Biomass, diversity and production of rocky shore macroalgae at two nutrient enrichment and wave action levels

The littoral zone of temperate rocky shores is normally dominated by perennial macroalgae (e.g. Fucus, Ascophyllum, Laminaria), but nutrient enrichment and/or permanently decreased wave action may lead to structural community changes from dominance of perennials to increased amounts of annual opportunistic species (mainly green algae). Macroalgal biomass, diversity and production as well as relationships between the two latter were studied using Solbergstrand’s rocky shore mesocosms in SE Norway in connection with a long-term experimental manipulation of nutrient addition and wave action (high and low levels of both factors applied in a crossed way to eight outdoor basins). After more than 2 years of experimental treatment, the total standing stock of macroalgae was larger in low nutrient than in high nutrient treatments as well as in high wave compared to low wave treatments (in autumn only). For macroalgal functional groups, bushy and filamentous brown and filamentous red algae were generally favoured by low nutrient concentrations, while annual filamentous and sheet-like green algae were stimulated by the nutrient enrichment. There was only one significant interaction between nutrient enrichment and wave action (for brown filamentous algae in autumn) and also only one significant main effect of the wave treatment (for bushy brown algae in autumn). Surprisingly, the high nutrient treatments supported a higher diversity of macroalgae, whereas the low nutrient treatments generally showed higher production rates. Moreover, significantly negative correlations were found between macroalgal diversity and primary productivity in both summer and autumn. This study shows that it is the biological components of the communities subjected to external forcing (nutrient addition or decreased wave action) that regulate production and this contradicts the common misperception that resource production in natural systems simply can be fast-forwarded by fertilization. The negative relationships between diversity and productivity, although a consequence of unexpected results for diversity and production, are also novel and hint towards species identities having more important functional consequences than general species dominance patterns and the amount of species per se. These results also emphasise the context dependency of findings within the field of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.     

Fish population dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

Small fishes in seasonally flooded environments such as the Everglades are capable of spreading into newly flooded areas and building up substantial biomass. Passive drift cannot account for the rapidity of observed population expansions. To test the ‘reaction-diffusion’ mechanism for spread of the fish, we estimated their diffusion coefficient and applied a reaction-diffusion model. This mechanism was also too weak to account for the spatial dynamics. Two other hypotheses were tested through modeling. The first—the ‘refuge mechanism’—hypothesizes that small remnant populations of small fishes survive the dry season in small permanent bodies of water (refugia), sites where the water level is otherwise below the surface. The second mechanism, which we call the ‘dynamic ideal free distribution mechanism’ is that consumption by the fish creates a prey density gradient and that fish taxis along this gradient can lead to rapid population expansion in space. We examined the two alternatives and concluded that although refugia may play an important role in recolonization by the fish population during reflooding, only the second, taxis in the direction of the flooding front, seems capable of matching empirical observations. This study has important implications for management of wetlands, as fish biomass is an essential support of higher trophic levels.     

The ability of a benthic elasmobranch to discriminate between biological and artificial electric fields

To investigate the ability of elasmobranchs to distinguish between differing prey-type electric fields we examined the electroreceptive foraging behaviour of a model species, Scyliorhinus canicula (small-spotted catshark). Catshark preferences were studied by behaviourally conditioning them to swim through narrow tunnels, and on exit presenting them simultaneously with two different electric fields. Their subsequent choices of the following paired options were recorded; (i) Two artificial electric fields (dipole electrodes) with different magnitude direct current (D.C.), (ii) Two artificial electric fields, one D.C. and the other alternating current (A.C.), of the same magnitude, and (iii) similar magnitude, natural and artificial D.C. electric fields associated with shore crabs and dipole electrodes respectively. We found a highly significant preference for the stronger D.C. electric field and a less pronounced, but still significant, preference for the A.C. electric field rather than the D.C. electric field. No preference was demonstrated between the artificial and natural D.C. electric fields. The findings are discussed in relation to the animal’s diet and ecology and with regard to anthropogenic sources of electric fields within their habitat.     

Evaluating the power of surface attendance counts to detect long-term trends in populations of crevice-nesting auklets

This study assessed metals in water and different tissues of Labeo rohita and the impact of these metals on DNA and proteins as biomarkers of gills and muscles of these fish from three different polluted sites (reference or low = KW, medium = CH and high = SK) of the Indus River, Pakistan. The Mn, Pb, Cu, Zn, Hg, and Cr levels in water, gills, liver, muscles, and skin of these fish were compared with the international permissible levels. All metals except Pb and Hg in water were within the acceptable limits of drinking water. In contrast, the Mn, Hg, and Cr levels in the fish tissues were higher than their permissible limits for fish as a human food. Here, the gills contained higher metals than the other tissues. Different patterns of biomarkers were found in fish from these sites. While the gills did not show four protein bands (55, 30, 18.4, and 16.4 kDa), the muscles showed four new protein bands (100, 85, 45, and 20 kDa) for fish from the medium and high polluted sites as compared to the reference or low polluted site. The fish from the CH and SK sites of the Indus River contained low molecular weight DNA in their gills but high molecular weight DNA in their muscles when compared with the KW site. This study suggests that the proteins and DNA profiles of L. rohita could be used as biomarkers to assess the impact of potential environmental stressors such as metals on the freshwater systems.     

