Development of a framework for fire risk assessment using remote sensing and geographic information system technologies

Forest fires play a critical role in landscape transformation, vegetation succession, soil degradation and air quality. Improvements in fire risk estimation are vital to reduce the negative impacts of fire, either by lessen burn severity or intensity through fuel management, or by aiding the natural vegetation recovery using post-fire treatments. This paper presents the methods to generate the input variables and the risk integration developed within the Firemap project (funded under the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology) to map wildland fire risk for several regions of Spain. After defining the conceptual scheme for fire risk assessment, the paper describes the methods used to generate the risk parameters, and presents proposals for their integration into synthetic risk indices. The generation of the input variables was based on an extensive use of geographic information system and remote sensing technologies, since the project was intended to provide a spatial and temporal assessment of risk conditions. All variables were mapped at 1 km² spatial resolution, and were integrated into a web-mapping service system. This service was active in the summer of 2007 for semi-operational testing of end-users. The paper also presents the first validation results of the danger index, by comparing temporal trends of different danger components and fire occurrence in the different study regions.     

Novel Whey Protein Isolate/Polyvinyl Biocomposite for Packaging: Improvement of Mechanical and Water Barrier Properties by Incorporation of Nano-silica

Journal of Polymers and the Environment - The current global proposal for withdrawing polymers with high resistance to degradation and from fossil sources from disposable appliances, as well as the...     

Economic evaluation of measles catch-up and follow-up campaigns in Afghanistan in 2002 and 2003

This paper assesses the cost-effectiveness of, and the return on the investment in, the 2002 catch-up and the 2003 follow-up measles campaigns in Afghanistan from the perspective of the donor. The catch-up campaign targeted nearly 12 million children aged between six months and 12 years, while the follow-up campaign targeted over five million children aged between 9 and 59 months. Both campaigns successfully vaccinated approximately 96 per cent of the respective target populations, and are expected to avert an estimated 301,000 measles deaths over the next 10 years. The average cost per dose of measles vaccine delivered was USD 0.40. The cost per death prevented is USD 23.6, assuming a case fatality rate of 10 per cent and a discount rate of three per cent. With more than 42,000 measles deaths avoided for every one million US dollars spent, the campaigns are an excellent public health investment for precluding childhood mortality in a country affected by a complex emergency.     

Defining Human Disturbance to Shorebirds Using Manager and Scientist Input

Shorebird researchers and land managers recognize human disturbance as a serious threat facing shorebirds. Yet, a common understanding of what defines human disturbance is lacking. To address this issue, we employed the Delphi technique, an iterative consensus-building social science method, to bring scientists and managers together to develop a shared definition of human disturbance and a list of priority human activities that could affect migratory shorebirds. During four iterative rounds, participants with extensive knowledge on human disturbance to shorebirds from varying geographic locations within the Northeastern U.S. worked together to produce a shared understanding. Through analyzing participants’ open-ended responses, we identified important themes for the definition. The participants then refined and ranked these themes through surveys, and the top-ranked themes were used to draft a final definition also reviewed by the participants. Participants provided 94 human activities in response to our request to list and describe all potential human disturbances that affect shorebirds during fall migration. From there, we grouped the activities into 23 categories. Through rating and ranking tasks, participants reduced this list to 12 priority disturbance categories that represent the perceived most significant human disturbances in the Northeastern United States. We also compared responses among the different participant groups (i.e., managers, scientists, and manager/scientists), finding that groups’ responses generally did not significantly differ. While nearly all participants were satisfied with the process, we provide some suggestions to improve it. The outputs of the Delphi technique have informed a best practices guidance document for shorebird management.     

A Mathematical Framework for Resilience: Dynamics,Uncertainties, Strategies,and Recovery Regimes

Resilience is a rehashed concept in natural hazard management—resilience of cities to earthquakes, to floods, to fire, etc. In a word, a system is said to be resilient if there exists a strategy that can drive the system state back to “normal” after any perturbation. What formal flesh can we put on such a malleable notion? We propose to frame the concept of resilience in the mathematical garbs of control theory under uncertainty. Our setting covers dynamical systems both in discrete or continuous time, deterministic or subject to uncertainties. We will say that a system state is resilient if there exists an adaptive strategy such that the generated state and control paths, contingent on uncertainties, lay within an acceptable domain of random processes, called recovery regimes. We point out how such recovery regimes can be delineated thanks to so-called risk measures, making the connection with resilience indicators. Our definition of resilience extends others, be they “à la Holling” or rooted in viability theory. Indeed, our definition of resilience is a form of controllability for whole random processes (regimes), whereas others require that the state values must belong to an acceptable subset of the state set.     

