A permutation-based combination of sign tests for assessing habitat selection

The analysis of habitat selection in radio-tagged animals is approached by comparing the portions of use against the portions of availability observed for each habitat type. Since data are linearly dependent with singular variance-covariance matrices, standard multivariate statistical tests cannot be applied. To bypass the problem, compositional data analysis is customarily performed via log-ratio transform of sample observations. The procedure is criticized in this paper, emphasizing the several drawbacks which may arise from the use of compositional analysis. An alternative nonparametric solution is proposed in the framework of multiple testing. The habitat use is assessed separately for each habitat type by means of the sign test performed on the original observations. The resulting p values are combined in an overall test statistic whose significance is determined permuting sample observations. The theoretical findings of the paper are checked by simulation studies. Applications to case studies previously considered in literature are discussed.     

Influence of climate on grape production and wine quality in the Rías Baixas, north-western Spain

Climate exerts an important role on grape production and wine quality. For one of the main areas protected under the denomination of origin Rías Baixas, in Galicia, Spain, we explore the relationships among grape production, wine quality, rainfall and temperature for the period 1987–2005. The influence of climatic variability was analysed in terms of the relationship between the productivity of the grapevines and the main meteorological teleconnection patterns affecting the North Atlantic region. We also investigate the daily variation in atmospheric circulation through the study of the influence of weather types derived using an automated daily classification. We consider three bioclimatic indices for viticultural zoning, Winkler and Huglin, and the hydrothermic index of Branas, Bernon and Levadoux. While significant trends were identified in the Winkler and Huglin indices, there were no significant trends in the Branas, Bernon and Levadoux index, for the period 1958–2005. For the coming decades, using the scenario A1B evaluated by the regional climate models used in the ENSEMBLES project, the positive trends of Winkler and Huglin indices continue, while Branas, Bernon and Levadoux implies a negative trend. In all cases, these trends induce significant changes in the viticulture of the region.     

Ontogenetic and sex-specific differences in density-dependent habitat selection of a marine fish population

The spatial dynamics of species are the result of complex interactions between density-independent and density-dependent sources of variability. Disentangling these two sources of variability has challenged ecologists working in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Using a novel spatially explicit statistical model, we tested for the presence of density-independent and density-dependent habitat selection in yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera) in the eastern Bering Sea. We found specificities in the density-dependent processes operating across ontogeny and particularly with gender. Density-dependent habitat expansion occurred primarily in females, and to a lesser degree in males. These patterns were especially evident in adult stages, while juvenile stages of both sexes exhibited a mix of different dynamics. Association of yellowfin sole with substrate type also varied by sex and to a lesser degree with size, with large females distributed over a wider range of substrates than males. Moreover, yellowfin sole expanded northward as cold subsurface waters retracted in summer, suggesting high sensitivity to arctic warming. Our findings illustrate how marginal habitats can play an important role in buffering density-dependent habitat expansion, with direct implications for resource management. Our spatially explicit modeling approach is effective in evaluating density-dependent spatial dynamics, and can easily be used to test similar hypotheses from a variety of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems.     

A Bayesian assessment of the effect of highway bypasses in Iowa on crashes and crash rate

Introduction

A common contention is that the construction of highway bypasses negatively impacts the economy of local communities by reducing pass-by traffic for businesses. However, as access to specific business' account records is limited, this impact is difficult to quantify. Another common contention is that bypasses contribute to a reduction in overall crashes in the community and in the surrounding areas. Even though a large number of bypasses have been constructed in the State of Iowa over the past several years, their actual impact in terms of traffic safety has not been quantified.

Objectives

This study seeks answers to the following questions: (a) Are bypasses in Iowa associated with a reduction in crash frequencies and crash rates on the bypassed highway? (b) Do bypasses in Iowa introduce a reduction of overall crash frequencies and rates or do they merely shift crashes from the highways through the communities to the bypasses with no significant overall reduction?

Method

We obtained crash information from the Iowa DOT at 19 sites on which a bypass was constructed sometime during the past 23 years. We also obtained the same information at six sites used as comparison sites on which no bypasses were constructed at least until 2005. We them employed a Bayesian approach to estimating the association between the construction of the bypass and crash rates, while also accounting for other factors.

Results

The construction of bypasses in Iowa is associated with a significant increase in traffic safety both on the main road through town and on the combined main road and bypass roadway.     

Estimating wild boar density in hunting areas by a probabilistic sampling of drive counts

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - The evaluation of wild boar density in a hunting district can be performed by accurate drive counts of boars within the drive areas assigned to each...     

Worldwide cases of water pollution by emerging contaminants: a review

Environmental Chemistry Letters - Water contamination by emerging contaminants is increasing in the context of rising urbanization, industrialization, and agriculture production. Emerging...     