Is the first-trimester combined screening result associated with the phenotype of Down syndrome? A population-based cohort study

Objective

To investigate if the Down syndrome phenotype differs according to the result of first-trimester combined screening (FTS).

Method

We included all Down syndrome cases diagnosed by karyotype in pregnancy or after birth in Denmark during 2005–2018. We compared screen positive (odds ≥1:300) and screen negative (odds <1:300) cases as well as screen result subgroups with respect to anthropometrics, congenital malformations, childhood diseases, and hospitalization.

Results

Absolute measures of fetal and birth anthropometrics were comparable between groups. A prenatal malformation diagnosis was more prevalent among screen positive than screen negative cases. Analyses suggested that this could reflect a detection bias. Cases with a screen result of 1:2–1:10 had a higher probability of being diagnosed with a malformation prenatally and with severe congenital heart disease (CHD) postnatally compared with a result of 1:11–1:300. Screen positive cases more often had non-severe CHD but less often a non-heart malformation compared with screen negative cases, while proportions of severe CHD were similar in these groups. Data on hospitalizations showed inconsistent results.

Conclusion

The 1:300 screening threshold had limited or no value in predicting Down syndrome phenotype severity. In contrast, cases with a screen result between 1:2 and 1:10 may represent a more severe phenotype.     

Temporal limits to simulating the future spread pattern of invasive species: Buddleja davidii in Europe and New Zealand

The spread of invasive species is a major ecological and economic problem. Dynamic spread modelling is a potentially valuable tool to assist regional and central government authorities to monitor and control invasive species. To date a lack of suitable data has meant that most broad scale dispersal models have not been validated with independent datasets, and so their predictive ability and reliability has remained unscrutinised. A dynamic, stochastic dispersal model of the widely invasive plant Buddleja davidii was calibrated on European spread data and then used to project the temporal progression of B. davidii's distribution in New Zealand, starting from several different historical distributions. To assess the model's performance, we constructed an occupancy map based on the average number of simulation realisations that have a population present. The application of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves to occupancy maps is introduced, but with specificity substituted by the proportion of available area used in a realisation. A derivative measure, the partial area under these curves when assessed through time (pAUC), is introduced and used to assess overall performance of the spread model. The model was able to attain a high level of model sensitivity, encompassing all of the known locations within the occupancy envelope. However, attempting to simulate the spread of this invasive species beyond a decade had very low model specificity. This is due to several factors, including the exponential process of spread (the further a population spreads the more sites exist from which it can spread stochastically), and the Markovian chain property of the stochastic system whereby differences between realisations compound through time. These features are seen in many reports of spread models, without being explicitly acknowledged. Our measure of pAUC through time allows a model's temporal performance and its specificity to be simultaneously assessed. While the rapid deterioration in model performance limits the utility of this type of modelling for forecasting long-term broad-scale strategic management of biological invasions, it does not necessarily limit its attractiveness for informing smaller scale and shorter term invasion management activities such as surveillance, containment and local eradication.     

Phenological sequences reveal aggregate life history response to climatic warming

Climatic warming is associated with organisms breeding earlier in the season than is typical for their species. In some species, however, response to warming is more complex than a simple advance in the timing of all life history events preceding reproduction. Disparities in the extent to which different components of the reproductive phenology of organisms vary with climatic warming indicate that not all life history events are equally responsive to environmental variation. Here, we propose that our understanding of phenological response to climate change can be improved by considering entire sequences of events comprising the aggregate life histories of organisms preceding reproduction. We present results of a two-year warming experiment conducted on 33 individuals of three plant species inhabiting a low-arctic site. Analysis of phenological sequences of three key events for each species revealed how the aggregate life histories preceding reproduction responded to warming, and which individual events exerted the greatest influence on aggregate life history variation. For alpine chickweed (Cerastium alpinum), warming elicited a shortening of the duration of the emergence stage by 2.5 days on average, but the aggregate life history did not differ between warmed and ambient plots. For gray willow (Salix glauca), however, all phenological events monitored occurred earlier on warmed than on ambient plots, and warming reduced the aggregate life history of this species by 22 days on average. Similarly, in dwarf birch (Betula nana), warming advanced flower bud set, blooming, and fruit set and reduced the aggregate life history by 27 days on average. Our approach provides important insight into life history responses of many organisms to climate change and other forms of environmental variation. Such insight may be compromised by considering changes in individual phenological events in isolation.     

