发展与气候变化

气候变化不仅是一个影响世界各国的全球性问题,它还对许多中低收入国家的发展进程构成颠覆甚至倒退的威胁.在支持发展中国家经济增长重点的同时,应对减缓和适应气候变化的双重挑战,是国际社会面临的一项重大考验.     

Brazil's Electric Power Choices and Their Corresponding Carbon Emissions Implications

This study analyzes the options for meeting power demand in the Brazilianpower sector through the year 2015. Three policy cases are constructedto test economic and environmental policy measures against a baseline:advanced technologies scenario, environmental control scenario and carbon(C) elimination scenario. Least-cost modeling simulated these scenarios throughchanges in emissions fees and caps, costs for advanced technologies,demand side efficiency, and clean energy supplies. Results show that, in theabsence of alternative policies, new additions to Brazil's electric powersector will shift rapidly from hydroelectricity to combined-cycle natural gasplants. When the cost of environmental impacts are incorporated in theprice of power, the least-cost mix of electric power generation technologycould change in other ways. In all scenarios, energy efficiency andcogeneration play an important role in the least-cost power solution. Savingelectricity through increased efficiency offsets the needs for new supply andhas enormous potential in Brazil's industrial sector. Efficiency also reducesthe environmental burden associated with electricity production andtransmission, without compromising the quality of the services demandedby end users. Interesting enough, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions will remainrelatively low under almost every conceivable scenario.     

Systemic retention of ingested cantharidin by frogs

Summary Frogs(Rana pipiens) fed on blister beetles (Meloidae) or cantharidin, retain cantharidin systemically. After cessation of feeding, they void the compound relatively quickly. Systemic cantharidin does not protect frogs against ectoparasitic feeding by leeches(Hirudo medicinalis) or predation by snakes(Nerodia sipedon). As suggested by our data, and from reports in the early literature, ingestion of cantharidin-containing frogs can pose a health threat to humans.Paper no. 95 of the seriesDefense Mechanisms of Arthropods; no. 94 is LaMunyon & Eisner, Psyche (in press)     

Optimal taxation: Timber and externalities

The paper presents a model of the relationship between timber taxation and externalities. Optimal pigouvian taxation formulas are derived within this framework for common taxes. A simulation model of Douglas fir is used to estimate the size and direction of these effects. The results show that taxation policy can have a marked impact on the production of externalities, depending on tree species and land productivity.     

Regional extinction of a conspicuous dorid nudibranch (Mollusca: Gastropoda) in California

Felimare californiensis (=Hypselodoris californiensis) was once common throughout the Southern California Bight (SCB) and California Channel Islands. This well-known shallow-water nudibranch, which specializes on dysideid sponges, has persisted for decades in Mexico, but in California disappeared from its entire range by 1984. Since reappearing in 2003, it has been found only at Santa Catalina Island, plus sightings of single individuals in 2011 at Santa Cruz Island and San Diego. The decline of F. californiensis in California was documented using published historical records, museum collections, unpublished field accounts, and images posted online. The loss of this emblematic species is unique among Californian nudibranchs, including (1) its congener Felimare porterae (=Mexichromis porterae), with which it appears to overlap in diet, and (2) opisthobranch species with similar historical geographic ranges and mode of development. The decline in F. californiensis is not predicted by warming trends and climate variation over the past 40 years, including the strong El Niño events of 1983 and 1998. Coastal pollution from the large human population in southern California may have impacted Dysidea amblia, the primary reported prey of F. californiensis. Historical overcollecting of the nudibranch and habitat loss through the development of major ports likely also contributed to its decline. Sightings since 2003 are consistent with a nascent recovery, as elements of water quality have improved in the SCB in recent decades.     

Selection and application of a rainbow trout toxicity testing procedure for screening Sacramento River Watershed, California samples

A number of procedures have been developed to assess toxic effects on the early life stages of salmonid fish. In this study 13 rainbow trout embryo development relatively short-term (7 to 90 day) procedures were reviewed. Three 7-day methods from the published literature and three modifications developed at AQUA-Science (A-S) were evaluated in the laboratory. Based on that evaluation, A-S methods were selected for screening surface water samples (A-S 1) collected in the Sacramento River watershed (California) and for conducting toxicity identification evaluations (TIE) to identify cause(s) of toxicity. Test control performance, test sensitivity, and reference toxicant response variability in the A-S 1 were superior to those in commonly used freshwater toxicity testing methods. The incidence of Sacramento River watershed samples resulting in a notable decrease in embryo development was very low. Of 260 samples screened only 16 (6%) resulted in statistically significant inhibition of embryo development. Of the 16 toxic samples, nine caused minimal (less than 20% abnormal development) and four marginal (less than 30%) toxicity. Samples collected from the agriculture-dominated Colusa Basin Drain and rangeland/forest-dominated Battle Creek on June 16, 2005 caused significant toxicity. TIE procedures indicated that cationic chemicals were the primary cause of toxicity. Metals analysis did not reveal concentrations sufficient to inhibit embryo development, so the most probable cause of toxicity in the two samples was cationic chemicals (perhaps surfactants?) or metals that were not included in the analytical screening.     

