Performance of ANFIS versus MLP-NN dissolved oxygen prediction models in water quality monitoring

We discuss the accuracy and performance of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in training and prediction of dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations. The model was used to analyze historical data generated through continuous monitoring of water quality parameters at several stations on the Johor River to predict DO concentrations. Four water quality parameters were selected for ANFIS modeling, including temperature, pH, nitrate (NO₃) concentration, and ammoniacal nitrogen concentration (NH₃-NL). Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effects of the input parameters. The inputs with the greatest effect were those related to oxygen content (NO₃) or oxygen demand (NH₃-NL). Temperature was the parameter with the least effect, whereas pH provided the lowest contribution to the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the model, three statistical indices were used: the coefficient of determination (R ²), the mean absolute prediction error, and the correlation coefficient. The performance of the ANFIS model was compared with an artificial neural network model. The ANFIS model was capable of providing greater accuracy, particularly in the case of extreme events.     

Application of generalized link functions in developing accident prediction models

The Bayesian Poisson–Gamma hierarchy, leading to the negative binomial distribution, has been the standard practice in developing accident prediction models. To linearize the relationship connecting the mean of the negative binomial distribution to relevant covariates, a canonical log link has traditionally been used. Typically, little information is available regarding the choice of a particular link. To avoid link misspecification, it is proposed to nest the canonical log link model within a generalized link family and subsequently use the full Bayes method for parameter estimation, performance evaluation and inference. The proposed approach was applied to a sample of accident and traffic volume data corresponding to 99 intersections in the city of Edmonton, Alberta. The results showed that both the generalized link model and the traditional canonical link model provided adequate fit to the data. However, the Bayes factor provided a clear statistical support for the use of the generalized link approach. A procedure for link validation is also described. It allows the users (e.g., road authorities) to consider the changes in predicted accidents that will result if a generalized link is used instead of a canonical link. If a certain maximal change is tolerated, the canonical link can be used to analyze the data; otherwise the generalized link is worth the extra efforts and should be adopted. When compared with the traditional approach, the generalized link model was found to predict a lower number of accidents whenever there is a heavy traffic at the major approach, especially if combined with light flow on the minor approach. The paper concludes by identifying out areas for further research.     

Detection of Human Enteric Viruses in Freshwater from European Countries

The transmission of water-borne pathogens typically occurs by a faecal–oral route, through inhalation of aerosols, or by direct or indirect contact with contaminated water. Previous molecular-based studies have identified viral particles of zoonotic and human nature in surface waters. Contaminated water can lead to human health issues, and the development of rapid methods for the detection of pathogenic microorganisms is a valuable tool for the prevention of their spread. The aims of this work were to determine the presence and identity of representative human pathogenic enteric viruses in water samples from six European countries by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR) and to develop two quantitative PCR methods for Adenovirus 41 and Mammalian Orthoreoviruses. A 2-year survey showed that Norovirus, Mammalian Orthoreovirus and Adenoviruses were the most frequently identified enteric viruses in the sampled surface waters. Although it was not possible to establish viability and infectivity of the viruses considered, the detectable presence of pathogenic viruses may represent a potential risk for human health. The methodology developed may aid in rapid detection of these pathogens for monitoring quality of surface waters.     

Trends in landings of fish species potentially affected by climate change in Portuguese fisheries

Fisheries are an important source of food, with a high economic value and social significance. The present worrying situation of the world fisheries is the result of the interaction between different factors (e.g. climatic variations, natural oscillations, technological innovation), but the greatest challenges are overfishing and climate change. The species richness of the Portuguese coast is generally higher than that found in northern Europe and similar to that of the Mediterranean, since many species have their southern or northern distribution limits along the Portuguese coast. The zoogeographic importance of this latitudinal area has long been recognized, representing the transition between north-eastern Atlantic warm-temperate and cold-temperate regions, which makes the Portuguese coast an area of great sensitivity to the detection of climate change. Official landing data for commercial species that have the Portuguese coast as their distribution limit were analysed together with sea surface temperature for the period of 1927–2011. In general, landings of species with affinity for temperate waters presented a decreasing trend, whereas species with affinity for subtropical/tropical waters showed an increasing trend. These variations were associated with variation in temperature: lower landings of temperate species occurred mainly in warm years, whereas landings of subtropical/tropical species presented an opposite trend, with higher landings in warm years. Preparing for the impacts of climate change is crucial for the sustainability of fisheries. Management should take into consideration information about environmental factors that affect species distribution and abundance.     

A Bayesian approach for incorporating uncertainty and data worth in environmental projects

A data worth model is presented for the analysis of alternative sampling schemes in a special project where decisions have to be made under uncertainty. This model is part of a comprehensive risk analysis algorthm with the acronym BUDA. The statistical framework in BUDA is Bayesian in nature and incorporates both parameter uncertainty and natural variability. In BUDA a project iterates among the analyst, the decision maker, and the field work. As part of the analysis, a data worth model calculates the value of a data campaign before the actual field work, thereby allowing the identification of an optimum data collection scheme. A goal function which depicts the objectives of a project is used to discriminate among different alternatives. A Latin hypercube sampling scheme is used to propagate parameter uncertainties to the goal function. In our example the uncertain parameters are the parameters which describe the geostatistical properties of saturated hydraulic conductivity in a Molasse environment. Our results indicated that failing to account for parameter uncertainty produces unrealistically optimistic results, while ignoring the spatial structure can lead to an inefficient use of the existing data.     

