INCORPORATING UNCERTAINTY IN THE DESIGN OF STREAM CHMNEL MODIFICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: The designs of stream channel naturalization, rehabilitation, and restoration projects are inherently fraught with uncertainty. Although a systematic approach to design can be described, the likelihood of success or failure of the design is unknown due to uncertainties within the design and implementation process. In this paper, a method for incorporating uncertainty in decision‐making during the design phase is presented that uses a decision analysis method known as Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA). The approach is applied to a channel rehabilitation project in north‐central Pennsylvania. FMEA considers risk in terms of the likelihood of a component failure, the consequences of failure, and the level of difficulty required to detect failure. Ratings developed as part of the FMEA can provide justification for decision making in determining design components that require particular attention to prevent failure of the project and the appropriate compensating actions to be taken.     

Limitations on the role of incorporated organic matter in reducing pesticide leaching.

The use of organic amendments has been suggested as a method of controlling pesticide leaching through soils. The enarenados soils of the intensive horticulture of the Almeria province of southern Spain contain buried organic matter horizons above a soil layer amended with clay. This region is ideal for understanding the potential for and limitations of organic amendments in preventing pesticide pollution. This study measured the sorption and degradation potential of carbofuran in this soil system and the hydrological behaviour of the soil horizons. The sorption of carbofuran was controlled by the organic carbon content, the degradation was strongly pH-dependent and the acidic organic layer protected the sorbed carbofuran against degradation. Hydrologically, the soil system is dominated by ponding above an amended clay layer and by the presence of macropores that can transport water through this clay. A simple model is proposed on this basis and shows that although high levels of dissolved organic carbon can be released by buried organic horizons, the major control on re-release of sorbed pesticide is the potential for sorption hysteresis in this organic layer. A comparison of sorption and degradation data for carbamate insecticides used in the region with groundwater observations for these compounds shows that no amount of incorporated organic would protect against pollution from highly water-soluble compounds.     

The importance of tangible and intangible factors in human–carnivore coexistence

Conflict with humans is one of the major threats facing the world's remaining large carnivore populations, and understanding human attitudes is key to improving coexistence. We surveyed people living near Hwange National Park about their attitudes toward coexisting with lions. We used ordinal regression models with the results of the survey to investigate the importance of a range of tangible and intangible factors on attitudes. The variables investigated included the costs and benefits of wildlife presence, emotion, culture, religion, vulnerability, risk perception, notions of responsibility, and personal value orientations. This was for the purpose of effectively tailoring conservation efforts but also for ethical policy making. Intangible factors (e.g., fear and ecocentric values) were as important as, if not more important than, tangible factors (such as livestock losses) for understanding attitudes, based on the effect sizes of these variables. The degree to which participants’ fear of lions interfered with their daily activities was the most influential variable. The degree to which benefits accrue to households from the nearby protected area was also highly influential, as was number of livestock lost, number of dependents, ecocentric value orientation, and participation in conflict mitigation programs. Contrary to what is often assumed, metrics of livestock loss did not dominate attitudes to coexistence with lions. Furthermore, we found that socioeconomic variables may appear important when studied in isolation, but their effect may disappear when controlling for variables related to beliefs, perceptions, and past experiences. This raises questions about the widespread reliance on socioeconomic variables in the field of human–wildlife conflict and coexistence. To facilitate coexistence with large carnivores, we recommend measures that reduce fear (through education and through protective measures that reduce the need to be fearful), reduction of livestock losses, and ensuring local communities benefit from conservation. Ecocentric values also emerged as influential, highlighting the need to develop conservation initiatives tailored to local values.     

Modelling cheetah relocation success in southern Africa using an Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle

Relocation is one of the strategies used by conservationists to deal with problem cheetahs in southern Africa. The success of a relocation event and the factors that influence it within the broader context of long-term viability of wild cheetah metapopulations was the focus of a Bayesian Network (BN) modelling workshop in South Africa. Using a new heuristics, Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), described in this paper, several networks were formulated to distinguish between the unique relocation experiences and conditions in Botswana and South Africa. There were many common underlying factors, despite the disparate relocation strategies and sites in the two countries. The benefit of relocation BNs goes beyond the identification and quantification of the factors influencing the success of relocations and population viability. They equip conservationists with a powerful communication tool in their negotiations with land and livestock owners, which is key to the long-term survival of cheetahs in southern Africa. Importantly, the IBNDC provides the ecological modeller with a methodological process that combines several BN design frameworks to facilitate the development of a BN in a multi-expert and multi-field domain.     

Polymodal foraging in adult female loggerheads (Caretta caretta)

To determine whether loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in southeastern USA exhibit polymorphic foraging strategies, we evaluated skin samples for stable isotopes of carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) from 310 loggerheads from four locations on the east coast of Florida and epibionts from 48 loggerheads. We found a dichotomy between a depleted δ¹³C cluster and an enriched δ¹³C cluster. Epibionts from oceanic/pelagic or neritic/benthic habitats were largely consistent with this dichotomy. The bimodal distribution of δ¹³C could reflect a bimodal foraging strategy or—because of the potential for confounding among four gradients of δ¹³C in marine environments—a polymodal foraging strategy. We integrate our results with results from other stable isotope studies, satellite telemetry, and flipper tags to evaluate potential foraging strategies. Understanding foraging strategies is essential for development of management plans for this endangered species that has suffered a 43% population decline over the last decade.     

