Korrelation meteorologischer und pflanzenph?nologischer Indikatoren des Klimawandels

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Comparison of PM2.5 carbon measurement methods in Hong Kong, China

Samples from Hong Kong, China, were analyzed for organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), and total carbon (TC) by three thermal protocols (low-temperature IMPROVE and high-temperature STN and NIOSH) and two optical monitoring methods: reflectance and transmittance. Good agreement (+/-10%) for TC among the three protocols was observed for sample loadings of 1-55 microg m(-3). The two protocols using a reflectance pyrolysis correction showed best agreement for EC, with <20% differences found for approximately 80% of the samples. Hong Kong has a large diesel fleet, and for some heavily loaded samples the light transmittance was too low for quantitative detection, resulting in large uncertainties in the OC/EC split based on transmittance. Hong Kong experienced OC levels similar to those at US sites, but has much higher EC concentrations. OC/EC ratios range from 2 to 5 at two US sites and from 0.2 to 1.2 at three Hong Kong sites.     

The Adaptive Capacity Wheel: a method to assess the inherent characteristics of institutions to enable the adaptive capacity of society

Climate change potentially brings continuous and unpredictable changes in weather patterns. Consequently, it calls for institutions that promote the adaptive capacity of society and allow society to modify its institutions at a rate commensurate with the rate of environmental change. Institutions, traditionally conservative and reactive, will now have to support social actors to proactively respond through planned processes and deliberate steps, but also through cherishing and encouraging spontaneous and autonomous change, as well as allowing for institutional redesign. This paper addresses the question: How can the inherent characteristics of institutions to stimulate the capacity of society to adapt to climate change from local through to national level be assessed? On the basis of a literature review and several brainstorm sessions, this paper presents six dimensions: Variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources and fair governance. These dimensions and their 22 criteria form the Adaptive Capacity Wheel. This wheel can help academics and social actors to assess if institutions stimulate the adaptive capacity of society to respond to climate change; and to focus on whether and how institutions need to be redesigned. This paper also briefly demonstrates the application of this Adaptive Capacity Wheel to different institutions.     

Safe betting: males help dull females only when they raise high-quality offspring

In evolutionary biology, whether parents should enhance or reduce parental care according to mate ornamentation is a subject of great debate. However, the evolution of female ornaments can shed light on this question. In theory, female ornamentation should be traded off against fecundity and thus cannot be wholly informative to males without a direct indication of fecundity. Hence, direct cues of offspring quality should affect the relationship between male investment and female ornamentation. Under this hypothesis, we manipulated two direct cues of offspring quality (egg size and color) after first egg laying in the blue-footed booby and registered male incubation patterns. In this species, foot color is a dynamic signal of current condition and in females is traded off with egg size. We found that males spent more time incubating when paired with dull females but only in nests with large eggs. Males also spent less time incubating small dull eggs. Results indicate that egg size, a direct cue of reproductive value, affected the relationship between male effort and female ornamentation. Males may be willing to help females that have invested in offspring at the expense of ornamentation, which suggests compensation when females are in low condition. Another possibility is that males relax their effort when paired with highly ornamented and fecund females because they have high parenting abilities. Our findings suggest that the information conveyed by female ornaments may depend on direct cues of fecundity. Results also highlight that parental decisions are complex, modulated by a combination of information sources.     

Separating selection by diurnal and nocturnal pollinators on floral display and spur length in Gymnadenia conopsea

Most plants attract multiple flower visitors that may vary widely in their effectiveness as pollinators. Floral evolution is expected to reflect interactions with the most important pollinators, but few studies have quantified the contribution of different pollinators to current selection on floral traits. To compare selection mediated by diurnal and nocturnal pollinators on floral display and spur length in the rewarding orchid Gymnadenia conopsea, we manipulated the environment by conducting supplemental hand-pollinations and selective pollinator exclusions in two populations in central Norway. In both populations, the exclusion of diurnal pollinators significantly reduced seed production compared to open pollination, whereas the exclusion of nocturnal pollinators did not. There was significant selection on traits expected to influence pollinator attraction and pollination efficiency in both the diurnal and nocturnal pollination treatment. The relative strength of selection among plants exposed to diurnal and nocturnal visitors varied among traits and populations, but the direction of selection was consistent. The results suggest that diurnal pollinators are more important than nocturnal pollinators for seed production in the study populations, but that both categories contribute to selection on floral morphology. The study illustrates how experimental manipulations can link specific categories of pollinators to observed selection on floral traits, and thus improve our understanding of how species interactions shape patterns of selection.     

