In the mixed world of predictive biology—Contradiction or support

Statistical prediction is a tool and aim in ecology and wildlife management and conservation. A prediction may either be supported by or contradicted by observations of an unknown set of observations. A contradiction occurs if the prediction is not included within the range of the unknown observations, i.e. the prediction misses the cloud of observations completely. Mixed-effects models, frequently used for statistical assessment of clustered data, carry information needed for calculating the probability of such contradictions. Here we present a new versatile statistic, the probability of contradiction (P (Contra)), that describes how often we would anticipate a new cluster of observations contradicting our predictions. Some benefits of P (Contra) are: (1) easy to calculate and intuitive interpretation, (2) comparability between datasets, (3) inclusion of residual correlation, (4) summary of the multitude of information from mixed models into one statistics, and (5) applicable to local mixed-effect models.     

Differential breeding investment in bridled and non-bridled common guillemots (Uria aalge): morph of the partner matters

Polymorphism is the coexistence of two or more phenotypically distinct and genetically determinate forms in a population and implies a selective balance between the alternative morphs to permanently exist. Common guillemots Uria aalge occur in two genetically distinct morphs—a non-bridled and a bridled—the latter with white eye rings and a well-defined stripe behind the eyes. In this study, we investigated differences between the morphs with regard to reproductive parameters. We used a detailed family-based sample providing data on mother, father, and chick over three breeding seasons. The mating between morphs was random but pure non-bridled and pure bridled pairs produced smaller chicks at age 15 days than the two mixed pair compositions. Body mass of the adults showed much the same pattern; pure pairs having lower body mass than mixed pairs. There were no differences between the two morphs in reproductive parameters without considering the morph of the partner. This suggests that reproductive decisions in some way not only depend on the morph but also on the tactic of the partner. Different reproductive strategies between morph family groups as found in this study may contribute to the understanding of the existence of a balanced polymorphism in common guillemots. The overall breeding conditions during the years of this study were good. However, over time in a variable environment, we suggest that tactics of different family groups may have different success stabilizing the frequency of non-bridled and bridled birds over time.     

Organotin compounds in a Norwegian fjord. A comparison of concentration levels in semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs), blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) and water samples

Monitoring concentrations of organic pollutants in water is essential to predict effects and to initiate preventive steps. Results from the analysis of water samples provide snapshots of a situation, whereas monitoring using semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) provides a time-integrated picture of the concentration of pollutants in water. In this investigation, SPMDs, caged mussels and water samples were used to monitor the levels of organotin compounds in the inner Oslofjord, Norway, over a period of 12 weeks. The work-up procedure for the analysis of organotins was optimised, focusing on the clean-up procedure using gel permeation chromatography (GPC). By using several GPC columns, as much as 1 g of triolein could be employed. This reduces the background emission noise on the baseline, leading to an improvement in the detection limits. The main uptake of tributyltin (TBT) in mussels and SPMDs levelled off after 14 days. A longer uptake period was indicated for SPMDs at stations with a high water concentration of TBT (5-10 ng Sn L(-1)) compared with those with a low water concentration of TBT (approximately 1 ng Sn L(-1)). A concentration gradient was observed for water, SPMDs and mussels from the innermost station close to Oslo harbour to the station further out in the fjord, indicating that the three analysed matrices give approximately the same pollution gradient. The bioconcentration factor (BCF) for TBT in mussels was in the range 12-14 000 (wet weight) and, for SPMDs, 10-12 000 (fat). A good correlation with the TBT water concentrations was achieved within a period of 14-30 days of exposure for mussels and after 2-3 months for SPMDs. A good correlation was also found between the TBT concentration in SPMDs and mussels at the end of the experiment. SPMDs can therefore be used to predict concentrations of TBT in both water and mussels.     

