Human Population Density and Prediction of Local Plant Extinction in Britain

Throughout the world, and particularly in densely populated countries like Britain, human activities exert a dominant influence on the abundance of both plants and animals. The commonness and rarity of plants in Britain has been plausibly linked to human land use. In Western Europe the identity of increasing and decreasing plants appears to depend on human population density, which is itself a crude measure of human impact on the landscape. The publication of new data on the changing distributions of scarce British plants allowed us to investigate the relationship between loss of scarce plants and human population density in Britain. Our results confirm that a direct effect of human population density on local plant extinctions can be detected at the regional scale in Britain. Although intensive agriculture is conventionally regarded as the greatest threat to British wildlife, our analysis suggests that urbanization may be at least as significant a danger.     

Contingent Valuation and Real Economic Commitments: Evidence from Electric Utility Green Pricing Programmes

This paper presents the findings of two 'green pricing' studies conducted to evaluate public support of utilities' investments in renewable energy technologies. These studies compared hypothetical WTP statements with actual payment commitments. The results of these studies indicate that the CVM can be an accurate indicator of an individual's WTP, but that it is an unreliable predictor of which individuals will actually pay. This has important implications for aggregating mean WTP estimates of the value of environmental benefits. It also suggests that market simulations can be useful for predicting programme participation rates when voluntary donations are used as a payment vehicle.     

Extending the J-value framework for safety analysis to include the environmental costs of a large accident

A severe accident on an industrial plant has the potential to cause, in addition to human harm, general damage and hence expense, associated with ground contamination, evacuation of people and business disruption, for example. The total cost of damages, given the name “environmental costs” in this paper, may be comparable with or larger than the cost of direct health consequences, as assessed objectively by the J-value approach. While the low probability of the accident may mean that the expectation of monetary loss is small, the paper develops a utility-based approach to determine how much should be spent on protection systems to protect against both environmental costs and human harm. The behaviour of the fair decision maker in an organisation facing possible environmental costs is represented by an Atkinson Utility function, which is dependent on the organisation's assets and on the elasticity of marginal utility or, equivalently, the coefficient of relative risk aversion, “risk-aversion” for short. A Second Judgment Value, J₂, may be derived from the spend on the protection system after subtracting the amount sanctioned to prevent direct human harm. This net, environmental expenditure is divided by the most that it is reasonable to spend to avert environmental costs at the highest, rational risk-aversion. The denominator in this ratio is found by first calculating the maximum, sensible spend at a risk-aversion of zero, and then multiplying this figure by a Risk Multiplier to give the maximum, fair amount to avert environmental costs. The Risk Multiplier incorporates a risk-aversion that is as large as it can be without rendering the organisation's safety decisions indiscriminate and hence random. An overall, Total Judgment Value, the J_T-value, may also be calculated, which takes into account the reduction in both human harm and environmental cost brought about by the protection system. The new J_T-value will show similar behaviour to the original J-value, in that J_T-values up to unity will indicate reasonable value for money, while J_T-values greater than unity will indicate a prima facie overspend on protection that will need to be justified by further argument. While the analysis is phrased in terms of environmental costs, the treatment is sufficiently general for all costs, including onsite damages, loss of capability etc. to be included. The new, J_T-value method provides for a full and objective evaluation of the worth of any industrial protection system. A worked example is given.     

The limits to risk aversion: Part 2: The permission point and worked examples

Part 2 extends the analysis to show that it is possible to find the “permission point”, the value of (the coefficient of relative) risk-aversion, at which decisions to sanction environmental protection are most likely to be made. The mathematical model describes the process by which the decision maker varies his risk-aversion over a range of feasible values to find the risk-aversion that will give him the greatest desire to invest in the protection system under consideration. If he can find such a risk-aversion before losing discrimination (because the system is too expensive, given its performance), he will adopt it as his “permission point” and decide in favour of the expenditure. The permission point is, of course, bounded above by the point of indiscriminate decision. A maximum Risk Multiplier calculated at the point of indiscriminate decision may be applied to the protection expenditure at monetary break-even to give the maximum, rational outlay on protection. Moreover, it is possible to model how the average UK adult should take decisions on protection to maximise his utility. Different situations will call for different values of risk-aversion, which may explain why economists have come up with differing estimates of this parameter in the past. However, a central, average risk-aversion may be calculated for the average UK adult as 0.85, which is within 4% of the value, 0.82, found from the newly reported method based on a trade-off between income and future free time, and is consistent with several recent economic estimates. Worked examples assess how much an organisation should spend on a protection scheme to prevent accidents with very large environmental consequences.     

