Parental risk perceptions of childhood pedestrian road safety

Problem: Pedestrian injury is a major hazard to the health of children in most developed countries, including Australia. In a previous study it was found that parental road risk perception is a significant factor associated with their modeling of safe behavior as pedestrians. This study aimed to investigate factors that affect parental road risk perception. Method: This cross-sectional population-based randomized telephone survey aimed to study factors associated with risk perception on pedestrian road safety among parents with young children aged 4–12 years. Results: Five factors were found to be significantly associated with parental risk perception. They included age of child, sex of parent, employment of parent, living environment, and previous injury experience. The results suggested that the age of the child contributed greatest to the variance explained by the regression model. However, other factors remained significant even after adjusting for each other. Discussion: Results were discussed in light of the design and development of childhood pedestrian road safety campaigns. Impact on industry: Parental risk perceptions determine their safe road modeling behavior. In this study, significant factors that affect parental road risk perception have been identified. The information obtained can be used in the design of road safety programs that aim at changing the road risk perception of parents.     

ACCURACY AND PRECISION OF NRCS MODELS FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: In the last 30 years, the National Resource Conservation Service's TR‐55 and TR‐20 models have seen a dramatic increase in use for stormwater management purposes. This paper reviews some of the data that were originally used to develop these models and tests how well the models estimate annual series peak runoff rates for the same watersheds using longer historical data record lengths. The paper also explores differences between TR‐55 and TR‐20 peak runoff rate estimates and time of concentration methods. It was found that of the 37 watersheds tested, 25 were either over‐ or under‐predicting the actual historical watershed runoff rates by more than 30 percent. The results of this study indicate that these NRCS models should not be used to model small wooded watersheds less than 20 acres. This would be especially true if the watershed consisted of an area without a clearly defined outlet channel. This study also supports the need for regulators to allow educated hydrologists to alter pre‐packaged model parameters or results more easily than is currently permitted.     

RESEARCH: Land Use Characteristics and Water Quality: A Methodology for Valuing of Forested Buffers

In this study, water quality and basin characteristics data from different basins of the Fish River basin, Baldwin County, Alabama, were used to develop a valuation model. This valuation model is based on the effectiveness of “contributing zones” identified and delineated using methods described by Basnyat and others (Environmental Management]1999] 23(4):539–549). The “contributing zone” delineation model suggests that depending on soil permeability, soil moisture, depth to water table, slope, and vegetation, buffer widths varying from 16 m to 104 m must be maintained to assimilate or detain more than 90% of the nitrate passing through the buffers. The economic model suggests the value of retiring lands (to create the buffers) varies from $0 to $3067 per ha, depending on the types of crops currently grown. The total value of retiring all areas identified by the contributing zone model is $1,125,639 for the study area. This land value will then form the basis for estimates of the costs of land management options for improving (or maintaining) water quality throughout the study area.     

Water movement within the unsaturated zone in four agricultural areas of the United States

Millions of tons of agricultural fertilizer and pesticides are applied annually in the USA. Due to the potential for these chemicals to migrate to groundwater, a study was conducted in 2004 using field data to calculate water budgets, rates of groundwater recharge and times of water travel through the unsaturated zone and to identify factors that influence these phenomena. Precipitation was the only water input at sites in Indiana and Maryland; irrigation accounted for about 80% of total water input at sites in California and Washington. Recharge at the Indiana site (47.5 cm) and at the Maryland site (31.5 cm) were equivalent to 51 and 32%, respectively, of annual precipitation and occurred between growing seasons. Recharge at the California site (42.3 cm) and Washington site (11.9 cm) occurred in response to irrigation events and was about 29 and 13% of total water input, respectively. Average residence time of water in the unsaturated zone, calculated using a piston-flow approach, ranged from less than 1 yr at the Indiana site to more than 8 yr at the Washington site. Results of bromide tracer tests indicate that at three of the four sites, a fraction of the water applied at land surface may have traveled to the water table in less than 1 yr. The timing and intensity of precipitation and irrigation were the dominant factors controlling recharge, suggesting that the time of the year at which chemicals are applied may be important for chemical transport through the unsaturated zone.     

Developing an empirical model of phytoplankton primary production: a neural network case study

We describe the development of a neural network model for estimating primary production of phytoplankton. Data from an enriched estuary in the eastern United States, Chesapeake Bay, were used to train, validate and test the model. Two error backpropagation multilayer perceptrons were trained: a simpler one (3-5-1) and a more complex one (12-5-1). Both neural networks outperformed conventional empirical models, even though only the latter, which exploits a larger suite of predictive variables, provided truly accurate outputs. The application of this neural network model is thoroughly discussed and the results of a sensitivity analysis are also presented.     

Day-of-week patterns of particulate matter and its chemical components at selected sites in California

This paper analyzes day-of-week variations in concentrations of particulate matter (PM) in California. Because volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) are not only precursors of ozone (O3) but also of secondary PM, it is useful to know whether the variations by day of week in these precursors are also evident in PM data. Concentrations of PM < or = 10 microm (PM10) and < or = 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) were analyzed. PM concentrations exhibit a general weekly pattern, with the maximum occurring late in the workweek and the minimum occurring on weekends (especially Sunday); however, this pattern does not prevail at all sites and areas. PM nitrate (NO3-) data from Size Selective Inlet (SSI) samplers in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) tend to be somewhat lower on weekends compared with weekdays. During 1988-1991, the weekend average was lower than the weekday average at 8 of 13 locations, with an average decrease of 1%. During 1997-2000, the weekend average was lower than the weekday average at 10 of 13 locations, with an average decrease of 6%. The weekend averages are generally lower than weekday averages for sulfates, organic carbon, and elemental carbon. Because heavy-duty trucks typically represent a major source of elemental carbon, the weekend decrease in heavy-duty truck traffic may also result in a decrease in ambient elemental carbon concentrations.     

Multiseasonal management of an agricultural pest II: the economic optimization problem

The problem of selecting a pesticide application strategy in the face of increasing resistance to the pesticide in the pest population is dealt with. The grower in this situation may do better by sacrificing a portion of the present crop in return for a reduced resistance to future applications. The model presented represents an attempt to forge a compromise between excessive complexity, rendering the model difficult to study, and excessive simplicity, rendering the model useless. The effects of timing of the application of the pesticide within the season are discussed. The principle conclusions are the following: (i) If immigration of pests from refugia is significant then proper timing of the application of pesticide may be used to help alleviate resistance growth. (ii) Resistance growth may best be reduced by spraying earlier than what would otherwise be the best time. (iii) The value of the discount rate (and of the time horizon) has a profound effect on the nature of the optimal policy.     

Male dominance,female choice and male copulatory behavior in two species of voles (Microtus ochrogaster and Microtus montanus)

Summary Female preferences for dominant males in prairie and montane voles were analyzed in two different test situations. In the first, prairie vole females preferentially spent time in proximity to dominant versus subordinate males which were housed behind a wire mesh screen. In a two-male tether test prairie voles females both preferentially associated and mated with dominant males. Montane voles, on the other hand, showed no preference in either test situation. The baseline copulatory behavior of naive montane vole males which became dominant differed significantly from those which became subordinate; no such differences were evident in the baseline copulatory behavior of naive praire voles. One hour following dominance testing, there was no difference evident between dominant and subordinate males of either species but there was a general facilitation of male copulatory behavior in both species, the effect being of greater magnitude in montane voles.