Blood Pb Levels in pregnant Nigerian women in Abakaliki, South-Eastern Nigeria

Environmental lead (Pb) exposure and toxicity have been recognised as public health problems of global importance, affecting both the developed and developing nations. In this work, blood Pb of pregnant women that were not exposed to lead by their occupation (n?=?349), with mean ± SD age of 27.0?±?4.8 years and gestational age of 21.8?±?3.1 weeks at recruitment were determined using atomic absorption spectrophotometer. The results showed that 309 (88.5 %) of the women had a mean?±?SD blood Pb of 40.0?±?16.5 μg/dl, which is higher than the current US Centre for Disease Prevention and Control action limit (>10 μg/dl). The observed high prevalence of elevated blood Pb levels may be related to maternal low socioeconomic status. Health education is, therefore, urgently needed to sensitise the general public and the policy makers of the level of Pb exposure in Abakaliki environment and the inherent health implications. In addition to mandatory environmental lead monitoring, blood Pb screening for would-be mother is recommended, and those whose blood Pb are found elevated should be appropriately treated.     

Individual-level patterns of division of labor in honeybees highlight flexibility in colony-level developmental mechanisms

Honeybee division of labor (DOL) has become a model system for exploring the genetic basis of complex traits and phenotypic plasticity. Although many highly informative behavioral studies have been conducted on this topic (both at the cohort and individual levels), most studies have focused on a few behavioral acts, such as the age of first foraging. Few studies have recorded large numbers of relatively complete individual-level patterns of DOL. Such fine-scale patterns would lay the foundation for rigorous molecular analyses of this phenomenon and allow us to differentiate between competing mechanistic models of DOL. Here, we record over 100 individual-level DOL patterns of bees living under natural conditions. We found that the transitions between castes (polyphenism states) are often gradual, with bees being in multiple castes at once. This is contrary to the traditional view that changes are abrupt. We also found that bees often skip castes, a key prediction of a recent model of DOL. We further confirm variation in the rate at which bees pass through castes and the age of first foraging. Taken together, these results greatly improve our understanding of this model system and allow for a strong revision of current models of honeybee DOL.     

Psychological drivers of risk-reducing behaviors to limit human–wildlife conflict

Conflicts between people and wild animals are increasing globally, often with serious consequences for both. Local regulations or ordinances are frequently used to promote human behaviors that minimize these conflicts (risk-reducing behaviors), but compliance with ordinances can be highly variable. While efforts to increase compliance could be improved through applications of conservation psychology, little is known about the relative influence of different factors motivating compliance. Using concepts from psychology and risk theory, we conducted a longitudinal study pairing data from mail surveys with direct observations of compliance with a wildlife ordinance requiring residents to secure residential garbage from black bears (Ursus americanus). We assessed the relative influence of beliefs and attitudes toward bears and bear proofing, perceived behavioral control, perceived risks and benefits assigned to bears, norms, trust in management, previous experience with conflicts, and demographics on compliance behavior (i.e., bear proofing). Data on previous experience were obtained through direct observation and survey reports. We found that higher compliance rates were associated with more observed conflicts on a respondent's block. Counter to expectations, however, residents were less compliant when they were more trusting of the management agency and perceived more benefits from bears. We suggest that messages have the potential to increase compliance when they empower residents by linking successful management of conflicts to individual actions and emphasize how reducing conflicts could maintain benefits provided by wildlife. Modifying existing educational materials to account for these psychological considerations and evaluating their impact on compliance behavior over time are important next steps in changing human behaviors relevant to the globally important problem of human-wildlife conflict.     

Ex situ management as insurance against extinction of mammalian megafauna in an uncertain world

The persistence of endangered species may depend on the fate of a very small number of individual animals. In situ conservation alone may sometimes be insufficient. In these instances, the International Union for Conservation of Nature provides guidelines for ex situ conservation and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) indicates how ex situ management can support the CBD's objectives by providing insurance policies for species. The circumstances that justify its use are uncertain. To evaluate the current in situ extinction risk and ex situ management of 43 critically endangered species of mammalian megafauna, we used nonmetric multidimensional scaling and geopolitical variables related to governance, economics, and national policy within their extant ranges. We then fitted generalized additive models to assess the contribution of each variable to the ordination. Fifteen (almost one-third) of the world's terrestrial mammalian megafauna are not the subject of any ex situ management. Seventy-three percent of these taxa occur in areas characterized by political uncertainty, such as border zones or areas affected by armed conflicts, mainly in Africa and the Middle East. A further 23% of taxa in ex situ programs do not meet sustainability criteria for inbreeding avoidance. Strategic conservation planning, such as the One Plan approach, may improve ex situ management for these taxa. Given the escalating trend in threats afflicting megafauna, ex situ management should be considered more rigorously, particularly in politically unstable regions, to achieve CBD Target 12 (prevent extinction of threatened species).