Differences in morphology and habitat use among the native mussel <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mytilus trossulus</Emphasis>, the non-native <Emphasis Type="Italic">M. galloprovincialis,</Emphasis> and their hybrids in Puget Sound,Washington

Mytilus galloprovincialis (Mg), the Mediterranean blue mussel, is sympatric with the native M. trossulus (Mt) throughout much of the north Pacific, likely as the result of human introduction. We investigated the distribution of the two species and their hybrids (Mgt) in Puget Sound, Washington, to determine whether differences occur in habitat preference between the two species and hybrids. In addition, we investigated whether there were consistent size and shape differences between the native and introduced mussels and hybrids. Measurements of over 6,000 mussels from 30 sites, of which 1,460 were genotyped for a species-specific genetic marker, revealed that Mg and Mgt can be found throughout Puget Sound. Mg and Mgt were larger and exhibited a greater height:length ratio than Mt. Frequencies of Mg and Mgt were higher in subtidal habitats, such as docks, than on intertidal rocks, walls or pilings. Within intertidal habitats, Mg and Mgt were more frequent than Mt in the lower reaches of the intertidal. At slightly more than half the sites the frequency of the three genotypes accorded with random mating expectations suggesting no consistent barriers to gene flow between species. The standardized random sampling methods and simple morphometric identification techniques described here can be used to test whether the frequency of invasive mussels changes over time and space in Puget Sound.     

Impact of bias in predicted height on tree volume estimation: A case-study of intrinsic nonlinearity

Bias originating from intrinsic nonlinearity in nonlinear models is caused by excess curvature in the solution locus of parameter estimates derived from least squares procedures. Bias due to intrinsic nonlinearity varies according to sample size as well as model specification. This paper analyses consequences of fractionising data into smaller sub-samples. Based on measurements of stem diameter and total tree height from the first Danish national forest inventory, it is demonstrated how data splitting at random may cause the intrinsic nonlinear curvature to exceed the critical F-value. Application of a Taylor-series expansion shows that, for all practical purposes, the bias in predictions of individual tree volume (based on stem diameter and tree height) is negligible. To minimize residual variance, intrinsic curvature and, in turn, prediction bias, it is recommended that data be stratified according to site conditions, stand characteristics or other relevant criteria. Finally, the preferred model should exhibit close-to-linear behaviour.     

Driver Injury Risk Variability in Finite Element Reconstructions of Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) Frontal Motor Vehicle Crashes

Objective: A 3-phase real-world motor vehicle crash (MVC) reconstruction method was developed to analyze injury variability as a function of precrash occupant position for 2 full-frontal Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) cases.

Method: Phase I: A finite element (FE) simplified vehicle model (SVM) was developed and tuned to mimic the frontal crash characteristics of the CIREN case vehicle (Camry or Cobalt) using frontal New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) crash test data. Phase II: The Toyota HUman Model for Safety (THUMS) v4.01 was positioned in 120 precrash configurations per case within the SVM. Five occupant positioning variables were varied using a Latin hypercube design of experiments: seat track position, seat back angle, D-ring height, steering column angle, and steering column telescoping position. An additional baseline simulation was performed that aimed to match the precrash occupant position documented in CIREN for each case. Phase III: FE simulations were then performed using kinematic boundary conditions from each vehicle's event data recorder (EDR). HIC15, combined thoracic index (CTI), femur forces, and strain-based injury metrics in the lung and lumbar vertebrae were evaluated to predict injury.

Results: Tuning the SVM to specific vehicle models resulted in close matches between simulated and test injury metric data, allowing the tuned SVM to be used in each case reconstruction with EDR-derived boundary conditions. Simulations with the most rearward seats and reclined seat backs had the greatest HIC15, head injury risk, CTI, and chest injury risk. Calculated injury risks for the head, chest, and femur closely correlated to the CIREN occupant injury patterns. CTI in the Camry case yielded a 54% probability of Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ chest injury in the baseline case simulation and ranged from 34 to 88% (mean = 61%) risk in the least and most dangerous occupant positions. The greater than 50% probability was consistent with the case occupant's AIS 2 hemomediastinum. Stress-based metrics were used to predict injury to the lower leg of the Camry case occupant. The regional-level injury metrics evaluated for the Cobalt case occupant indicated a low risk of injury; however, strain-based injury metrics better predicted pulmonary contusion. Approximately 49% of the Cobalt occupant's left lung was contused, though the baseline simulation predicted 40.5% of the lung to be injured.

Conclusions: A method to compute injury metrics and risks as functions of precrash occupant position was developed and applied to 2 CIREN MVC FE reconstructions. The reconstruction process allows for quantification of the sensitivity and uncertainty of the injury risk predictions based on occupant position to further understand important factors that lead to more severe MVC injuries.