Spatial anatomy of species survival: effects of predation and climate-driven environmental variability

The majority of survival analyses focus on temporal scales. Consequently, there is a limited understanding of how species survival varies over space and, ultimately, how spatial variability in the environment affects the temporal dynamics of species abundance. Using data from the Barents Sea, we study the spatiotemporal variability of the juvenile Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) survival. We develop an index of spatial survival based on changes of juvenile cod distribution through their first winter of life (from age-0 to age-1) and study its variability in relation to biotic and abiotic factors. Over the 25 years analyzed (1980-2004), we found that, once the effect of passive drift due to dominant currents is accounted for, the area where age-0 cod survival was lowest coincided with the area of highest abundance of older cod. Within this critical region, the survival of age-0 cod was negatively affected by its own abundance, by that of older cod, and by bottom depth. Furthermore, during cold years, age-0 cod survival increased in the eastern and coldest portion of the examined area, which was typically avoided by older conspecifics. Based on these results we propose that within the examined area top-down mechanisms and predation-driven density dependence can strongly affect the spatial pattern of age-0 cod survival. Climate-related variables can also influence the spatial survival of age-0 cod by affecting their distribution and that of their predators. Results from these and similar studies, focusing on the spatial variability of survival rates, can be used to characterize species habitat quality of marine renewable resources.     

Integrating intraseasonal grassland dynamics in cross-scale distribution modeling to support waterbird recovery plans

Despite much discussion about the utility of remote sensing for effective conservation, the inclusion of these technologies in species recovery plans remains largely anecdotal. We developed a modeling approach for the integration of local, spatially measured ecosystem functional dynamics into a species distribution modeling (SDM) framework in which other ecologically relevant factors are modeled separately at broad scales. To illustrate the approach, we incorporated intraseasonal water-vegetation dynamics into a cross-scale SDM for the Common Snipe (Gallinago gallinago), which is highly dependent on water and vegetation dynamics. The Common Snipe is an Iberian grassland waterbird characteristic of European agricultural meadows and a member of one of the most threatened bird guilds. The intraseasonal dynamics of water content of vegetation were measured using the standard deviation of the normalized difference water index time series computed from bimonthly images of the Sentinel-2 satellite. The recovery plan for the Common Snipe in Galicia (northwestern Iberian Peninsula) provided an opportunity to apply our modeling framework. Model accuracy in predicting the species’ distribution at a regional scale (resulting from integration of downscaled climate projections with regional habitat–topographic suitability models) was very high (area under the curve [AUC] of 0.981 and Boyce's index of 0.971). Local water-vegetation dynamic models, based exclusively on Sentinel-2 imagery, were good predictors (AUC of 0.849 and Boyce's index of 0.976). The predictive power improved (AUC of 0.92 and Boyce's index of 0.98) when local model predictions were restricted to areas identified by the continental and regional models as priorities for conservation. Our models also performed well (AUC of 0.90 and Boyce's index of 0.93) when projected to updated water-vegetation conditions. Our modeling framework enabled incorporation of key ecosystem processes closely related to water and carbon cycles while accounting for other factors ecologically relevant to endangered grassland waterbirds across different scales, allowed identification of priority areas for conservation, and provided an opportunity for cost-effective recovery planning by monitoring management effectiveness from space.     

Armaments and ornaments in the rock sparrow: a possible dual utility of a carotenoid-based feather signal

Females often base their mating preferences on male sexual secondary traits that are used to settle contests among males. Such traits are likely to be honest indicators of male quality if they are constantly used during costly male–male agonistic interactions. Carotenoid signals have been shown to work as a handicap because they are costly to produce. However, the role of carotenoids as “honest” signals during male contests is less clear, and it is not known whether a carotenoid-based trait can serve in both male–male competition and female choice. In this study, we studied the dual function of a carotenoid feather ornament in the rock sparrow (Petronia petronia), a bird species in which both sexes have a yellow throat patch whose size positively correlates with phenotypic measures. First, we investigated, in a field study, whether the size of a male’s yellow patch correlates with his ability to acquire a territory. Second, we tested the signal function of the yellow patch in two male–male interaction in captivity experiments. Finally, we measured female preference for males differing in throat patch size in a mate choice experiment. Our experiments revealed that the size of a male’s throat patch positively correlated with the number of nest boxes he was able to defend. Moreover, in controlled conditions, males with relatively large yellow patches had earlier access to food than those with small patches. Also, in an experiment in which a dummy rock sparrow with an experimentally manipulated yellow patch was positioned near a feeder, latency to feed by focal birds positively correlated with dummy patch size. Lastly, in a dichotomous mate choice experiment, females showed a proximity preference for males whose patch was experimentally enlarged. Taken together, these results suggest that the same carotenoid feather signal may be used in both male–male competition and female choice in this passerine bird.