some diapause eggs hatched after being incubated under anoxia for 437 d. Diapause eggs survived longer at ambient field temperatures when incubated under anoxia (437 d) compared to normoxia (118 d). Exposure to sulfide did not result in greater mortality of diapause eggs compared to anoxia alone. Diapause eggs that were incubated at ambient field temperatures did not hatch when exposed to normoxia until the temperature dropped to <20 °C. The results of this study suggest that C.␣hamatus sustain a short-term reserve of subitaneous eggs in the seabed that provides recruits for the current year's population. The greater longevity of diapause eggs suggests that they sustain the seasonal reappearance of the species year after year in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, the contribution of diapause eggs of C. hamatus from the Gulf of Mexico to a persistent egg bank is questionable since hatching ceased after 437 d. Received: 30 July 1997 / Accepted: 18 January 1998