Organotins in marine mammals and seabirds from Norwegian territory

An increasing number of studies indicate that marine mammals and some seabirds are exposed to organotins. However, results from northern and Arctic areas are few. Here results from analysis of tributyltin (TBT), dibutyltin (DBT), monobutyltin (MBT), triphenyltin (TPhT), diphenyltin (DPhT) and monophenyltin (MPhT) in harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena), common seal (Phoca vitulina), ringed seal (Phoca hispida) and glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus) from Norwegian territory are presented. Relatively high concentrations of DBT, TBT and MBT were observed in muscle, kidney and liver from harbour porpoises caught in northern Norway in 1988, just before restrictions on the use of tributyltin (TBT)(mainly on small boats) were introduced in several European countries. The concentrations in harbour porpoise muscle tissue were reduced significantly 11 years later, possibly as a result of the introduced restrictions. Considerably lower concentrations of butyltins were observed in the seals compared to porpoises. The lowest levels of organotins were found in ringed seals from Spitsbergen, where only traces of dibutyltin (DBT) and monobutyltin (MBT) were observed. Traces of DBT and MBT were also found in some individual glaucous gulls from Bear Island. The sum of the degradation products MBT and DBT in liver samples from all analysed species were generally higher than TBT itself. Triphenyltin (TPhT) was observed in all porpoise samples and in livers of common seals. Also the sum of the degradation products MPhT and DPhT in liver samples from porpoise and common seals were higher than TPhT. No traces of phenyltins were found in ringed seals from Spitsbergen or in glaucous gulls from Bear Island. The limited data available indicate low to moderate exposure to organotins in northern areas (Spitsbergen and Bear Island). Marine mammals are however more exposed further south along the Norwegian Coast.     

Farm Animal Welfare Influences on Markets and Consumer Attitudes in Latin America: The Cases of Mexico,Chile and Brazil

In recent years, animal welfare has become an important element of sustainable production that has evolved along with the transformation of animal production systems. Consumer attitudes towards farm animal welfare are changing around the world, especially at emerging markets of Asia, Africa and Latin America. Survey-based research on consumer attitudes towards farm animal welfare has increased. However, the geographical coverage of studies on consumer attitudes and perceptions about farm animal welfare has mostly been limited to Europe, and North America. Until now, Latin American consumers’ attitudes towards animal welfare have not been well studied. Despite the fact that Mexico, Chile and Brazil belong to the same region (according to international organizations), there are marked differences between these countries in terms of their economical and geographical characteristics among other factors. Those differences potentially have an impact on consumer attitudes towards animal welfare and livestock production systems in general. Given the evidence from the literature review, it seems advisable that Latin American producers and food industry who engage in animal welfare-enhancing practices should clearly label their products with information on the type of husbandry system to reach those consumers who want to make an informed choice. Therefore, there are some aspects that need to be studied and cannot be worked separately in order to promote and understand consumer attitudes towards dairy and beef systems, such as geography, economic development, and politics.     

Genetic Variability in Swayne's Hartebeest, an Endangered Antelope of Ethiopia

Abstract: Swayne's hartebeest ( Alcelaphus buselaphus swaynei ) is an endangered antelope that survives in four or five relict populations in Ethiopia. We examined the two main populations (Senkele and Nechisar) for mitochondrial (D-loop) and nuclear (microsatellite) variability in order to measure levels of genetic variation within the subspecies and degree of differentiation between populations. For comparison, we examined samples from a large population of red hartebeest ( Alcelaphus buselaphus caama ). Both swaynei and caama exhibited high levels of variation. There was significant differentiation between the populations of swaynei at Senkele and Nechisar, and gene diversity in Nechisar, the smaller of the two populations, was significantly lower than that in Senkele. Many mitochondrial haplotypes and microsatellite alleles present at high frequencies among the Senkele individuals were missing in Nechisar, suggesting that the translocation of animals from Senkele undertaken in 1974 did not contribute notably to the gene pool in Nechisar. Subsamples taken from Senkele in 1988 and 1995 showed a significant change in allele frequencies, a change that probably can be attributed to a massive population decline during this period. We recommend that both populations be protected in situ to maintain as much as possible of the diversity that exists within the taxon and that a breeding program be established. In spite of the earlier unsuccessful attempt, we argue that translocation of animals for enhancement of population size as well as genetic variation in Nechisar should be considered.     

