Implications of a changing climate on food security and smallholders’ livelihoods in Bogotá, Colombia

Small farmers who supply the city of Bogotá with food are facing many challenges that are jeopardizing their livelihoods and by extension, the food security of Colombia’s capital. We expect future changes in climatic conditions to exacerbate the plight of the small farmers and this is expected to compromise Bogota’s food security even further. This paper specifically seeks to assess the impact of climate change (CC) on the livelihoods of smallholders who supply Bogota with most of its food. In our multidisciplinary methodology, we translated the exposure to CC into direct impact on crops and assessed sensitivity and adaptive capacity using the sustainable rural livelihoods framework. The results show that rainfall (by average of 100 mm) and temperature (by average of 2.1 °C) will increase over the study area, while the future climate suitability of the most important crops such as mango (Mangifera indica), papaya (Carica papaya), corn (Zea mays) and plantain (Musa balbisiana) shows a decrease of 19 % to 47 % climate suitability by the year 2050. The assessment of sensitivity and adaptive capacity demonstrates that farmers participating in a farmers’ market, initiated by several local and international non-governmental organizations (NGOs), are less vulnerable to CC than farmers who sell through intermediaries. Those farmers selling directly to consumers in the farmers’ market have a higher adaptive capacity (3 on a scale of 3) in social and financial capital than those selling to intermediaries with less adaptive capacity (1 on a scale of 3). In light of the reduction in overall climatic suitability of some of the major crops and the change of geographic location of suitability for others, there are likely to be serious threats for Bogotá’s food security, the ecological landscape around the city, and farmers’ livelihoods. We further conclude that unless proper adaptation measures are implemented, the geographical shift in climate suitability may also force farmers to shift their crops to higher elevations including remaining forests and páramos (the Colombian alpine tundra ecosystems), which may be threatened in the near future.     

Effects of life‐history requirements on the distribution of a threatened reptile

Survival and reproduction are the two primary life‐history traits essential for species’ persistence; however, the environmental conditions that support each of these traits may not be the same. Despite this, reproductive requirements are seldom considered when estimating species’ potential distributions. We sought to examine potentially limiting environmental factors influencing the distribution of an oviparous reptile of conservation concern with respect to the species’ survival and reproduction and to assess the implications of the species’ predicted climatic constraints on current conservation practices. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the probability of environmental suitability for the alligator snapping turtle (Macrochelys temminckii). We built an annual climate model to examine survival and a nesting climate model to examine reproduction. We combined incubation temperature requirements, products of modeled soil temperature data, and our estimated distributions to determine whether embryonic development constrained the northern distribution of the species. Low annual precipitation constrained the western distribution of alligator snapping turtles, whereas the northern distribution was constrained by thermal requirements during embryonic development. Only a portion of the geographic range predicted to have a high probability of suitability for alligator snapping turtle survival was estimated to be capable of supporting successful embryonic development. Historic occurrence records suggest adult alligator snapping turtles can survive in regions with colder climes than those associated with consistent and successful production of offspring. Estimated egg‐incubation requirements indicated that current reintroductions at the northern edge of the species’ range are within reproductively viable environmental conditions. Our results highlight the importance of considering survival and reproduction when estimating species’ ecological niches, implicating conservation plans, and benefits of incorporating physiological data when evaluating species’ distributions.     

Increased nitrogen availability influences predator–prey interactions by altering host-plant quality

Little is known about how plant nutritional and defensive qualities interact to influence predator–prey interactions. To address this need, we provided the neo-tropical milkweed, Asclepias curassavica, with two levels of nitrogen availability and examined how altered host-plant quality influenced the responses of a specialist aphid, Aphis nerii, and a coccinellid predator, Harmonia axyridis. Aphis nerii uses A. curassavica for multiple resources, including nutrition and sequestration of cardenolides for defense against natural enemies. Increased nitrogen availability improved A. curassavica quality by decreasing carbon-to-nitrogen (C:N) ratios and cardenolide concentrations, resulting in A. nerii that also had lower C:N ratios and cardenolide concentrations. Aphis nerii population growth was higher on plants with high nitrogen availability, compared with aphids on plants with low nitrogen availability. In no-choice feeding trials, Harmonia axyridis consumed more high C:N ratio aphids, suggesting a potential compensatory response to reduced aphid nutritional quality. Additionally, H. axyridis were able to consume more low-quality aphids at the expense of increasing exposure to increased cardenolide concentrations, suggesting that interactions between H. axyridis and A. nerii may be strongly influenced by prey nutritional quality. This work highlights the need to consider how variation in plant quality influences herbivore nutritional and defensive quality when examining mechanisms that influence predator–prey interactions.     

Combination of Biological and Habitat Indices for Assessment of Idaho Streams

States and tribes are encouraged to use multiple biological assemblages in assessment of water bodies. An assessment index for each assemblage provides information on aspects of the aquatic resource that may be unique in terms of stressor sensitivity, stressor type, or ecological scale. However, assessment results relative to impairment thresholds can disagree among indices for an individual water body, leading to uncertain overall water‐body assessments. We explored options for combining stream indices for macroinvertebrates, fish, and habitat in ways that would yield the most consistent and sensitive results relative to established disturbance categories. Methods varied in the scoring or rating scales used to standardize each index value, the thresholds used to define impairment of aquatic life uses, and the ways of synthesizing multiple indices. The index compositing method that scores each index on a continuous scale and averages the scores after standardizing had superior accuracy, sensitivity, and precision. In addition, using the 25th quantile of reference sites instead of the 10th quantile resulted in a more balanced error rate among reference and degraded site categories.     

