Uncertainty management in integrated assessment modeling: towards a pluralistic approach

Integrated Assessment (IA) is an evolving research community that aims to address complex societal issues through an interdisciplinary process. The most-widely used method in Integrated Assessment is modeling. The state of the art in Integrated Assessment modeling is described in this paper in terms of history, general features, classes of models, and in terms of the strengths and weaknesses, and the dilemmasand challenges modelers face. One of the key challenges is the issue of uncertainty management. The paper outlines the sources and types of uncertainty modelers are confronted with. It then discusses how uncertainties are currently managed inIntegrated Assessment modeling, on which evaluation it is argued that complementary methods are needed that allow for pluralistic uncertainty management. The paperfinalises with discussing pluralistic concepts and approaches that are currently explored in the IA community and that seem promising in view of the challenge to incorporate explicitly more than one hidden perspective in models.     

Monitoring nutrient transport in large rivers

The problem of estimating nutrient transport in large rivers and the uncertainty of such load estimates was studied both empirically and theoretically. In the empirical part of the study, time series of data from the Rhine, Meuse, Vistula and Oder Rivers were examined. The results of this data analysis justify the use of linear interpolation to estimate concentrations prevailing between sampling occasions. A special study of the spatial variation of concentrations within different cross-sections of the Vistula river showed that such variation can contribute substantially to the uncertainty of load estimates. In general, however, sampling at one point in the cross-section did not result in biased load estimates. In the theoretical part of the study, simple ARMA (autoregressive-moving average) models were used to derive generally applicable formulas for the expected mean square error of load estimates based on serially dependent concentration data. These formulas were then used to estimate the uncertainty of calculated nutrient loads in the Rhine and the Vistula, respectively.     

Extended acid digestion for inactivation of fecal coliforms.

The objective of this research was to establish a correlation between inactivation of fecal coliforms caused by organic acids in their unionized form in batch acid digesters and semicontinuously fed acid digesters at both mesophilic (38 degrees C) and low-mesophilic (24 degrees C) temperatures. Batch acid digesters achieved a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Class A level of fecal coliforms within 6 to 7 days of digestion at both temperatures. Semicontinuously fed, staged, acid-digestion systems achieved Class A standards on average only at mesophilic temperature at a solids retention time of 11 days. Systems operated at low-mesophilic temperatures did not achieve Class A standards.     

The anthropogenic contribution to the organic load of the Lippe River (Germany). Part I: Qualitative characterisation of low-molecular weight organic compounds

GC/MS-screening analyses of water samples from the Lippe River, Germany, revealed the presence of a wide spectrum of low-molecular weight organic compounds ranging from non-polar constituents like aliphatic hydrocarbons to polar constituents like n-carboxylic acids and phenols. Most of the identified compounds could be attributed to anthropogenic input and are used as plasticizers, flame retardants, pharmaceutical drugs or fragrances. Some of them had rarely been noticed as organic pollutants of aquatic environments before. These are, among others, 9-methylacridine, the plasticizer 2,2,4-trimethyl-1,3-pentandioldiisobutyrate (TXIB), the surfactant 2,4,7,9-tetramethyl-5-decyne-4,7-diol (TMDD), triphenylphosphinoxide and the flame retardant tris(chloropropyl)phosphate. On the other hand, most of the identified trialkyl phosphates, pharmaceutical drugs and synthetic fragrances have been reported in surface waters by several authors so far. Input pathways of the detected compounds were traced back by sampling various input sources of organic matter such as discharges of wastewater and Lippe River tributaries. Several contaminants were ubiquitous in Lippe River water and also occurred in sewage effluent from a municipal sewage treatment plant and in samples from the tributaries. This observation suggests that they are typical sewage derived contaminants and have the potential to be used as anthropogenic molecular markers.     

Effect of cold-temperature shock on nitrification.

Nitrification is known as the most temperature-sensitive step among the biological processes in wastewater treatment. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of temperature on nitrification, in the case of a sharp decrease of temperature, and to compare this effect with that of a gradual temperature decrease. It was found that a sudden temperature decrease affected nitrification much more than predicted. The immediate decrease of temperature by 10 degrees C led to a 20% larger decrease of specific nitrification rate than predicted by the temperature correction factor of 1.072. The change of nitrification rate resulting from a gradual temperature decrease was modeled correctly with the current default temperature correction factor of 1.072. It was concluded that the correction factor actually can be applied to a gradual temperature-change situation; however, in the case of a sudden temperature decrease, measures need to be taken to avoid nitrifier washout.     

Insect oostatic peptide: absence of effect on mice ovaries

An analogue of insect oostatic peptide, the pentapeptide H-Tyr-Asp-Pro-Ala-Pro-OH (H-YDPAP-OH), was administered to female mice and its effects on reproduction and development of the ovaries were studied. Up to 0.5 mg of the peptide per mice (25 g b.w.) injected intraperitoneally did not change the rate of pregnancy, number of offsprings and histological findings in ovaries and uterus in comparison to saline treated controls.     

