Multi-hazard, multi-infrastructure, economic scenario analysis

Over the past 10 years, the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) has conducted over 150 detailed multi-hazard, multi-infrastructure scenario analyses of a wide range of man-made and natural disasters. Using a model-based implementation of the Department of Homeland Security risk management framework, NISAC analyzes scenarios ranging from extreme-event situational awareness to long-term strategic policy for improved homeland security and resilience to these events. This article describes the essential elements of the NISAC scenario analysis process, the toolkit of subject-matter expertise and models used, with a particular focus on the economics component. An example set of Hurricane Katrina economic-analysis results is used to illustrate basic elements of NISAC economics scenario analysis.     

History of atmospheric environment

There have been great transitions in the science of air pollution and science publishing since the journal began as the International Journal of Air Pollution in 1958. Atmospheric Environment witnessed the increased understanding of smog photochemistry in the late 1950s and the emerging fears of ozone depletion in the 1970s. The journal has grown, but not without the need to change and occasionally fragment only to reintegrate at a later date. At 9000 pages a year it represents an enormous editorial task that has had to be undertaken by more professional offices. This transition has been helped through the development of electronic tools, but the editorial offices strive to retain their personal relationship with authors and reviewers. An enhanced international perspective recognises the widening contributions made by scientists beyond Europe and North America.     

A Case Study of Landholder Attitudes and Behaviour Toward the Conservation of Renosterveld,a Critically Endangered Vegetation Type in Cape Floral Kingdom,South Africa

The attitudes and behaviours of private landholders toward the conservation of a highly transformed and critically endangered habitat, Overberg Coastal Renosterveld (OCR) (a grassy shrubland of the Cape Floral Region, South Africa) are described. Personal, semistructured interviews were conducted with landholders, representing 40 properties in the Overberg region, on topics such as management and utilisation of OCR, the depth of their knowledge of its conservation importance, what they perceive its value to be, and the extent of their willingness to conserve it. General attitudes toward conservation incentives and provincial conservation authorities were also investigated. Farmers more willing to conserve were younger, did not necessarily have a better education, and owned larger farms (>500 ha) with a greater amount of remnant renosterveld (>300 ha) than those less willing to conserve. Attitudes toward the OCR were largely negative, related to associated problem plants and animals and the fact that it is believed not to be economically advantageous to retain it. However, farmers are of the opinion that provision of incentives and increased extension support will provide practical positive inducements for conservation. Landholder education is paramount to prevent further transformation of critically endangered habitats. The success of private-conservation programs depends on the attitudes of landowners toward (1) the particular habitat or species to be conserved (which can vary depending on the type of land use practised and the associated benefits and disadvantages of that habitat type); (2) the conservation agency or extension officers responsible for that area; and (3) willingness of landowners to participate in a conservation program, which is influenced by landowner age, farm size, and the amount of natural habitat left to conserve.     

Feeding by larvae of intertidal invertebrates: assessing their position in pelagic food webs

One of the leading determinants of the structure and dynamics of marine populations is the rate of arrival of new individuals to local sites. While physical transport processes play major roles in delivering larvae to the shore, these processes become most important after larvae have survived the perils of life in the plankton, where they usually suffer great mortality. The lack of information regarding larval feeding makes it difficult to assess the effects of food supply on larval survival, or the role larvae may play in nearshore food webs. Here, we examine the spectrum of food sizes and food types consumed by the larvae of two intertidal barnacle species and of the predatory gastropod Concholepas concholepas. We conducted replicated experiments in which larvae were exposed to the food size spectrum (phytoplankton, microprotozoan and autotrophic picoplankton) found in nearshore waters in central Chile. Results show that barnacle nauplii and gastropod veligers are omnivorous grazers, incorporating significant fractions of heterotrophs in their diets. In accordance with their feeding mechanisms and body size, barnacle nauplii were able to feed on autotrophic picoplankton (<5 microm) and did not consume the largest phytoplankton cells, which made the bulk of phytoplankton biomass in spring-summer blooms. Balanoid nauplii exhibited higher ingestion rates than the smaller-bodied chthamaloid larvae. Newly hatched C. concholepas larvae also consumed picoplankton cells, while competent larvae of this species ingested mostly the largest phytoplankton cells and heterotrophic protozoans. Results suggest that persistent changes in the structure of pelagic food webs can have important effects on the species-specific food availability for invertebrate larvae, which can result in large-scale differences in recruitment rates of a given species, and in the relative recruitment success of the different species that make up benthic communities.     

