Incorporating stakeholder decision support needs into an integrated regional Earth system model

A new modeling effort exploring the opportunities, constraints, and interactions between mitigation and adaptation at regional scale is utilizing stakeholder engagement in an innovative approach to guide model development and demonstration, including uncertainty characterization, to effectively inform regional decision making. This project, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), employs structured stakeholder interactions and literature reviews to identify the most relevant adaptation and mitigation alternatives and decision criteria for each regional application of the framework. The information is used to identify important model capabilities and to provide a focus for numerical experiments. This paper presents the stakeholder research results from the first iRESM pilot region. The pilot region includes the Great Lakes Basin in the Midwest portion of the United States as well as other contiguous states. This geographic area (14 states in total) permits cohesive modeling of hydrologic systems while also providing strong gradients in climate, demography, land cover/land use, and energy supply and demand. The results from the stakeholder research indicate that, for this region, iRESM should prioritize addressing adaptation alternatives in the water resources, urban infrastructure, and agriculture sectors, including water conservation, expanded water quality monitoring, altered reservoir releases, lowered water intakes, urban infrastructure upgrades, increased electric power reserves in urban areas, and land use management/crop selection changes. For mitigation in this region, the stakeholder research implies that iRESM should focus on policies affecting the penetration of renewable energy technologies, and the costs and effectiveness of energy efficiency, bioenergy production, wind energy, and carbon capture and sequestration.     

A male gift to its partner? Cyanogenic glycosides in the spermatophore of longwing butterflies (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Heliconius</Emphasis>)

Males of several insect species transfer nuptial gifts to females during mating, typically in the form of a protein-rich spermatophore. In chemically defended species, males could potentially enhance such a gift with chemicals that help protect the female, her eggs, or both. This was shown for lepidopteran species that accumulate pyrrolizidine alkaloids. Most Heliconius butterflies are presumably protected from predators by virtue of de novo synthesized and/or sequestered cyanogenic glycosides. Males of Heliconius species are known to transfer nutritional gifts to the females but whether defensive chemicals could also be transferred is not known. To ascertain whether transfer of cyanogens occurs, we dissected freshly mated females from nine different Heliconius species and analyzed spermatophores for cyanogenic glycosides. We found cyanogens in the spermatophores of all nine species. This is the first time cyanogenic glycosides are reported in the spermatophores of arthropods. We discuss the implications of these findings for Heliconius biology and for other cyanogenic insects as well. We suggest that chemically defended species commonly lace their nuptial gifts with defensive chemicals to improve gift quality.     

Observed LATCH use and misuse characteristics of child restraint systems in seven states

INTRODUCTION: Although the LATCH System (Lower Anchors and Tethers for Children) holds the promise of simplifying the installation of a child restraint system (CRS) to the vehicle's seat, many drivers transporting young children have difficulties using this technology. This paper reports on an observation study of LATCH use and misuse. METHOD: Observations of approximately 1,000 children less than 5 years of age in CRSs, in the back seats of vehicles that were equipped with tether and lower anchors, in seven states. RESULTS: Tethers were used for 51% of the children when the forward-facing CRS had tether straps and the vehicle had tether anchors. Lower anchors were used for 58% of the children when the CRS had lower attachments and the vehicle had lower anchors. The most common tether and lower attachment misuses were loose tether straps (18% of cases) and loose lower attachment installation (30% of the cases), respectively. Vehicle safety belts were used in combination with lower attachments in 20% of all lower anchor installations. CONCLUSION: As more caregivers of young children drive vehicles equipped with LATCH, it will be important to promote the proper installation of CRSs using this technology. LATCH education messages must also emphasize that the lower anchors may not always be the safest choice for CRS attachment -- the safest attachment is the one that results in a tight fit and will be used correctly consistently.     

The News You Choose: news media preferences amplify views on climate change

How do choices among information sources reinforce political differences on topics such as climate change? Environmental sociologists have observed large-scale and long-term impacts from news media and think-tank reports, while experimental science-communication studies detect more immediate effects from variations in supplied information. Applying generalized structural equation modeling to recent survey data, previous work is extended to show that political ideology, education and their interaction predict news media information choices in much the same way they predict opinions about climate change itself. Consequently, media information sources serve as intervening variables that can reinforce and, through their own independent effects, amplify existing beliefs about climate change. Results provide empirical support for selective exposure and biased assimilation as mechanisms widening political divisions on climate change in the United States. The findings fit with the reinforcing spirals framework suggesting partisan media strengthens climate change beliefs which then influences subsequent use of media.     