Specific Yield Functions for Estimating Evapotranspiration from Diurnal Surface Water Cycles

The White method has been routinely used to estimate evapotranspiration using diurnal variations in groundwater levels. Applications to surface water systems (e.g., wetlands) are less common. For applications to surface water systems, a stage‐dependent specific yield function must be defined. This is especially important for small wetlands formed in topographic depressions with bowl shaped bathymetries. Existing formulations of the specific yield function include weighting factors that impact the relative importance of the soil and open water specific yields on the composite value. Three formulations of the specific yield function from the literature were compared and found to produce varied results. Based on a comparison with empirical estimates of specific yield based on observed ratios of net precipitation to water level rise, one of the existing formulations is generalized and recommended for general use. The recommended function is dependent on wetland bathymetry, magnitude of the diurnal fluctuation, spatial extent of the equilibration area, and soil‐specific yield. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the relative importance of these variables. The specific yield function is independent of wetland size and is strongly dependent on the basin profile coefficient (p), an indication of wetland shape. For most natural wetlands, bathymetry strongly influences specific yield.     

Reduced surface runoff losses of metolachlor in narrow-row compared to wide-row soybean

Cultural management practices that reduce the off-site transport of herbicides applied to row crops are needed to protect surface water quality. A soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] field study was conducted near Stoneville, MS on Sharkey clay to evaluate row spacing (50 cm vs. 100 cm) effects on metolachlor [2-chloro-N-(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)-N-(methoxy-1-methylethyl) acetamide] transport. One day after the foliar application of metolachlor to 2.03 m wide by 2.43 m long plots, 60 mm h(-1) of simulated rainfall was applied until 25 min of runoff was generated per plot. The calculated mass of metolachlor intercepted by the soybean foliage was greater in narrow-row than wide-row soybean, 0.39 kg ha(-1) vs. 0.23 kg ha(-1), respectively. Field and laboratory studies indicated that less than 2% of the metolachlor intercepted by the soybean foliage was available for foliar wash-off 1 d after application. Antecedent soil water content at the start of the simulations was lower in narrow-row soybean. In turn, there was a 1.7-fold greater time to runoff on narrow-row plots. The greater time to runoff likely contributed to lower metolachlor concentration in runoff from narrow-row plots. Cumulative metolachlor losses were significantly greater in wide-row than narrow-row soybean, 3.7% vs. 2.2%, respectively. Findings indicate that narrow-row planting systems may reduce metolachlor runoff following a post-emergence application.     

Accumulation of weathered polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by plant and earthworm species

Experiments were conducted to assess the bioavailability of polyclycic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soil from a Manufactured Gas Plant site. Three plant species were cultivated for four consecutive growing cycles (28 days each) in soil contaminated with 36.3 microg/g total PAH. During the first growth period, Cucurbita pepo ssp. pepo (zucchini) tissues contained significantly greater quantities of PAHs than did Cucumis sativus (cucumber) and Cucurbita pepo ssp. ovifera (squash). During the first growth cycle, zucchini plants accumulated up to 5.47 times more total PAH than did the other plants, including up to three orders of magnitude greater levels of the six ring PAHs. Over growth cycles 2-4, PAH accumulation by zucchini decreased by 85%, whereas the uptake of the contaminants by cucumber and squash remained relatively constant. Over all four growth cycles, the removal of PAHs by zucchini was still twice that of the other species. Two earthworm species accumulated significantly different amounts of PAH from the soil; Eisenia foetida and Lumbricus terrestris contained 0.204 and 0.084 microg/g total PAH, respectively, but neither species accumulated measurable quantities 5 or 6 ring PAHs. Lastly, in abiotic desorption experiments with an aqueous phase of synthetically prepared organic acid solutions, the release of 3 and 4 ring PAHs from soil was unaffected by the treatments but the desorption of 5-6 ring constituents was increased by up to two orders of magnitude. The data show that not only is the accumulation of weathered PAHs species-specific but also that the bioavailability of individual PAH constituents is highly variable.     

Effects of El Niño on distribution and reproductive performance of Black Brant

Climate in low-latitude wintering areas may influence temperate and high-latitude breeding populations of birds, but demonstrations of such relationships have been rare because of difficulties in linking wintering with breeding populations. We used long-term aerial surveys in Mexican wintering areas and breeding areas in Alaska, USA, to assess numbers of Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans; hereafter brant) on their principal wintering and breeding area in El Ni?o and non-El Ni?o years. We used Pollock's robust design to directly estimate probability of breeding and apparent annual survival of individually marked brant at the Tutakoke River (TR) colony, Alaska, in each year between 1988 and 2001. Fewer brant wintered in Mexico during every El Ni?o event since 1965. Fewer brant were observed on the principal breeding area following each El Ni?o since surveys began in 1985. Probability of breeding was negatively related to January sea surface temperature along the subtropical coast of North America during the preceding winter. Between 23% (five-year-olds or older) and 30% (three-year-olds) fewer brant nested in 1998 following the strong El Ni?o event in the winter of 1997-1998 than in non-El Ni?o years. This finding is consistent with life history theory, which predicts that longer-lived species preserve adult survival at the expense of reproduction. Oceanographic conditions off Baja California, apparently by their effect on Zostera marina (eelgrass), strongly influence winter distribution of brant geese and their reproduction (but not survival), which in turn affects ecosystem dynamics in Alaska.