Prioritization of Ecosystem Services Research: Tampa Bay Demonstration Project

The Tampa Bay Ecosystem Services Demonstration Project (TBESDP) is part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Ecosystem Services Research Program. The principal objectives of TBESDP are to (1) quantify the ecosystem services of the Tampa Bay watershed, (2) determine the value of ecosystem services to society, (3) predict the supply of ecosystem services under future scenarios of population growth and climate change, and (4) apply this knowledge through models and tools that will support the best informed environmental decisions possible. The scope and complexity of this project required intensive effort to establish which services can be quantified by applying existing models, data, and scientific literature and which services will require supporting research. Research priorities were assessed by: (1) developing and refining conceptual models of major ecosystems in the Tampa Bay region, (2) gathering input from stakeholders about the relative importance and values of various ecosystem services, (3) preparing and reviewing a bibliometric analysis of the volume of scientific literature relevant to the ecosystems and services of interest, and (4) evaluating an integrated analysis of importance, value, and availability of scientific information. This analysis led us to focus on two research priorities, seagrass-habitat functions as support for fishery production, and wetlands as regulators of water quality.     

Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

Offspring sex ratios reflect lack of repayment by auxiliary males in a cooperatively breeding passerine

The repayment hypothesis posits that primary sex ratios in cooperative species should be biased towards the helping sex because these offspring “repay” a portion of their cost through helping behavior and therefore are less expensive to produce. However, many cooperatively breeding birds and mammals do not show the predicted bias in the primary sex ratio. Recent theoretical work has suggested that the repayment hypothesis should only hold when females gain a large fitness advantage from the presence of auxiliary adults in the group. When auxiliaries provide little or no fitness advantage, competition between relatives should lead to sex ratios biased towards the dispersing (non-helping) sex. We examined the benefits auxiliaries provide to females and corresponding offspring sex ratios in the red-backed fairy-wren (Malurus melanocephalus), a cooperatively breeding Australian bird with male auxiliary helpers. We found that auxiliaries provide little or no benefit to female reproductive success or survival. As predicted, the population primary sex ratio was biased towards daughters, the dispersing sex, and females with auxiliaries produced female-biased broods whereas females without auxiliaries produced unbiased broods. Moreover, offspring sex ratios were more strongly biased toward females in years when auxiliaries were more common in the population. These results suggest that offspring sex ratios are associated with competition among the non-dispersing sex in this species, and also that females may use cues to assess local breeding opportunities for their offspring.     

Experimental investigation of hydrogen–air deflagrations and detonations in semi-confined flat layers

This paper presents results of an experimental investigation on the deflagration and deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) in an obstructed (blockage ratio BR = 50%), semi-confined flat layer filled with uniform hydrogen–air mixtures. The effect of mixture reactivity depending on flat layer thickness and its width is studied to evaluate the critical conditions for sonic flame propagation and the possibility for detonation onset. The experiments were performed in a transparent, rectangular channel with a length of 2.5 m. The flat layer thickness was varied from 0.06 to 0.24 m and the experiments were performed for different channel widths of 0.3, 0.6 and 0.9 m. The experimental results show flame velocity vs. hydrogen concentration for different thicknesses and widths of the semi-confined flat layer. Three different flame propagation regimes were observed: slow subsonic flame (M << 1), sonic deflagration (M ～ 1) and detonation (M >> 1). It is shown that flame acceleration (FA) to sonic speed is independent of the width of the flat layer. The critical expansion ratio for effective flame acceleration to sonic speed was found to be linearly dependent on the reciprocal layer thickness.     

