A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling

In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability.     

Atmospheric BTEX concentrations in the vicinity of the crude oil refinery of the Baltic region

Among chemical industries, petroleum refineries have been identified as large emitters of a wide variety of pollutants. Benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX) form an important group of aromatic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) because of their role in the troposphere chemistry and the risk posed to human health. A very large crude oil refinery of the Baltic States (200,000 bbl/day) is situated in the northern, rural part of Lithuania, 10 km from the town of Ma?eikiai (Lithuania). The objectives of this study were: (1) to determine of atmospheric levels of BTEX in the region rural and urban parts at the vicinity of the crude oil refinery; and (2) to investigate the effect of meteorological parameters (wind speed, wind direction, temperature, pressure, humidity) on the concentrations measured. The averaged concentration of benzene varied from 2.12 ppbv in the rural areas to 2.75 ppbv in the urban areas where the traffic was determined to be a dominant source of BTEX emissions. Our study showed that concentration of benzene, as strictly regulated air pollutant by EU Directive 2008/50/EC, did not exceed the limit of 5 ppbv in the region in the vicinity of the crude oil refinery during the investigated period. No significant change in air quality in the vicinity of the oil refinery was discovered, however, an impact of the industry on the background air quality was detected. The T/B ratio (0.50-0.81) that was much lower than 2.0, identified other sources of pollution than traffic.     

Multivariate analysis of mixed contaminants (PAHs and heavy metals) at manufactured gas plant site soils

Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to provide an overview of the distribution pattern of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals in former manufactured gas plant (MGP) site soils. PCA is the powerful multivariate method to identify the patterns in data and expressing their similarities and differences. Ten PAHs (naphthalene, acenapthylene, acenaphthene, fluorene, phenanthrene, anthracene, fluoranthene, pyrene, chrysene, benzo[a]pyrene) and four toxic heavy metals — lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr) and zinc (Zn) — were detected in the site soils. PAH contamination was contributed equally by both low and high molecular weight PAHs. PCA was performed using the varimax rotation method in SPSS, 17.0. Two principal components accounting for 91.7% of the total variance was retained using scree test. Principle component 1 (PC1) substantially explained the dominance of PAH contamination in the MGP site soils. All PAHs, except anthracene, were positively correlated in PC1. There was a common thread in high molecular weight PAHs loadings, where the loadings were inversely proportional to the hydrophobicity and molecular weight of individual PAHs. Anthracene, which was less correlated with other individual PAHs, deviated well from the origin which can be ascribed to its lower toxicity and different origin than its isomer phenanthrene. Among the four major heavy metals studied in MGP sites, Pb, Cd and Cr were negatively correlated in PC1 but showed strong positive correlation in principle component 2 (PC2). Although metals may not have originated directly from gaswork processes, the correlation between PAHs and metals suggests that the materials used in these sites may have contributed to high concentrations of Pb, Cd, Cr and Zn. Thus, multivariate analysis helped to identify the sources of PAHs, heavy metals and their association in MGP site, and thereby better characterise the site risk, which would not be possible if one uses chemical analysis alone.     

Female courtship in the Banggai cardinalfish: honest signals of egg maturity and reproductive output?

Despite the vast literature on male courtship behaviour, little is known about the function and information content of female courtship behaviour. Female courtship behaviour may be important in many species, particularly where both sexes invest heavily in the offspring, and if such behaviours contain honest information regarding a females potential reproductive investment, they may be particularly important in male mate choice. Using observations of two female courtship behaviours (the rush and the twitch) from experimental pairings in the Banggai cardinalfish (Pterapogon kauderni), I addressed the question of whether these courtship behaviours contained information on female reproductive output (clutch weight) and egg maturity (proximity to spawning), traits commonly associated with male mate choice. I especially focused on the importance of these courtship behaviours in relation to other female characters, such as size and condition, using multiple regression. I found that one of these behaviours, the rush, was strongly associated with fecundity, whereas size, condition and the twitch were not. Further, I found that the twitch behaviour was associated with how close to actual spawning a female was. The results suggest that female courtship behaviour may convey highly important information in a mate choice context. I discuss the adaptive value of honest information in female courtship behaviour in light of these results.Communicated by K. Lindström     

Mating System and Sexual Selection in the Scorpionfly Panorpa vulgaris (Mecoptera: Panorpidae)