Chernobyl radioactivity persists in reindeer

Transfer of 137Cs in the soil-plant/lichen-reindeer food chain was studied in central (?stre Namdal) and southern Norway (V?g?) during 2000-2003. Reindeer from these areas have been continuously subjected to countermeasure application since the 1986 Chernobyl accident. In both areas no decline in 137Cs concentrations was detectable in reindeer slaughtered in autumn since 1995, or in reindeer slaughtered in winter since 1998-1999. Seasonal differences in 137Cs concentrations in reindeer have been less pronounced in recent years, with 137Cs concentrations occasionally higher in autumn than in winter. Soil-to-plant 137Cs transfer was significantly higher in ?stre Namdal than in V?g?. Climatic influences on lichen growth and abundance, and on soil properties that influence the availability of 137Cs for plant uptake, are hypothesized to have a larger impact on long-term transfer of radiocaesium in the soil-plant/lichen-reindeer food chain than has been previously observed.     

Concentrations of 137Cs in lynx (Lynx lynx) in relation to prey choice

Concentrations of (137)Cs were determined in 747 lynxes killed in Norway during the period 1986-2001. Highly variable (137)Cs concentrations and aggregated transfer coefficient values were observed, probably caused by variable (137)Cs concentrations in prey and the lynx's extensive home ranges and roaming distances. Adult lynxes had higher (137)Cs concentrations than sub-adults, and lynxes killed in regions with extensive reindeer grazing areas were more contaminated than others. A model with (137)Cs deposition density, the year lynxes were killed, age, and extent of reindeer grazing area accounted for 50% of the variability in observed (137)Cs concentrations. The analyses were equivocal regarding the influence of stomach content on (137)Cs concentrations in lynx muscle, i.e., on the lynx's specialization in prey species. Gender was not significant. Information on caesium retention in lynx and better estimates of deposition densities in lynxes' home ranges are important for further elucidation of factors influencing (137)Cs contamination in lynxes.     

Pledges for climate mitigation: the effects of the Copenhagen accord on CO2 emissions and mitigation costs

The UN Framework Convention of Climate Change 15th Conference of the Parties Copenhagen Accord has been followed up by national pledges of greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the year 2020 without specifying measures to enforce actions. As a consequence, the capacity of parties to fulfil their obligations is of basic interest. This article outlines the effects of full compliance with pledges on greenhouse gas emissions, economic growth, and trade. The study is based on the global computable general equilibrium model global responses to anthropogenic changes in the environment (GRACE) distinguishing between fossil and non-fossil energy use. Global emissions from fossil fuels in 2020 turn out to be 15 % lower than in a business as usual scenario and 3 % below the global emissions from fossil fuels in 2005. China and India increase their emissions to 1 % and 5 % above business as usual levels in 2020. India and Russia increase their net export of steel corresponding to around 30 and 45 % of their production levels in 2020. In spite of some leakage of energy intensive production also to China, we find that structural change remains the dominant factor behind the rapid reduction of CO₂ emission intensity in China towards 2020.     

TRANSPORT CHARACTERISTICS OF PHOSPHORUS IN CHANNELIZED AND MEANDERING STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Comparisons were made between rates of movement of orthophosphate in a canal and a meandering stream. The meander system had greater algal and macrophyte phosphate uptake rates, and lower plankton and sediment release rates compared to the canal. Chemical precipitation and direct rainfall influences on orthophosphate movement were insignificant relative to other terms. The major source of phosphorus to both systems was from upland runoff. The impact of this source was greater on the meandering system due to the smaller channel volume. When secondary effects of meandering were considered such as marsh inundation, the net orthophosphate movement within the meandering channel was less than that for the canal; due to the lower concentrations of phosphorus in marsh effluent waters. Field experiments were conducted to compare the longitudinal dispersion coefficient between a canal and meandering river system; the meandering stream had a dispersion coefficient over 17 times that measured for the canal. Rates of orthophosphate movement were combined into a single mass transport equation, and a numerical solution was obtained. Internal river and canal channel processes were overshadowed by external point source loadings.