Small mammals as indicators of short-term and long-term disturbance in mixed prairie

Disturbance by military maneuvers over short and long time scales may have differential effects on grassland communities. We assessed small mammals as indicators of disturbance by military maneuvers in a mixed prairie in southern Oklahoma USA. We examined sites on two soil series, Foard and Lawton, across a gradient of disturbance intensity. A MANOVA showed that abundance of small mammals was associated (p = 0.03) with short-term (cover of vehicle tracks) disturbance but was not associated (p = 0.12) with long-term (loss of soil organic carbon, SOC) disturbance intensity. At the individual species level, Sigmodon hispidus (cotton rat) and Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) occurred across all levels of disturbance and in both soil types. Only P. maniculatus abundance changed (p < 0.01) with short-term disturbance and increased by about one individual per 5% of additional track-cover. Abundance of P. maniculatus also increased (p = 0.04) by about three individuals per 1% increase in soil carbon. Chaetodipus hispidus (hispid pocket mouse) and Reithrodontomys fulvescens (fulvous harvest mouse) only occurred in single soil types limiting their potential as more general indicators. Abundance of P. maniculatus was positively related to shifts in plant species composition and likely reflected changes in vegetation structure (i.e. litter depth) and forage availability resulting from disturbance. Peromyscus maniculatus may be a useful biological indicator of ecosystem change because it responded predictably to both long-term and short-term disturbance and, when coupled with soil, plant, and disturbance history variables, can reveal land condition trends.     

Economic and Spatial Impacts of an Existing Reserve Network on Future Augmentation

An optimization model for land reservation was developed that explicitly selects parcels in the most compact or contiguous manner possible while meeting habitat requirements and a budget limitation. The model was used to compare the effects of an existing reserve network on future parcel spatial locations and total cost. Using habitat and land value data from Josephine County, Oregon, it was found that a system of existing reserves created by various policies and overseen by different agencies can decrease future reserve compactness and contiguity, and increase total cost. This work suggests that coordinated planning can result in more efficient conservation efforts for less cost.     

Isotopic characterisation of lead deposited 1989-2001 at two upland Scottish locations

The isotopic composition of lead collected with grass samples taken over the period 1989-2001 from plots at two upland locations (Glensaugh in north east and Hartwood in central Scotland) has been determined using thermal ionisation mass spectrometry. Although marked reductions in lead concentrations in grass were observed at Glensaugh in the initial three years, subsequently concentrations have remained relatively constant (1-3 microg g(-1)) in all plots to the present day. The one exception was a roadside plot at Hartwood which showed a large reduction from 1.0 microg g(-1) in 1999 to 0.2 microg g(-1) in 2000 following the abolition of petrol lead in the UK at the beginning of 2000. The total concentrations at this plot were consistently lower than those found at plots away from road traffic but exposed to the prevailing wind direction. The 206Pb/207Pb ratio increased steadily at all the plots throughout the period of the study indicating the reducing influence of petrol lead but the changes were not as great as might be expected with the decrease in the use of leaded petrol. Assuming the collected lead had only two sources, petrol lead and a diffuse background "industrial" lead, the proportion of petrol lead was only in the range 17-69% for roadside samples and 0-39% in other samples. A substantial proportion of deposited lead, therefore, now has its origin other than in petrol. Mixing curves indicate that whereas the lead deposited at Glensaugh could be defined by only two end members, that at Hartwood needs more than two components in the mixture. The results also suggest that although petrol lead has been eliminated, traffic is still a source of lead and another source defined as "traffic lead" should be considered.     

Demonstrating Contaminant Degradation at an MGP Site With Metabolic Gas Flux and Radio Carbon Dating

Obtaining lines of evidence indicating that contamination in sediment environments is degrading and being transformed to less toxic forms is an important component of building support for a monitored natural recovery remedy for contaminated sediments. This project was a field demonstration of manufactured gas plant contaminant degradation in river sediments using metabolic gas flux and was performed in an urban area section of a river in northeastern Indiana. CO₂ sorbent traps were deployed to measure CO₂ flux from the river sediments. Sediment samples were collected and analyzed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations and for microbial community composition using molecular techniques. The results showed that the deployment was successful, measuring CO₂ flux at all sediment locations and demonstrating that microbial contaminant degrading activity was occurring in the sediments. Radio carbon dating showed a significant portion of the CO₂ being generated (approximately 19–27 percent) was the result of fossil fuel degradation. Molecular results showed that the microbial community consisted of phylotypes known to be associated with monocyclic aromatic and PAH degradation. ©2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.