Tasmanian landowner preferences for conservation incentive programs: a latent class approach

An empirical model of landowners' conservation incentive program choice is developed in which information about landowners' socio-economic and property characteristics and their attitudes, is combined with incentive program attributes. In a Choice survey landowners were presented with the choice of two incentive programs modelled as 'bundles of attributes' mimicking a voluntary choice scenario. Landowner behaviour and decision and the type of conditions and regulations they preferred were analyzed. Based on choice survey data, landowner heterogeneity was accounted for using a latent class approach to estimate the preference parameters. Three latent classes of landowners with different attitudes to the role and outcome of establishing conservation reserves on private land were identified: multi-objective owners; environment owners; and production owners. Only a small proportion of landowners, mostly environment owners, would voluntarily join a program. Although compensation funding contributed to voluntary program choice for multi-objective owners and environment owners, welfare losses were around 4000 AUD per hectare, which is less than the average agricultural land value in Tasmania. Landowners for whom compensation funding contributed to voluntary program choice were also most likely to set aside land for conservation without payment. This raises the possibility that the government's compensation expenditure could potentially be either reduced or re-allocated to landowners who will not voluntarily take conservation action. Increasing participation in conservation incentive programs and minimizing the welfare losses associated with meeting conservation targets may be best achieved by offering programs that allow flexibility in terms of legal arrangements and other program attributes.     

Contrasting Landscape Influences on Sediment Supply and Stream Restoration Priorities in Northern Fennoscandia (Sweden and Finland) and Coastal British Columbia

Sediment size and supply exert a dominant control on channel structure. We review the role of sediment supply in channel structure, and how regional differences in sediment supply and landuse affect stream restoration priorities. We show how stream restoration goals are best understood within a common fluvial geomorphology framework defined by sediment supply, storage, and transport. Landuse impacts in geologically young landscapes with high sediment yields (e.g., coastal British Columbia) typically result in loss of instream wood and accelerated sediment inputs from bank erosion, logging roads, hillslopes and gullies. In contrast, northern Sweden and Finland are landscapes with naturally low sediment yields caused by low relief, resistant bedrock, and abundant mainstem lakes that act as sediment traps. Landuse impacts involved extensive channel narrowing, removal of obstructions, and bank armouring with boulders to facilitate timber floating, thereby reducing sediment supply from bank erosion while increasing export through higher channel velocities. These contrasting landuse impacts have pushed stream channels in opposite directions (aggradation versus degradation) within a phase-space defined by sediment transport and supply. Restoration in coastal British Columbia has focused on reducing sediment supply (through bank and hillslope stabilization) and restoring wood inputs. In contrast, restoration in northern Fennoscandia (Sweden and Finland) has focused on channel widening and removal of bank-armouring boulders to increase sediment supply and retention. These contrasting restoration priorities illustrate the consequences of divergent regional landuse impacts on sediment supply, and the utility of planning restoration activities within a mechanistic sediment supply-transport framework.     

Knowledge gain and behavioral change in citizen-science programs

Citizen-science programs are often touted as useful for advancing conservation literacy, scientific knowledge, and increasing scientific-reasoning skills among the public. Guidelines for collaboration among scientists and the public are lacking and the extent to which these citizen-science initiatives change behavior is relatively unstudied. Over two years, we studied 82 participants in a three-day program that included education about non-native invasive plants and collection of data on the occurrence of those plants. Volunteers were given background knowledge about invasive plant ecology and trained on a specific protocol for collecting invasive plant data. They then collected data and later gathered as a group to analyze data and discuss responsible environmental behavior with respect to invasive plants. We tested whether participants without experience in plant identification and with little knowledge of invasive plants increased their knowledge of invasive species ecology, participation increased knowledge of scientific methods, and participation affected behavior. Knowledge of invasive plants increased on average 24%, but participation was insufficient to increase understanding of how scientific research is conducted. Participants reported increased ability to recognize invasive plants and increased awareness of effects of invasive plants on the environment, but this translated into little change in behavior regarding invasive plants. Potential conflicts between scientific goals, educational goals, and the motivation of participants must be considered during program design.     