Conflicting demands on detoxification pathways influence how common brushtail possums choose their diets

Most herbivores eat more and survive better when they have access to a variety of foods. One explanation involves the detoxification of plant secondary metabolites (PSMs). By feeding from a variety of plants that contain different classes of PSMs, animals can use multiple detoxification pathways and presumably consume more food. Although popular, this theory is difficult to test because it requires knowledge of the detoxification pathways of each PSM in the diet. We established that common brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) use various combinations of oxidation, hydrolysis, and conjugation with glucuronic acid (GA) or glycine to detoxify six PSMs. Compared to their ingestion of a single PSM, possums ate more when offered a choice between two diets containing PSMs that require apparently independent detoxification pathways (benzoate and 1,8-cineole, benzoate and p-cymene, benzoate and orcinol, benzoate and salicin, or orcinol and 1,8-cineole). However, possums still did not eat as much of these diets as they did of a basal diet free of PSMs. This suggests that detoxification pathways are never independent, but are separated instead by degrees. In contrast, possums offered a choice of two PSMs that require competing detoxification pathways (1,8-cineole and p-cymene, 1,8-cineole and salicin, or orcinol and salicin) ate no more than when offered diets containing one of the compounds. There was an exception: even though both rutin and orcinol are detoxified via conjugation with GA, the feeding behavior of possums did not suggest competition for detoxification pathways. This implies that the supply of GA is not limiting. This study provides the first convincing evidence that herbivorous mammals can eat more by selecting mixed diets with a diversity of PSMs that make full use of their detoxification potential. It also emphasizes that other behavioral and physiological factors, such as transient food aversions, influence feeding behavior.     

Nutrient cycling by fish supports relatively more primary production as lake productivity increases

Animals can be important in nutrient cycling in particular ecosystems, but few studies have examined how this importance varies along environmental gradients. In this study we quantified the nutrient cycling role of an abundant detritivorous fish species, the gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum), in reservoir ecosystems along a gradient of ecosystem productivity. Gizzard shad feed mostly on sediment detritus and excrete sediment-derived nutrients into the water column, thereby mediating a cross-habitat translocation of nutrients to phytoplankton. We quantified nitrogen and phosphorus cycling (excretion) rates of gizzard shad, as well as nutrient demand by phytoplankton, in seven lakes over a four-year period (16 lake-years). The lakes span a gradient of watershed land use (the relative amounts of land used for agriculture vs. forest) and productivity. As the watersheds of these lakes became increasingly dominated by agricultural land, primary production rates, lake trophic state indicators (total phosphorus and chlorophyll concentrations), and nutrient flux through gizzard shad populations all increased. Nutrient cycling by gizzard shad supported a substantial proportion of primary production in these ecosystems, and this proportion increased as watershed agriculture (and ecosystem productivity) increased. In the four productive lakes with agricultural watersheds (>78% agricultural land), gizzard shad supported on average 51% of phytoplankton primary production (range 27-67%). In contrast, in the three relatively unproductive lakes in forested or mixed-land-use watersheds (>47% forest, <52% agricultural land), gizzard shad supported 18% of primary production (range 14-23%). Thus, along a gradient of forested to agricultural landscapes, both watershed nutrient inputs and nutrient translocation by gizzard shad increase, but our data indicate that the importance of nutrient translocation by gizzard shad increases more rapidly. Our results therefore support the hypothesis that watersheds and gizzard shad jointly regulate primary production in reservoir ecosystems.     

Chemical Partitioning to Foliage: The Contribution and Legacy of Davide Calamari

- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/espr2006.01.002 Background Davide Calamari and his colleagues were among the first to appreciate that vegetation could play a key role in determining the fate and effects of organic contaminants. They conducted pioneering experiments to investigate the uptake of contaminants by plants from the atmosphere and they sought to model the observed phenomena. In the nearly two decades since there has been a marked increase in understanding of these phenomena as a result of both experimental and modelling studies. - Goal. In this study we briefly review our current understanding of chemical partitioning between foliage and air. A model in both fugacity and concentration format is described, based on that of Tolls and McLachlan (1994), in which the leaf is treated as consisting of two layers, a waxy cuticle with an underlying 'reservoir' layer, the cuticle being surrounded by an air boundary layer and containing stomata that provide direct access from the air to the 'reservoir'. The model quantifies the dynamic penetration of a defined chemical into a defined leaf as a function of time. Main Features The model is applied for illustrative purposes to a hypothetical but typical leaf for a set of illustrative chemicals to demonstrate the effect of changes in physical-chemical properties and leaf characteristics. Discussion The results are compared qualitatively with a variety of field and laboratory studies of foliage uptake and clearance of chemicals. Conclusion It is concluded that the model yields results that are generally consistent with observations. It is suggested that with appropriate parameterisation and validation, the model can contribute to an improved understanding of the process of foliage uptake from the atmosphere and to the development of an improved predictive capability.