Verifying emission factors and national POPs emission inventories for the UK using measurements and modelling at two rural locations

Different approaches are used to verify the adequacy of emission factors (EFs) and their use in emission inventories of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). The applicability of EFs was tested using atmospheric dispersion modelling to predict atmospheric concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and resulting toxic equivalents (SigmaTEQ) and particulate matter <10 microm (PM(10)) in two rural locations in northern England (UK). The modelling was based on general assumptions of fuel composition, consumption and heating needs to simulate emissions of POPs from the domestic burning of coal and wood where ambient measurements were made in the winter of 1998. The model was used to derive the local contribution to ambient air concentrations, which were estimated independently based on comparative air measurements. The results support the hypothesis that in both villages, the majority of PAHs and the lower chlorinated PCDFs were locally released. The situation for PCBs and polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs) was different. While the EFs show the release of both compound groups from the domestic burning of coal and wood, the ambient levels of these "legacy POPs" in the villages were still clearly dominated by other sources. Rural areas relying mainly on fossil fuels can exceed the proposed UK ambient air quality standard for benzo[a]pyrene during winter. The measured EFs were then used to estimate the importance of the domestic burning of coal and wood to national emission inventories for these compound classes. Extrapolations to the UK suggest that the domestic burning of pure wood and coal were minor emitters for chlorinated POPs but contributed strongly to PAH and PM(10) levels in 2000. Finally, the UK's national POPs emission inventories based on source inventories and EF, as used here, were compared to estimates derived using the increase in atmospheric concentration of selected POPs.     

Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) concentrations in the Antarctic troposphere measured during the photochemical experiment at Neumayer (PEAN'99)

Because investigations of PAN at higher southern latitudes are very scarce, we measured surface PAN concentrations for the first time in Antarctica. During the Photochemical Experiment at Neumayer (PEAN'99) campaign mean surface PAN mixing ratios of 13±7 pptv and maximum values of 48 pptv were found. When these PAN mixing ratios were compared to the sum of NO_x and inorganic nitrate they were found to be equal or higher. Low ambient air temperatures and low PAN concentrations caused a slow homogeneous PAN decomposition rate of approximately 5×10⁻² pptv h⁻¹. These slow decay rates were not sufficient to firmly establish the simultaneously observed NO_x concentrations. In addition, low concentration ratios of [HNO₃]/[NO_x] imply that the photochemical production of NO_x within the snow pack can influence surface NO_x mixing ratios in Antarctica. Alternate measurements of PAN mixing ratios at two different heights above the snow surface were performed to derive fluxes between the lower troposphere and the underlying snow pack using calculated friction velocities. Most of the concentration differences were below the precision of the measurements. Therefore, only an upper limit for the PAN flux of ±1×10¹³ molecules m⁻² s⁻¹ without a predominant direction can be estimated. However, PAN fluxes below this limit can still influence both the transfer of nitrogen compounds between atmosphere and ice, and the PAN budget in higher southern latitudes.     

青岛近海PCDD/Fs的沉积通量、毒性当量及来源

用高分辨率气相色谱-质谱方法对青岛胶州湾内外表层沉积物、柱状岩心及贻贝样品中的17种毒性多氯代二苯并二 /呋喃(PCDD/Fs)进行了分析和讨论.表层沉积物的SP_4-8CDD/Fs含量范围在11.6～369pg/g dw,主要以P_4-8CDFs为主.S2,3,7,8-PCDD/Fs含量范围4.1～232.4pg/g dw.在环流作用下沉积物中形成了明显的东-西分布格局.除河口处外,PCDD/F同系物分布基本上相同,即低氯代PCDD/Fs占主导.SP_4-8CDD/Fs沉积通量从1951年起逐渐增大,STEQ沉积通量从1980年显著增大.青岛近海PCDD/Fs的来源相对恒定,推测为城市污水污泥和大气沉降.贝肉中S2,3,7,8-PCDD/Fs为2.9～5.1pg/g dw. TEQ的主要来源为2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF(35%)、2,3,7,8-TCDF(30%)、2,3,7,8,-TCDD(30%).     

ANALYSIS OF FIRM WATER SUPPLY UNDER COMPLEX INSTITUTIONAL CONSTRAINTS1

River basin computer simulation studies often do not properly include the complex legal and institutional factors governing water allocation. These factors include formal water rights and informal borrowing agreements among the basin water users. An attempt has been made in this study to show that such factors can be included. We also show that an optimal, integrated approach to reservoir operations in a river basin can do much to alleviate the burden of new demands placed on available water resources. The procurement of a firm water supply for a proposed coal fired power plant is analyzed as a case study. An efficient river basin simulation model is used to determine the viability of a scheme for providing an annual firm water supply to the plant, with consideration of the existing water storage and demands within the basin. Given the hydrologic sequence considered, the model results show that the proposed strategy is viable in that the required firm water supply can be realized without causing harm to decreed water users in the basin. However, integrated diversion and reservoir operations are required to assure a desirable uniform rate of delivery of reusable effluent to the power plant.