METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

Sleepiness among night-time drivers: relationship to blood alcohol concentration and other factors

OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to explore the distribution and correlates of subjective sleepiness among the general night-time driving population. METHODS: The survey took place in three British Columbia communities in June 2003 between 21:00 hours to 03:00 hours. Sites and vehicles were selected randomly. Surveyors obtained information on several demographic and situational variables including self-assessed degree of sleepiness and self-reported hours asleep and awake, as well as an objective measure of blood alcohol concentration obtained from a hand-held breath-testing device. RESULTS: The total compliance rate among intercepted drivers was 85%. Among the 2335 drivers responding to the questionnaire, 68.4% indicated that they were wide awake, 27.6% were somewhat sleepy, and 4.1% were very sleepy. Logistic regression quantified the independent contributions of the various factors to subjective sleepiness. Male drivers with positive blood alcohol concentrations under 50 mg% were more likely to report feeling sleepy than those with either higher or with zero blood alcohol concentration. Greater relative risk of sleepiness was also associated with being female, being under age 55, and advanced hour of night. Driving with passengers of the same gender was associated with lower reported sleepiness. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of night-time drivers are driving while sleepy, especially at late night and early morning hours. The combination of alcohol and sleepiness compounds impairment in experimental studies and deserves greater attention in crash risk studies and as a topic for public education and awareness.     

Young driver risk in relation to parents' retrospective driving record

PROBLEM: Parents are an important potential influence on the driving safety of their children. This study examined the relationship of parental driving record on male and female offspring's at-fault collision risk. METHOD: Drivers aged 16-21 on the date of full licensure were selected from driver records and a matching process was used to identify putative parents in two-parent households. Poisson regression models were developed to predict at-fault collisions of male and female youth in the three years following full licensure from parents' at-fault collisions, speeding offenses, and other moving offenses in the four years prior to children's licensure. One set of models examined the relative risk associated with increasing numbers of maternal and paternal at-fault collisions and offenses. Other models examined the joint versus separate maternal and parental contributions. RESULTS: Controlling for region of residence, both mothers' and fathers' at-fault collisions were associated with an increased risk in both male and female youth at-fault collisions. Mothers' and fathers' speeding offenses were also associated with increased relative risk of at-fault collisions for both sons and daughters, while fathers' other moving offenses increased collision risk for sons but not daughters. DISCUSSION: Further research is required to identify how parental driving risk is transmitted to children. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: (a) Parents of young children should be informed of their role in influencing their children's future driving risk; (b) The results identify risk factors that could be of interest to licensing authorities and the insurance industry.     

Getting the ‘pulse’ of your employees: the use of cardiovascular research in better understanding behavior in organizations

Cardiovascular disease has severe consequences for both individual betterment and organizational health. Yet, organization‐based cardiovascular research remains quite limited. This commentary addresses this void by integrating research dating from the famous Hawthorne experiments with current medical science. It then suggests future organizational research on cardiovascular health and recommends use of specific composite cardiovascular measures to advance our understanding of the organizational implications of cardiovascular disease. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The estimated reduction in the odds of loss-of-control type crashes for sport utility vehicles equipped with electronic stability control

INTRODUCTION: Using data from the NASS General Estimates System (GES), the method of induced exposure was used to assess the effects of electronic stability control (ESC) on loss-of-control type crashes for sport utility vehicles. METHOD: Sport utility vehicles were classified into crash types generally associated with loss of control and crash types most likely not associated with loss of control. Vehicles were then compared as to whether ESC technology was present or absent in the vehicles. A generalized additive model was fit to assess the effects of ESC, driver age, and driver gender on the odds of loss of control. In addition, the effects of ESC on roads that were not dry were compared to effects on roads that were dry. RESULTS: Overall, the estimated percentage reduction in the odds of a loss-of-control crash for sport utility vehicles equipped with ESC was 70.3%. Both genders and all age groups showed reduced odds of loss-of-control crashes, but there was no significant difference between males and females. With respect to driver age, the maximum percentage reduction of 73.6% occurred at age 27. The positive effects of ESC on roads that were not dry were significantly greater than on roads that were dry.     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Toward a new understanding of the links between poverty and illegal wildlife hunting

Conservation organizations have increasingly raised concerns about escalating rates of illegal hunting and trade in wildlife. Previous studies have concluded that people hunt illegally because they are financially poor or lack alternative livelihood strategies. However, there has been little attempt to develop a richer understanding of the motivations behind contemporary illegal wildlife hunting. As a first step, we reviewed the academic and policy literatures on poaching and illegal wildlife use and considered the meanings of poverty and the relative importance of structure and individual agency. We placed motivations for illegal wildlife hunting within the context of the complex history of how wildlife laws were initially designed and enforced to indicate how hunting practices by specific communities were criminalized. We also considered the nature of poverty and the reasons for economic deprivation in particular communities to indicate how particular understandings of poverty as material deprivation ultimately shape approaches to illegal wildlife hunting. We found there is a need for a much better understanding of what poverty is and what motivates people to hunt illegally.     

Muskox status,recent variation,and uncertain future

Ambio - Muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) are an integral component of Arctic biodiversity. Given low genetic diversity, their ability to respond to future and rapid Arctic change is unknown, although...     

Use of Artificial Roost Structures by Bats at the Indianapolis International Airport

From 1992–1996, 3204 artificial roosts of 9 types were placed in woodlots near Indianapolis International Airport in an effort to provide habitat for the federally-endangered Indiana myotis (Myotis sodalis) and to determine the feasibility of using these structures to manage bats in a rapidly developing suburban area. We surveyed these structures at least annually during 1992–1999 and found only northern myotis (Myotis septentrionalis) regularly using the structures. Four other species were occasionally found using structures including big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus, n = 14 individuals), little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus, n = 2), Indiana myotis (Myotis sodalis, n = 2), and one silver-haired bat (Lasionycteris noctivagans). Single, triple, and Missouri-style batboxes were almost always used, rather than the six other types of experimental roosts that had been in place. However, after 10 years in place, it appears that Indiana bats are acclimated to boxes, as 6 of them were being used rather regularly by Indiana myotis. Bat boxes can provide roosting habitat for some species under conditions where few suitable roosts exist, but assuring an abundance of natural habitats is usually more desirable for conservation of tree-roosting bats.