Geochronology of anthropogenic radionuclides in Ribeira Bay sediments, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Ribeira Bay is located approximately 130 km south of the city of Rio de Janeiro and receives discharges of liquid effluent from the Angra dos Reis nuclear power plant (NPP) site, where two pressurized water reactors are located. To test whether the presence of anthropogenic radionuclides in sediments in Ribeira Bay could be correlated to the NPP operations, we sampled seven sediment cores and determined accumulation rates and chronologies. Only one sediment core did not exhibit a superficial mixing layer; this sample was used for dating purposes. Cesium-137 and ²⁰⁷Bi were observed in this sediment profile, but their presence was associated with atmospheric fall-out rather than the nearby NPP. The exponential decay of ²¹⁰Pb concentration with sediment layer depth was verified below a superficial mixing layer for all other sediment cores. Calculated accumulation rates ranged from 1.2 mm y⁻¹ in the inner bay to 6.2 mm y⁻¹ close to its entrance.     

Organochlorine concentrations in franciscana dolphins, Pontoporia blainvillei, from Brazilian waters

Blubber samples were collected from ten franciscana dolphins either incidentally captured in fishing operations or stranded on São Paulo (SP) and Paraná (PR) states littoral, Southeastern and Southern Brazilian coast, respectively. Determination of PCB, DDT and HCB concentrations were performed by capillary gas chromatograph coupled to electron capture detector (ECD). ΣDDT, ΣPCB and HCB concentrations ranged from 264 ng g⁻¹ to 5811 ng g⁻¹ lipid, from 909 ng g⁻¹ to 5849 ng g⁻¹ lipid and from 10 ng g⁻¹ to 61 ng g⁻¹ lipid, respectively. Regarding DDTs, the distribution of the mean percentages decreased in the following order: p,p′-DDE > p,p′-DDD > p,p′-DDT. The ΣDDT/ΣPCB ratio varied between 0.27 and 0.42 in Northern and Central SP coast, while in Southern SP and PR coast the values were 1.6 and 1.9, respectively. Dissimilarities in ΣDDT/ΣPCB ratios point to different sources of organochlorine compounds to franciscana dolphins in the study area. Considering the endocrine disruptive action of organochlorine compounds, the concentrations found in franciscana dolphins from Brazilian waters may represent an additional obstacle to the conservation of this endangered cetacean species.     

Economic valuation of damages originated by major accidents in port areas

Due to special features of ports – variety of activities: storage and loading/unloading of hazardous materials; circulation of ships, lorries and trains; proximity to urban zones; etc. – major accidents can be associated with severe damages. The cost of such accidents must be known to allow for compensation to people and companies. A procedure is presented to estimate the cost of damages suffered by people, equipment and environment. Criteria to assess the cost of damage to people – a controversial issue – are discussed, establishing a method to predict the number of people killed, injured and evacuated. Economic compensation is proposed. Environmental damages are also considered. These include potential damage to the atmosphere, soil, water and fauna. Estimates of the cost of the equipment and buildings affected by the accident are proposed. Finally, an assessment of the loss of profits due to activity breakdown and indirect costs is analysed. The methodology presented can easily be extended to general, inland process and storage sites.     

Impacts of future land use/land cover on wildfire occurrence in the Madrid region (Spain)

This paper assesses the relative importance of socioeconomic factors linked to fire occurrence through the simulation of future land use/land cover (LULC) change scenarios in the Madrid region (Spain). This region is a clear example of the socioeconomic changes that have been occurring over recent decades in the European Mediterranean as well as their impact on LULC and fire occurrence. Using the LULC changes observed between 1990 and 2006 as a reference, future scenarios were run up to 2025 with the conversion of land use and its effects model. Simultaneously, the relationship between LULC arrangement (interfaces) and historical fire occurrence was calculated using logistic regression analysis and used to quantify changes in future fire occurrence due to projected changes in LULC interfaces. The results revealed that it is possible to explain the probability of fire occurrence using only variables obtained from LULC maps, although the explanatory power of the model is low. In this context, border areas between some LULC types are of particular interest (i.e., urban/forest, grassland/forest and agricultural/forest interfaces). Results indicated that expected LULC changes in Euro-Mediterranean regions, particularly given the foreseeable increase in the wildland–urban interface, will substantially increase fire occurrence (up to 155 %). This underlines the importance of future LULC scenarios when planning fire prevention measures.