Nonparametric mean estimation using partially ordered sets

In ranked-set sampling (RSS), the ranker must give a complete ranking of the units in each set. In this paper, we consider a modification of RSS that allows the ranker to declare ties. Our sampling method is simply to break the ties at random so that we obtain a standard ranked-set sample, but also to record the tie structure for use in estimation. We propose several different nonparametric mean estimators that incorporate the tie information, and we show that the best of these estimators is substantially more efficient than estimators that ignore the ties. As part of our comparison of estimators, we develop new results about models for ties in rankings. We also show that there are settings where, to achieve more efficient estimation, ties should be declared not just when the ranker is actually unsure about how units rank, but also when the ranker is sure about the ranking, but believes that the units are close.     

The effects of job-related stress on medical center employee communicator style

Founded on the assumption that communicator style is situationally and contextually influenced, this study investigates the effects of job-related stress on communicator style. It was specifically designed to measure the effects of job-related stress factors on employee communicator style within the context of a medical center organization. Three central research questions are posed: (1) what, if any, meaningful differences in communicator style can be found from general work conditions to stress-specific conditions; (2) do different stress conditions give rise to meaningful differences in communicator style; (3) what communicator style differences exist among three major medical center employee hierarchies in response to stress-specific situations. The results indicate that communicator style in the stress-specific sample was significantly more dominant, open, attentive but less dramatic and friendly. Multivariate analysis revealed that communicator style accounted for the greatest differences between employees who were experiencing stress due to being unprepared to perform their work role. All role-related stress variables were more powerfully discriminated by the communicator style variables than department/unit stress (stress at the work group level). Finally, communicator style variables provided statistically significant discrimination of three occupational groups: physicians, administrators/managers, and line employees. Physicians appeared to be more assertive and less supportive in their communication; administrators/managers were assertive but also supportive while line employees were both submissive and supportive in their communicator style. These three employee groups were also discriminated using the job-related stress variables. Although statistically significant findings were obtained, the discriminant functions were less powerful than the communicator style discriminant functions.     

FLOODPLAIN ANALYSIS,SIMPLIFIED VS. COMPLEX METHODS: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The accurate and reliable determination of floodplains, floodway boundaries, and flood water elevations are integral requirements of Flood Insurance Studies. These studies are intended to be used for determining the flood insurance rates. Therefore, the accuracy of the water surface profiles are important. To ensure the high degree of accuracy, the HUD Flood Insurance Administration has developed standards which must be met in the analysis of water surface profiles. A somewhat less accurate study is required for the preparation of Flood Emergency Plans. As part of the flood insurance studies of eight locations in the State of North Dakota, various flood hazard and floodplain information reports were reviewed. The hydrologic and hydraulic analyses, especially the computation of the 100-year water surface profiles, were completed using both simplified and complex hydraulic computation methods. Significant differences were found (1 to 3 feet) between the profiles computed by the SCS simplified method and those computed by HEC-2 computer program. However, the floodplain boundaries determined by both methods were found to be similar. Approximate methods are recommended for rapid determination of the floodplain, floodway boundaries, and inundation area mapping, while sophisticated computer programs (HEC-2) are recommended to be used for developing areas where the 100-year flood elevation has a significant impact on the cost of land development.     

Evaluation of management effectiveness of protected areas in the Volta Basin,Ghana: perspectives on the methodology for evaluation,protected area financing and community participation

ABSTRACT

Protected areas are widely recognized as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation. Most of the sites are, however, poorly managed as resource exploitation by fringe communities and low government funding, among other things, threaten their management effectiveness. We used the World Commission on Protected Areas framework for designing management effectiveness evaluation systems, with the Rapid Assessment and Prioritization of Protected Areas Management (RAPPAM) methodology as a tool, to evaluate six components of the management cycle at six sites in Ghana for their management effectiveness. We examined the robustness of RAPPAM as an evaluation tool in the African context. The results showed that most of the sites evaluated are vulnerable and exposed to various degrees of pressure and threats, including poverty in the nearby communities, adjacent land-use and encroachment. On RAPPAM, we noted that apart from inconsistencies in some of the assessment scores due to the biases associated with the self-assessment approach of the methodology, the management effectiveness framework places little emphasis on financing and community participation, though both play major roles in the management process. We proposed a modification of the framework within the African context, to address effectively the underlying courses of pressure and threats facing Ghana’s protected areas.     