Quantifying secondary pest outbreaks in cotton and their monetary cost with causal-inference statistics

Secondary pest outbreaks occur when the use of a pesticide to reduce densities of an unwanted target pest species triggers subsequent outbreaks of other pest species. Although secondary pest outbreaks are thought to be familiar in agriculture, their rigorous documentation is made difficult by the challenges of performing randomized experiments at suitable scales. Here, we quantify the frequency and monetary cost of secondary pest outbreaks elicited by early-season applications of broad-spectrum insecticides to control the plant bug Lygus spp. (primarily L. hesperus) in cotton grown in the San Joaquin Valley, California, USA. We do so by analyzing pest-control management practices for 969 cotton fields spanning nine years and 11 private ranches. Our analysis uses statistical methods to draw formal causal inferences from nonexperimental data that have become popular in public health and economics, but that are not yet widely known in ecology or agriculture. We find that, in fields that received an early-season broad-spectrum insecticide treatment for Lygus, 20.2% +/- 4.4% (mean +/- SE) of late-season pesticide costs were attributable to secondary pest outbreaks elicited by the early-season insecticide application for Lygus. In 2010 U.S. dollars, this equates to an additional $6.00 +/- $1.30 (mean +/- SE) per acre in management costs. To the extent that secondary pest outbreaks may be driven by eliminating pests' natural enemies, these figures place a lower bound on the monetary value of ecosystem services provided by native communities of arthropod predators and parasitoids in this agricultural system.     

Effect of environmental parameters on the degradability of polymer films in laboratory-scale composting reactors

Previous research in our laboratory reported a convenient laboratory-scale composting test method to study the weight loss of polymer films in aerobic thermophilic (53°C) reactors maintained at a 60% moisture content. The laboratory-scale compost reactors contained the following synthetic compost mixture (percentage on dry-weight basis): tree leaves (45.0), shredded paper (16.5), food (6.7), meat (5.8), cow manure (17.5), sawdust (1.9), aluminum and steel shavings (2.4), glass beads (1.3), urea (1.9), and a compost seed (1.0) which is designated Mix-1 in this work. To simplify the laboratory-scale compost weight loss test method and better understand how compost mixture compositions and environmental parameters affect the rate of plastic degradation, a systematic variation of the synthetic mixture composition as well as the moisture content was carried out. Cellulose acetate (CA) with a degree of substitution (DS) value of 1.7 and cellophane films were chosen as test polymer substrates for this work. The extent of CA DS-1.7 and cellophane weight loss as a function of the exposure time remained unchanged when the metal and glass components of the mixture were excluded in Mix-2. Further study showed that large variations in the mixture composition such as the replacement of tree leaves, food, meat, and sawdust with steam-exploded wood and alfalfa (forming Mix-C) could be made with little or no change in the time dependence of CA DS-1.7 film weight loss. In contrast, substituting tree leaves, food, meat, cow manure, and sawdust with steam-exploded wood in combination with either Rabbit Choice (Mix-D) or starch and urea (Mix-E) resulted in a significant time increase (from 7 to 12 days) for the complete disappearance of CA DS-1.7 films. Interestingly, in this work no direct correlation was observed between the C/N ratio (which ranged from 13.9 to 61.4) and the CA DS-1.7 film weight loss. Decreasing moisture contents of the compost Mix-2 from 60 and 50 and 40% resulted in dramatic changes in polymer degradation such that CA DS-1.7 showed an increase in the time period for a complete disappearance of polymer films from 6 to 16 and 30 days, respectively.Guest Editor: Dr. Graham Swift, Rohm & Haas.Paper presented at the Bio/Environmentally Degradable Polymer Society—Second National Meeting, August 19–21, 1993, Chicago, Illinois.     

Modeling Dinophysis in Western Andalucía using an autoregressive hidden Markov model

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - Dinophysis spp. can produce diarrhetic shellfish toxins (DST) including okadaic acid and dinophysistoxins, and some strains can also produce non-diarrheic...