A context-intensive approach to imputation of missing values in data sets from networks of environmental monitors

Although networks of environmental monitors are constantly improving through advances in technology and management, instances of missing data still occur. Many methods of imputing values for missing data are available, but they are often difficult to use or produce unsatisfactory results. I-Bot (short for “Imputation Robot”) is a context-intensive approach to the imputation of missing data in data sets from networks of environmental monitors. I-Bot is easy to use and routinely produces imputed values that are highly reliable. I-Bot is described and demonstrated using more than 10 years of California data for daily maximum 8-hr ozone, 24-hr PM_2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm), mid-day average surface temperature, and mid-day average wind speed. I-Bot performance is evaluated by imputing values for observed data as if they were missing, and then comparing the imputed values with the observed values. In many cases, I-Bot is able to impute values for long periods with missing data, such as a week, a month, a year, or even longer. Qualitative visual methods and standard quantitative metrics demonstrate the effectiveness of the I-Bot methodology.Implications: Many resources are expended every year to analyze and interpret data sets from networks of environmental monitors. A large fraction of those resources is used to cope with difficulties due to the presence of missing data. The I-Bot method of imputing values for such missing data may help convert incomplete data sets into virtually complete data sets that facilitate the analysis and reliable interpretation of vital environmental data.     

Laboratory investigation of three distinct emissions monitors for hydrochloric acid

The measurement of hydrochloric acid (HCl) on a continuous basis in coal-fired plants is expected to become more important if HCl standards become implemented as part of the Federal Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) standards that are under consideration. For this study, the operational performance of three methods/instruments, including tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy (TDLAS), cavity ring down spectroscopy (CRDS), and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, were evaluated over a range of real-world operating environments. Evaluations were done over an HCl concentration range of 0–25 ppmv and temperatures of 25, 100, and 185 °C. The average differences with respect to temperature were 3.0% for the TDL for values over 2.0 ppmv and 6.9% of all concentrations, 3.3% for the CRDS, and 4.5% for the FTIR. Interference tests for H₂O, SO₂, and CO, CO₂, and NO for a range of concentrations typical of flue gases from coal-fired power plants did not show any strong interferences. The possible exception was an interference from H₂O with the FTIR. The instrument average precision over the entire range was 4.4% for the TDL with better precision seen for concentrations levels of 2.0 ppmv and above, 2.5% for the CRDS, and 3.5% for the FTIR. The minimum detection limits were all on the order of 0.25 ppmv, or less, utilizing the TDL values with a 5-m path. Zero drift was found to be 1.48% for the TDL, 0.88% for the CRDS, and 1.28% for the FTIR.

Implications: This study provides an evaluation of the operational performance of three methods/instruments, including TDL absorption spectroscopy (TDLAS), cavity ring down spectroscopy (CRDS), and FTIR spectroscopy, for the measurement of hydrochloric acid (HCl) over a range of real-world operating environments. The results showed good instrument accuracy as a function of temperature and no strong interferences for flue gases typical to coal-fired power plants. The results show that these instruments would be viable for the measurement of HCl in coal-fired plants if HCl standards become implemented as part of the Federal Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) standards that are under consideration.     

A review of the drivers of 200 years of wetland degradation in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam

This paper examines the anthropogenic factors that have contributed to wetland loss and degradation in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam from 1816 AD to present. Our analysis is framed over five historical periods and highlights the role that seven drivers of wetland degradation have played in the Mekong Delta, including: resettlement and economic development policies; population growth and urbanization; demand for food and reclaiming wetland for agriculture; construction of canals construction of dykes flood protection systems; expansion of travel systems (waterway and roads); and exploitation of wetland natural resources. Of these, government policies for resettlement and economic development seem to have had the greatest impact on wetland loss and degradation in the Mekong Delta throughout the course of history. As a result of these factors, only 0.068 million hectares of the original 4.0 million hectares of the Mekong Delta currently remains as primary swamp forest ecosystem. History suggests that future management of the Mekong Delta should take a holistic approach that includes a better understanding of the implications of past decisions on wetland loss.     

Outsourcing,trade, technology,and greenhouse gas emissions

Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - U.S. output has steadily outpaced the rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the past several decades. The decoupling of these two trends...     

Evaluation of the National Land Cover Database for Hydrologic Applications in Urban and Suburban Baltimore,Maryland1

Smith, Monica Lipscomb, Weiqi Zhou, Mary Cadenasso, Morgan Grove, and Lawrence E. Band, 2010. Evaluation of the National Land Cover Database for Hydrologic Applications in Urban and Suburban Baltimore, Maryland. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):429-442. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00412.x Abstract: We compared the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2001 land cover, impervious, and canopy data products to land cover data derived from 0.6-m resolution three-band digital imagery and ancillary data. We conducted this comparison at the 1 km², 9 km², and gauged watershed scales within the Baltimore Ecosystem Study to determine the usefulness and limitations of the NLCD in heterogeneous urban to exurban environments for the determination of land-cover information for hydrological applications. Although the NLCD canopy and impervious data are significantly correlated with the high-resolution land-cover dataset, both layers exhibit bias at <10 and >70% cover. The ratio of total impervious area and connected impervious area differs along the range of percent imperviousness – at low percent imperviousness, the NLCD is a better predictor of pavement alone, whereas at higher percent imperviousness, buildings and pavement together more resemble NLCD impervious estimates. The land-cover composition and range for each NLCD urban land category (developed open space, low-intensity, medium-intensity, and high-intensity developed) is more variable in areas of low-intensity development. Fine-vegetation land-cover/lawn area is incorporated in a large number of land use categories with no ability to extract this land cover from the NLCD. These findings reveal that the NLCD may yield important biases in urban, suburban, and exurban hydrologic analyses where land cover is characterized by fine-scale spatial heterogeneity.