Attitudes towards Recycling Household Waste in Exeter, Devon: quantitative and qualitative approaches

Recycling of household waste has become a very problematic area of British local government policy-making in which central government has set ambitious targets. Although local government can provide facilities for recycling, the attitudes of residents will be crucial if these targets are to be met. Accordingly, this paper outlines a framework for studying how households decide to recycle or not. The framework has been tested in Exeter in south-west England where a major survey found that respondents were much more likely to recycle if they had access to a structured kerbside recycling scheme. Many other factors influenced their attitudes and behaviours towards recycling, including their acceptance of the activity and their perception of the benefits and problems of recycling as a whole. The research uses the quantitative and qualitative data from the survey to demonstrate how individual attitudes can impact on recycling and how such research can yield useful data to enable policy-makers to adapt measures accordingly.     

Estimated chemical usage by manufacturers in Connecticut

Background

There is little available data on chemical use patterns by companies, with few federal requirements for reporting. This results in difficulties for targeting toxics for possible substitution, assisting employers with complying with newer international regulations, and decreased ability to estimate health and environmental impacts.

Methods

Massachusetts chemical use data for manufacturers required under the Toxics Use Reduction Act (TURA) was acquired, with corresponding information on industrial sector classification and employment levels by sector for both Massachusetts (MA) and Connecticut (CT). The MA chemical data was adjusted based on the ratio of employment levels by sector for CT compared to MA to give estimates of chemical usage by sector in CT.

Results

It was estimated that there was over 660 million pounds of chemicals used in CT, with over 300 million pounds each of carcinogens and reproductive hazards (categories overlap). The most common chemicals estimated to be used were styrene monomer (266 million lbs.), sodium hydroxide (60 million lbs.), and methanol (50 million lbs.). The industrial sub-sectors estimated with the highest chemical usage were chemical manufacturing, plastics and rubber products manufacturing, and fabricated metal product manufacturing.

Conclusion

There is extensive chemical use in CT manufacturing, but little direct information on actual use patterns.     

Analyzing animal movements using Brownian bridges

By studying animal movements, researchers can gain insight into many of the ecological characteristics and processes important for understanding population-level dynamics. We developed a Brownian bridge movement model (BBMM) for estimating the expected movement path of an animal, using discrete location data obtained at relatively short time intervals. The BBMM is based on the properties of a conditional random walk between successive pairs of locations, dependent on the time between locations, the distance between locations, and the Brownian motion variance that is related to the animal's mobility. We describe two critical developments that enable widespread use of the BBMM, including a derivation of the model when location data are measured with error and a maximum likelihood approach for estimating the Brownian motion variance. After the BBMM is fitted to location data, an estimate of the animal's probability of occurrence can be generated for an area during the time of observation. To illustrate potential applications, we provide three examples: estimating animal home ranges, estimating animal migration routes, and evaluating the influence of fine-scale resource selection on animal movement patterns.     

Optimizing best management practices to control anthropogenic sources of atmospheric phosphorus deposition to inland lakes