Human population intake fractions and environmental fate factors of toxic pollutants in life cycle impact assessment

The present paper outlines an update of the fate and exposure part of the fate, exposure and effects model USES-LCA. The new fate and exposure module of USES-LCA was applied to calculate human population intake fractions and fate factors of the freshwater, marine and terrestrial environment for 3393 substances, including neutral organics, dissociating organics and inorganics, emitted to 7 different emission compartments. The human population intake fraction is on average 10(-5)-10(-8) for organics and 10(-3)-10(-4) for inorganics, depending on the emission compartment considered. Chemical-specific human population intake fractions can be 1-2.7 orders of magnitude higher or lower compared to the typical estimates. For inorganics, the human population intake fractions highly depend on the assumption that exposure via food products can be modelled with constant bioconcentration factors. The environmental fate factor is on average 10(-11)-10(-18) days m(-3) for organics and 10(-10)-10(-12) days m(-3) for inorganics, depending on the receiving environment and the emission compartment considered. Chemical-specific environmental fate factors can be 1-8 orders of magnitude higher or lower compared to the typical estimates. The largest differences between the new and old version of USES-LCA are found for emissions to air and soil. This is caused by a significant change in the structure of the air and soil compartments in the new version of USES-LCA, i.e. the distinction between rural and urban air, including rain-no rain conditions and including soil depth dependent intermedia transport.     

Field intercomparison of throughfall measurements performed within the framework of the Pan European intensive monitoring program of EU/ICP Forest

A 6-month field intercomparison study on throughfall measurements was performed at Speulder forest near the west coast in The Netherlands. Twenty throughfall sampling systems were evaluated on accuracy, sampling strategy and performance under field conditions. Throughfall fluxes of NO3-, K+ and Kjeldahl-N generally could be determined with a larger accuracy than fluxes of SO4(2-), NH4+, Na+, Cl-, Mg2+, Ca2+, and alkalinity. Throughfall fluxes of H+ generally had the lowest accuracy. Only 20% of the sampling systems differed more than 20% from the best estimate, whereas 45% of the systems stayed within a 10% range from the best estimate. The difference from the best estimate was mainly caused by aspects related to sampling strategy, like, for example, collecting area, sampler placement. The inaccuracy induced by the sampling system appeared to be much larger than that resulting from the analysis of the samples by different laboratory as determined by ring-tests. The field intercomparison described in this article gave a good insight in the different aspects contributing to the overall accuracy of the measurements. However, performing a future field intercomparison is recommended for throughfall and stemflow in order to also take in account other aspects that might influence the performance of the different measurement systems (e.g. tree species, climate zone, summer/winter period).     

Assessment of municipal waste compost as a daily cover material for odour control at landfill sites

The ability of municipal waste compost as a daily cover material to reduce the odorous emissions associated with landfill surfaces was investigated. Trials were carried out using landfill gas, a certified sulphurous gas mix and ambient air as a control. Odorous gas was passed through portable test column filled with compost at different densities (590 kg/m3 and 740 kg/m3). Gas samples were taken from the inlet, outlet and at varying column depths and examined using a combination of sensory analysis (olfactometry) and a novel analytical method (Transportable Selected Ion Flow Tube--TSIFT). Results for the trials using landfill gas showed a 69% odour reduction (OU/m3) through the column for compost with a bulk density of 590 kg/m3, and a reduction of 97% using compost with a bulk density of 740 kg/m3. TSIFT analysis showed an overall decrease in the concentration of terpenes, and sulphurous compounds in the outlet gas from the column for both bulk densities. No significant trend could be identified for the concentrations at different depths within the column. Results show the ability of compost to reduce landfill odours under differing conditions. The inconclusive data provided by TSIFT analysis may be due to the analysis of compounds that are not contributing to odour, and thus highlights the potential for synergetic effects and the importance of sensory measurement when examining odorous emissions.     

Formation and biodegradation of toluene in the anaerobic sludge digestion process.

The formation of toluene in municipal anaerobic primary and secondary sludge digestion processes was investigated. Experiments were carried out in a large laboratory-scale reactor using sludge from a primary settling tank of a municipal treatment plant. It was found that toluene was produced in the supernatant in relatively large concentrations for almost all cases tested. The concentration of toluene varied and was found to depend on the stage of the anaerobic process. During the acidity phase, which is the first stage of anaerobic digestion, an increase of toluene concentration was observed, while in the transition period, from the acidity phase to methanogenesis, the toluene concentration decreased. It was concluded that biosynthesis of toluene occurs in the acidogenic phase, while biodegradation was prevalent in the methanogenic stage. Depending on the type of experiments, an increase of toluene from a base value of approximately 200 microg/L up to 20,000 and 42,000 microg/L was measured in the first stage of anaerobic digestion. In the subsequent methane-production stage of digestion, the estimated rate of toluene decrease (biodegradation) varied from 400 to 900 microg/L-d.