Panorpa vulgaris   has become a model insect for testing theories of sexual selection. This contribution summarizes that which has been learned in recent years and presents new data that clearly show that the mating system of P. vulgaris is not simply a resource-defense polygyny, as has previously been thought. In P. vulgaris neither the pattern in food exploitation nor the ratio of variance in the lifetime reproductive success of the two sexes is in accordance with that expected in resource defense polygynous mating systems. Lifetime mating duration is the most important proximate determinant of male fitness. Males employing alternative mating tactics obtain copulations of varying duration in relation to the following sequence: saliva secretion  1  food offering  1  no gift. The number of salivary masses which males provide to females during their lifetime is significantly correlated with the lifetime condition index. The condition index depends on the fighting prowess of males and their ability to find food items. Thus saliva secretion of Panorpa is considered a Zahavian handicap, which can serve as an honest quality indicator used by mating females. Our results confirm four main predictions of the indicator model of the theory of sexual selection: (a) the indicator signals high ecological quality of its bearer, (b) the indicator value increases with phenotypic quality, (c) the indicator value is positively correlated with the genetic quality affecting offspring fitness in a natural selection context, and (d) the quality indicator is more costly for low- than for high-quality individuals. The evolutionary consequences of the mating pattern and the sperm competition mechanism in P. vulgaris are discussed in the context the way in which sexual selection creates and maintains sperm mixing and the evolution of a promiscuous mating system.     

CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS IN NORTHERN CANADA: INTEGRATING INDIGENOUS PERSPECTIVES WITH GOVERNMENT POLICY

A study of the relationship between natural hazards and climate change in the international context provides the background for a discussion of the expected changes. In the context of this global discussion, this paper reviews the current perspectives of those natural hazards that are likely to be influenced by climate change, using northern Canada as a regional case study. The northern implications of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are examined, including the status of climate change action by the northern territorial governments, the evolving role of indigenous people, and the responsibility for climate change impacts. The difficulties surrounding natural hazards research in remote locations, and the approaches of indigenous people to natural hazards are then presented. The paper concludes with a suggested policy approach for climate change and natural hazards in northern Canada, underscoring the need for more comprehensive adaptive strategies to complement the current tendency to focus on the mitigation of greenhouse gases produced in this region.     

Mitigation of the Impact of Tropical Cyclones in Northern Australia through Community Capacity Enhancement

Community mitigation of hazard impact requires hazard knowledge and preparedness on the part of the members of diverse and complex communities. Longitudinal research in the tropical cyclone prone north of Australia has gathered extensive datasets on community awareness, preparedness and knowledge, in order to contribute to education campaigns and mitigation strategies. Data have been used to identify issues of vulnerability to cyclones and capacity to deal with the hazard. This has been developed as a community vulnerability and capacity model that may be applied to diverse communities in order to assess levels of capability to mitigate and deal with the cyclone hazard. The model is presented here in a simplified form as its development is evolving and ongoing.     

Restoration of Some Parameters in the Development of Benthos After Reduction of Anthropogenous Loading in the Ecosystem of the Sevastopol Bay in the Black Sea

Research on benthic communities have been carried out in the Sevastopol Bay of the Black Sea for a hundred years. The anthropogenous influence began to have an effect already in the 20–30^th. In this period, all oyster-banks were lost and the mussel-silt and mellina-silt communities have begun to degrade and were not found during almost seventy years in the Bay. The worst state of benthic communities was observed in the 60–90^th, when species of bottom animals were not found over some parts of the sea. In this period, only 10 macrozoobenthic species were registered in the Bay. Mollusks: Nassarius reticulatus, Bittium reticulatum, Cerastoderma glaucum and polychaetes: Nephtys hombergii, Neanthes succinea have proved the most enduring at high anthropogenous loadings The faunistic complex of benthic species registered in 1913 had the greatest similarity to the benthic species complex of 2002. Return of mussel, Melinna palmata polychaete and Ascidiella aspersa sea squirt in benthic communities of the Sevastopol Bay are responsible for the similarity between these faunistic complexes. The restoration of local populations of these benthic species has followed the significant decrease of the anthropogenous loading on the sea ecosystems as a result of the significant reduction of the military naval base in the Bay during the last five to ten years.     

Framing the Long-Term <Emphasis Type="Italic">In Situ</Emphasis> Liability Issue for Geologic Carbon Storage in the United States

This paper examines how legal standards of liability may apply to geologic carbon storage. The liability regime governing geologic carbon storage will shape the technology's cost-effectiveness and overall attractiveness. We classify potential sources of liability into operational, in situ, and climate liability. As a first step, we explore in situ liability in the United States. After summarizing legal standards of liability including negligence, breach of implied warranty, strict liability, and product liability, we discuss how liability may be addressed at the level of the federal government, state government, industry, and the firm. Finally, we address the implications of judicial treatment of liability for carbon storage, including the apportionment of liability and the adequacy of current regulations.     

The Value Of Public Participation During a Hazard,Impact, Risk And Vulnerability (HIRV) Analysis

The first part of this paper discusses the links between hazard, risk and vulnerability (HRV) analysis and the development of mitigative strategies. The second part discusses the need to include public participation when completing an HRV analysis. Two current HRV models are used to illustrate the general failure of HRV analysis to include public participation. The third part of this paper provides a brief overview of the Hazard, Impact, Risk and Vulnerability (HIRV) model and its use of public participation. The paper concludes by offering a synopsis of a case study in the town and regional area surrounding Barriere, British Columbia, Canada. This case study demonstrates a positive outcome when public participation is incorporated into an HIRV analysis.