Attributable risk, probability of causation, assigned shares, and uncertainty

Calculations of attributable risks, probabilities of causation, and assigned shares attracted increasing interest recently, particularly since the enactment of the Orphan Drug Act. Although efforts have been limited mostly to radiation as the toxic agent, the concept is general to all toxicants. In this paper, the systematic and random uncertainties in calculations of assigned shares are reviewed globally, and possibilities for their reduction are discussed. In addition, an algebraic study is made of the influence of random uncertainties in the input parameters on the random error of the assigned shares. Three dose-effect functions, appropriate for the low-dose, low-effects regions that are of interest here, are chosen for this investigation, and the algebraic properties of the random errors of the assigned shares are discussed. For shares near 0 and 1, the errors are shown to be small and to depend linearly on the value of the shares; the errors are largest for values of the shares near 50%, that is, in the region of almost equal or equal shares.     

The key to winter survival: daily torpor in a small arid-zone marsupial

Mammalian hibernation, which lasts on average for about 6 months, can reduce energy expenditure by >90% in comparison to active individuals. In contrast, the widely held view is that daily torpor reduces energy expenditure usually by about 30%, is employed for a few hours every few days, and often occurs only under acute energetic stress. This interpretation is largely based on laboratory studies, whereas knowledge on daily torpor in the field is scant. We used temperature telemetry to quantify thermal biology and activity patterns of a small arid-zone marsupial, the stripe-faced dunnart Sminthopsis macroura (16.9 g), in the wild and to test the hypothesis that daily torpor is a crucial survival strategy of this species in winter. All individuals entered torpor daily with the exception of a single male that remained normothermic for a single day (torpor on 212 of 213 observation days, 99.5%). Torpor was employed at air temperatures (T _a) ranging from approximately −1°C to 36°C. Dunnarts usually entered torpor during the night and aroused at midday with the daily increase of T _a. Torpor was on average about twice as long (mean 11.0 ± 4.7 h, n = 8) than in captivity. Animals employed sun basking during rewarming, reduced foraging time significantly, and occasionally omitted activity for several days in sequence. Consequently, we estimate that daily torpor in this species can reduce daily energy expenditure by up to 90%. Our study shows that for wild stripe-faced dunnarts daily torpor is an essential mechanism for overcoming energetic challenges during winter and that torpor data obtained in the laboratory can substantially underestimate the ecological significance of daily torpor in the wild.     

Torpor and basking in a small arid zone marsupial

The high energetic cost associated with endothermic rewarming from torpor is widely seen as a major disadvantage of torpor. We tested the hypothesis that small arid zone marsupials, which have limited access to energy in the form of food but ample access to solar radiation, employ basking to facilitate arousal from torpor and reduce the costs of rewarming. We investigated torpor patterns and basking behaviour in free-ranging fat-tailed dunnarts Sminthopsis crassicaudata (10 g) in autumn and winter using small, internal temperature-sensitive transmitters. Torpid animals emerged from their resting sites in cracking soil at ∼1000 h with body temperatures as low as 14.6°C and positioned themselves in the sun throughout the rewarming process. On average, torpor duration in autumn was shorter, and basking was less pronounced in autumn than in winter. These are the first observations of basking during rewarming in S. crassicaudata and only the second direct evidence of basking in a torpid mammal for the reduction of energetic costs during arousal from torpor and normothermia. Our findings suggest that although overlooked in the past, basking may be widely distributed amongst heterothermic mammals. Therefore, the energetic benefits from torpor use in wild animals may currently be underestimated.     

Yearlong hibernation in a marsupial mammal

Many mammals hibernate each year for about 6 months in autumn and winter and reproduce during spring and summer when they are generally not in torpor. I tested the hypothesis that the marsupial pygmy-possum (Cercartetus nanus), an opportunistic nonseasonal hibernator with a capacity for substantial fattening, would continue to hibernate well beyond winter. I also quantified how long they were able to hibernate without access to food before their body fat stores were depleted. Pygmy-possums exhibited a prolonged hibernation season lasting on average for 310 days. The longest hibernation season in one individual lasted for 367 days. For much of this time, despite periodic arousals after torpor bouts of ∼12.5 days, energy expenditure was reduced to only ∼2.5% of that predicted for active individuals. These observations represent the first report on body-fat-fuelled hibernation of up to an entire year and provide new evidence that prolonged hibernation is not restricted to placental mammals living in the cold.     

Wind speed affects prey-catching behaviour in an orb web spider

Wind has previously been shown to influence the location and orientation of spider web sites and also the geometry and material composition of constructed orb webs. We now show that wind also influences components of prey-catching behaviour within the web. A small wind tunnel was used to generate different wind speeds. Araneus diadematus ran more slowly towards entangled Drosophila melanogaster in windy conditions, which took less time to escape the web. This indicates a lower capture probability and a diminished overall predation efficiency for spiders at higher wind speeds. We conclude that spiders’ behaviour of taking down their webs as wind speed increases may therefore not be a response only to possible web damage.