Excessive phosphorus loading to inland freshwater lakes around the globe has resulted in nuisance plant growth along the waterfronts, degraded habitat for cold-water fisheries, and impaired beaches, marinas, and waterfront property. The direct atmospheric deposition of phosphorus can be a significant contributing source to inland lakes. The atmospheric deposition monitoring program for Lake Simcoe, Ontario, indicates roughly 20% of the annual total phosphorus load (2010–2014 period) is due to direct atmospheric deposition (both wet and dry deposition) on the lake. This novel study presents a first-time application of the genetic algorithm (GA) methodology to optimize the application of best management practices (BMPs) related to agriculture and mobile sources to achieve atmospheric phosphorus reduction targets and restore the ecological health of the lake. The novel methodology takes into account the spatial distribution of the emission sources in the airshed, the complex atmospheric long-range transport and deposition processes, cost and efficiency of the popular management practices, and social constraints related to the adoption of BMPs. The optimization scenarios suggest that the optimal overall capital investment of approximately $2M, $4M, and $10M annually can achieve roughly 3, 4, and 5 tonnes reduction in atmospheric P load to the lake, respectively. The exponential trend indicates diminishing returns for the investment beyond roughly $3M per year and that focusing much of this investment in the upwind, nearshore area will significantly impact deposition to the lake. The optimization is based on a combination of the lowest cost, most beneficial and socially acceptable management practices that develops a science-informed promotion of implementation/BMP adoption strategy. The geospatial aspect to the optimization (i.e., proximity and location with respect to the lake) will help land managers to encourage the use of these targeted best practices in areas that will most benefit from the phosphorus reduction approach.

Implications: Excessive phosphorus loading to inland freshwater lakes around the globe has resulted in nuisance plant growth along the waterfronts, degraded habitat for cold water fisheries, and impaired beaches, marinas and waterfront property. This novel study presents a first-time application of the Genetic Algorithm methodology to optimize the application of best management practices related to agriculture and mobile sources to achieve atmospheric phosphorus reduction targets and restore the ecological health of the lake. The novel methodology takes into account the spatial distribution of the emission sources in the airshed, the complex atmospheric long-range transport and deposition processes, cost and efficiency of the popular management practices and social constraints related to the adoption of BMPs.     

Forecasting the Probability of Future Groundwater Levels Declining Below Specified Low Thresholds in the Conterminous U.S.

We present a logistic regression approach for forecasting the probability of future groundwater levels declining or maintaining below specific groundwater‐level thresholds. We tested our approach on 102 groundwater wells in different climatic regions and aquifers of the United States that are part of the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Climate Response Network. We evaluated the importance of current groundwater levels, precipitation, streamflow, seasonal variability, Palmer Drought Severity Index, and atmosphere/ocean indices for developing the logistic regression equations. Several diagnostics of model fit were used to evaluate the regression equations, including testing of autocorrelation of residuals, goodness‐of‐fit metrics, and bootstrap validation testing. The probabilistic predictions were most successful at wells with high persistence (low month‐to‐month variability) in their groundwater records and at wells where the groundwater level remained below the defined low threshold for sustained periods (generally three months or longer). The model fit was weakest at wells with strong seasonal variability in levels and with shorter duration low‐threshold events. We identified challenges in deriving probabilistic‐forecasting models and possible approaches for addressing those challenges.     

Adaptation of institutional arrangements to management of Northern Rangelands of Kenya

Northern Rangelands of Kenya have continued to grapple with management challenges largely due to a lack of understanding of the dynamics thereof. Eroding customary institutions and new institutional arrangements characterize the system suggesting that adaptation is taking place to cope with the change. It is imperative that these socio-ecosystems adjust to the disturbance without disintegrating into a different state that is controlled by a different set of processes to ensure sustainable rangeland management. To understand the nature of change, the study sought to evaluate institutional arrangements engaged in tackling growing socio-economic and ecological factors challenging development within the last decade. Three study sites namely Kinna, Makurian and Westgate, representing three types of institutional arrangements (elders only, group ranch committee and community conservancy board), were investigated. Key informants, focused group discussions and household survey methods were used to gather data. Data were managed and analysed using Ms Access, Ms Excel, social network analysis and SPSS. Findings indicate that more actors (internal and external) are engaging in management of social economic and ecological factors challenging development within the last decade. The co-management approach allows increased capacity to tackle these challenges and further presents more opportunities for a diversified livelihood, two key features of ecosystem resilience. Findings are useful as the Kenya government implements the National Land Policy that recognizes the need to restructure community land and its management.