Three-dimensional ultrasound in evaluating the fetus

In recent years three-dimensional (3D) ultrasound has made a place in clinical practice and has become a major field of research in obstetrics. In this article we will review the diagnostic performance of the most widely used 3D ultrasound applications in the assessment of fetal anomalies, explain the technique to gain correct 3D images and offer some practical advice for their efficient use. Examples are given to demonstrate the applicability and vividness of 3D in daily routine. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The analytical framework of water and armed conflict: a focus on the 2006 Summer War between Israel and Lebanon

This paper develops an analytical framework to investigate the relationship between water and armed conflict, and applies it to the ‘Summer War’ of 2006 between Israel and Lebanon (Hezbollah). The framework broadens and deepens existing classifications by assessing the impact of acts of war as indiscriminate or targeted, and evaluating them in terms of international norms and law, in particular International Humanitarian Law (IHL). In the case at hand, the relationship is characterised by extensive damage in Lebanon to drinking water infrastructure and resources. This is seen as a clear violation of the letter and the spirit of IHL, while the partial destruction of more than 50 public water towers compromises water rights and national development goals. The absence of pre‐war environmental baselines makes it difficult to gauge the impact on water resources, suggesting a role for those with first‐hand knowledge of the hostilities to develop a more effective response before, during, and after armed conflict.     

Pollution profile of damodar river sediment in Raniganj-Durgapur industrial belt,West Bengal,India

This paper reports on the pollution profile of Damodar river sediment as obtained from analysis of the river sediment at suitable selected sites in the Raniganj-Durgapur industrial belt, West Bengal, India. The parameters measured include (a) silica, mixed oxide, calcium, magnesium, total water-soluble exchangeable cation and anion, chemical oxygen demand, and (b) some toxic and other elements, such as sodium, potassium, arsenic, cadmium, chromium, mercury, manganese, lead, zinc, cobalt, copper, iron nickel, phosphorus, sulphur, and vanadium. The parameters listed under (a) led to the characterization of the sediment, and those under (b) gave an index of metal pollution of the sediment. The elements were estimated by inductively coupled plasma emission spectrometry.     

Simultaneous Concentration of Enteric Viruses and Protozoan Parasites: A Protocol Based on Tangential Flow Filtration and Adapted to Large Volumes of Surface and Drinking Waters

A filtration system, based on tangential flow filtration (TFF) followed by ultracentrifugation was developed in order to concentrate simultaneously viruses and parasites from large volumes of water. For TFF, no pre-treatment of the membrane is performed but a post-rinsing step using high pH-beef extract-based eluant. Applying our protocol to 20 l of surface waters spiked with vaccinal poliovirus-1, ϕX174 and MS2 bacteriophages resulted in an averaged viral recovery of 75% by TFF and 91% by ultracentrifugation (total viral recovery of 70%). Our protocol was further applied to 31 environmental samples including surface, ground and drinking waters from the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg in order to assess the occurrence of protozoan parasites (Cryptosporidium parvum and Giardia lamblia (oo)cysts), pathogenic viruses (enterovirus, norovirus and adenovirus) and infectious bacteriophages (somatic coliphages and F-specific phages) in these samples. High viral recovery rates of > 70% were confirmed concentrating environmental strains of somatic and F-specific coliphages from non-spiked surface waters. Parasites and enteric viruses were detected in 86 and 40% of the surface waters used for drinking water production, respectively. Infectious bacteriophages were isolated from all surface waters and in two out of seven (29%) groundwaters revealing a susceptibility of the corresponding wells to viral pollution. TFF-based method proved to be efficient for surveying the occurrence of non-bacterial pathogens such as enteric viruses and protozoan parasites in large volumes of environmental waters.     

Glutathione S-transferase cytosolic isoform in the pink-shrimp, Farfantepenaeus brasiliensis, from Conceição Lagoon, Santa Catarina Island, SC, Brazil

Contaminant input into the environment can affect the biochemical responses of exposed organisms. Activity of conjugation enzymes, such as glutathione S-transferase (GST) has been proposed as a biomarker of susceptibility to the presence of potentially damaging xenobiotics. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the activity of total and Pi-class GST in the hepatopancreas of pink-shrimp Farfantepenaeus brasiliensis. The shrimp were caught at a single site at Concei??o Lagoon and transplanted to another site (Canto da Lagoa - CA) in the same lagoon, and to the laboratory (LAB), where they were kept for 15 days. This experiment was carried out in winter 2003 and in summer 2004. Shrimp were sampled before the exposure, at a zero time (t0), and after 15-days at CA site and LAB. The activity of total GST and Pi-isoform were analyzed using CDNB and ethacrynic acid (EA) as substrates, respectively. Shrimp caught in winter showed higher levels of Pi-class GST than those caught in summer, for both t0 and CA groups. Moreover, differences in the activity of this GST isoform between groups were observed only in winter, where the animals from t0 and CA groups presented higher activity when compared to those kept in the laboratory. This difference could be associated either to changes in the contaminant input or to other water quality parameters in this ecosystem. The elevated GST Pi activity observed in the shrimp of both t0 and CA groups sampled in winter could be related to salinity, since it was higher in winter than in summer. We could also suggest a possible association of this finding to a seasonal metabolic variation in this penaeid. If that is the case, one should take into account these alterations when considering the use of this GST isoform as biomarker in F. brasiliensis in environmental monitoring programs.