Snorkelling and trampling in shallow-water fringing reefs: risk assessment and proposed management strategy

Shallow reefs (reef flats <1.5 m) in the northern Red Sea are impacted by growing tourism that includes swimmers, snorkellers and reef walkers but have largely been neglected in past studies. We selected a fringing reef along the lagoon of Dahab (Sinai, Egypt) as a model for a management strategy. Point-intercept line transects were used to determine substrate composition, coral community and condition, and the coral damage index (CDI) was applied. Approximately 84% of the coral colonies showed signs of damage such as breakage, partial mortality or algal overgrowth, especially affecting the most frequent coral genus Acropora. Questionnaires were used to determine the visitors' socio-economic background and personal attitudes regarding snorkelling, SCUBA-diving and interest in visiting a prospective snorkelling trail. Experiencing nature (97%) was by far the strongest motivation, and interest in further education about reef ecology and skill training was high. Less experienced snorkellers and divers--the target group for further education and skill training--were those most prepared to financially support such a trail. We therefore recommend a guided underwater snorkelling trail and restricting recreational use to a less sensitive 'ecotourism zone' while protecting the shallow reef flat. Artificial structures can complete the trail and offer the opportunity to snorkel over deeper areas at unfavourable tide or wind conditions. This approach provides a strategy for the management and conservation of shallow-water reefs, which are facing increasing human impact here and elsewhere.     

Biliverdin-based egg coloration is enhanced by carotenoid supplementation

Avian eggshell color is remarkably variable among and within species and its possible function has long been controversial. Female birds use biliverdin pigment to color their eggs blue and green. Although evidence is accumulating that blue-green eggshell coloration is costly to produce, the exact mechanisms underlying its expression are little studied. Biliverdin pigment is involved in important maintenance functions such as immune and antioxidant defenses and shows similar properties to carotenoid pigments. Carotenoids play a role as immunoenhancers and have the potential to ameliorate the impact of oxidative processes, although their antioxidant function could be minor for some bird species. Important life-history components can be limited by carotenoid availability, including sexual displays and fecundity. Here we explored if biliverdin-based eggshell pigmentation was affected by carotenoid availability in a seabird, by performing a carotenoid supplementation experiment in female blue-footed boobies (Sula nebouxii) after laying their first egg. In this species, blue eggshell color is associated with incubation patterns, and carotenoid availability affects the crucial trade-off between female foot ornamentation and fecundity. We found that under natural conditions, there was a decline in eggshell color with laying order, suggesting pigment limitation for females. However, carotenoid-supplemented females had enhanced second egg coloration compared to controls, and the color increase was independent of their previous pigment allocation to the first egg. Our results suggest that biliverdin-based eggshell coloration is costly to produce and can be alleviated by current carotenoid availability.     

Validating an evidence-based, self-rated fall risk questionnaire (FRQ) for older adults

Background

Falls are a common, serious, and often unrecognized problem facing older adults. The objective of this study was to provide an initial clinical and statistical validation for a public health strategy of fall risk self-assessment by older adults using a Fall Risk Questionnaire (FRQ).

Methods

Adults age 65 + (n = 40) were recruited at a Los Angeles Veterans Affairs (VA) medical facility and at a local assisted living facility. Participants completed the FRQ self-assessment and results were compared to a “gold standard” of a clinical evaluation of risks using the American/British Geriatrics Society guidelines to assess independent predictors of falls: history of previous falls, fear of falling, gait/balance, muscle weakness, incontinence, sensation and proprioception, depression, vision, and medications. For the comparison, we used an iterative statistical approach, weighing items based on relative risk.

Results

There was strong agreement between the FRQ and clinical evaluation (kappa = .875, p < .0001). Individual item kappa values ranged from .305-.832. After dropping one FRQ item (vision risk) because of inadequate agreement with the clinical evaluation (kappa = .139, p = .321), the final FRQ had good concurrent validity.

Conclusions

The FRQ goes beyond existing screening tools in that it is based on both evidence and clinical acceptability and has been initially validated with clinical examination data. A larger validation with longitudinal follow-up should determine the actual strength of the FRQ in predicting future falls.     

Confronting Management Challenges in Highly Uncertain Natural Resource Systems: a Robustness–Vulnerability Trade-off Approach

This paper presents a framework for the study of policy implementation in highly uncertain natural resource systems in which uncertainty cannot be characterized by probability distributions. We apply the framework to parametric uncertainty in the traditional Gordon–Schaefer model of a fishery to illustrate how performance can be sacrificed (traded-off) for reduced sensitivity and hence increased robustness, with respect to model parameter uncertainty. With sufficient data, our robustness–vulnerability analysis provides tools to discuss policy options. When less data are available, it can be used to inform the early stages of a learning process. Several key insights emerge from this analysis: (1) the classic optimal control policy can be very sensitive to parametric uncertainty, (2) even mild robustness properties are difficult to achieve for the simple Gordon–Schaefer model, and (3) achieving increased robustness with respect to some parameters (e.g., biological parameters) necessarily results in increased sensitivity (decreased robustness) with respect to other parameters (e.g., economic parameters). We thus illustrate fundamental robustness–vulnerability trade-offs and the limits to robust natural resource management. Finally, we use the framework to explore the effects of infrequent sampling and delays on policy performance.