Uncertainty in integrated coastal zone management

Uncertainty plays a major role in Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). A large part of this uncertainty is connected to our lack of knowledge of the integrated functioning of the coastal system and to the increasing need to act in a pro-active way. Increasingly, coastal managers are forced to take decisions based on information which is surrounded by uncertainties. Different types of uncertainty can be identified and the role of uncertainty in decision making, scientific uncertainty and model uncertainty in ICZM is discussed. The issue of spatial variability, which is believed to be extremely important in ICZM and represents a primary source of complexity and uncertainty, is also briefly introduced. Some principles for complex model building are described as an approach to handle, in a balanced way, the available data, information, knowledge and experience. The practical method of sensitivity analysis is then introduced as a method for a posterior evaluation of uncertainty in simulation models. We conclude by emphasising the need for the definition of an analysis plan in order to handle model uncertainty in a balanced way during the decision making process.     

Chemical composition of water conditioned by crowdedMoina macrocopa (Crustacea: Cladocera)

The chemical composition of water conditioned by colonies ofMoina macrocopa and involved in the regulation of their life cycle was analyzed in comparison with water samples from natural water bodies. Dechlorinated tap water was used as the control medium. The results showed that metabolism of crustaceans leads to an increase in the concentrations of phosphorus and nitrogen in all forms, the appearance of protein and carbohydrate fractions, and changes in the composition of lipid fractions in the water conditioned by their colonies. The contents of all organic components are very low, which makes their identification difficult. Concentrations of substances identified in the conditioned water do not exceed those occurring in nature.     

Gradient analysis of the chrogenetic structure of lowland and highland scotch pine populations

Gradients of genetic distances (GGDs) between 26 adjacent cenopopulations of Scotch pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) along the transects through the distinct landscape-ecotopic isolation borders were analyzed graphically. The results made it possible to reveal and quantitatively estimate gradients and borders of gene-pool structural patterns in populations of this species in the central part of Northern Eurasia. In lowland areas, the most distinct borders were found between pine populations growing on dry lands and bogs (Pineta sphagnosa) in the forest zone of the Transural region, as well as between the Arakaragaiskii and Amankaragaiskii island pine forests in the steppe zone (Northern Turgai). In highland areas (the Urals and the Carpathians), the greatest GGDs were observed between low-mountain (about 600 m above sea level) and middle-mountain (850–900 m) populations. Analysis of GGDs is a promising gene-geographic method for determining population borders and studying the chorogenetic structure of species.     

Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

The Effect of Vaccinium vitis-idaea on Properties of Mountain-Meadow Soil under Alpine Lichen Heath

Russian Journal of Ecology - Abstract—The study of the effect of mycorrhiza symbiosis on the transformation of carbon and nitrogen compounds in soils is important in view of the necessity to...     

Temporal and Spatial Variations of Phytoplankton Community Structure in Lake Erhai,a Chinese Plateau Lake,with Reference to Environmental Factors

Russian Journal of Ecology - Temporal and spatial variations of phytoplankton community in Lake Erhai were investigated from May 2010 to April 2011. A total of 124 species belonging to 8 phyla and...     

Factors of Dynamics of Plankton Crustacean Communities under Eutrophic Conditions

Russian Journal of Ecology - It has been shown that the main drivers of the dynamics of cladoceran and copepod abundances can be predators (fish), the quantity and/or quality of food in terms of...     

Energy use,blue water footprint,and greenhouse gas emissions for current food consumption patterns and dietary recommendations in the US

This article measures the changes in energy use, blue water footprint, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with shifting from current US food consumption patterns to three dietary scenarios, which are based, in part, on the 2010 USDA Dietary Guidelines (US Department of Agriculture and US Department of Health and Human Services in Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2010, 7th edn, US Government Printing Office, Washington, 2010). Amidst the current overweight and obesity epidemic in the USA, the Dietary Guidelines provide food and beverage recommendations that are intended to help individuals achieve and maintain healthy weight. The three dietary scenarios we examine include (1) reducing Caloric intake levels to achieve “normal” weight without shifting food mix, (2) switching current food mix to USDA recommended food patterns, without reducing Caloric intake, and (3) reducing Caloric intake levels and shifting current food mix to USDA recommended food patterns, which support healthy weight. This study finds that shifting from the current US diet to dietary Scenario 1 decreases energy use, blue water footprint, and GHG emissions by around 9 %, while shifting to dietary Scenario 2 increases energy use by 43 %, blue water footprint by 16 %, and GHG emissions by 11 %. Shifting to dietary Scenario 3, which accounts for both reduced Caloric intake and a shift to the USDA recommended food mix, increases energy use by 38 %, blue water footprint by 10 %, and GHG emissions by 6 %. These perhaps counterintuitive results are primarily due to USDA recommendations for greater Caloric intake of fruits, vegetables, dairy, and fish/seafood, which have relatively high resource use and emissions per Calorie.