Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change

Widespread extinction is a predicted ecological consequence of global warming. Extinction risk under climate change scenarios is a function of distribution breadth. Focusing on trees and birds of the eastern United States, we used joint climate and environment models to examine fit and climate change vulnerability as a function of distribution breadth. We found that extinction vulnerability increases with decreasing distribution size. We also found that model fit decreases with decreasing distribution size, resulting in high prediction uncertainty among narrowly distributed species. High prediction uncertainty creates a conservation dilemma in that excluding these species under-predicts extinction risk and favors mistaken inaction on global warming. By contrast, including narrow endemics results in over-predicting extinction risk and promotes mistaken inaction on behalf of individual species prematurely considered doomed to extinction.     

The role of wetlands in the chromophoric dissolved organic matter release and its relation to aquatic ecosystems optical properties. A case of study: Katonga and Bunjako Bays (Victoria Lake; Uganda)

Chromophoric Dissolved Organic Matter (CDOM) is an important component in freshwater and marine ecosystems and plays direct and indirect role in biogeochemical cycles. CDOM originates from the degradation process of organic materials, usually macrophytes and planktons. The present work examines the importance of wetland derived CDOM on the optical and bio-optical properties of two bays of Lake Victoria (Uganda, Africa). This was achieved by determining the attenuation and extinction coefficients of filtered and unfiltered water samples from two equatorial bays on the Ugandan coastline of Lake Victoria. Katonga Bay is a wetland lined bay that receives water from the Katonga river, while Bunjako Bay is an outer bay between Katonga Bay and Lake Victoria. The results showed that attenuation was highest in Katonga Bay and the role of CDOM is most dominant near the river inlet. The quantity and quality of CDOM is extremely different in the two bays: in Katonga Bay it is possible to hypothesize a terrestrial origin of CDOM (transported by the wetland river). On the contrary, in Bunjako Bay, spectral measurements of absorption indicate a modified CDOM and/or alternative CDOM source. The terrestrial CDOM in Katonga Bay is more capable of absorbing harmful UV radiation than the CDOM present in the Bunjako Bay. The resulting optical environment in the former bay presented a water column with a very limited penetration of harmful UV radiation, while a higher penetration was observed in the Bunjako Bay.     

Critical Loads and Exceedances of Acid Deposition and Associated Forest Growth in the Northern Hardwood and BorealConiferous Forests in Québec,Canada

We used the Québec forest monitoring network (`Réseaud'Étude et de Surveillance des Écosystèmes Forestiers' or RESEF)along with its atmospheric monitoring stations to assess criticalS and N loads and their combined soil acidification exceedancesfor natural ecosystems of the northern hardwood and borealconiferous forests in Québec, Canada. Critical loads (CL) forforest soil acidification were calculated using the simple mass-balance (SMB) approach and with the steady-state PROFILE model.Atmospheric deposition rates for water, S, N, Ca, Mg, Na, and K,for the years 1989–1993, and detailed, plot-specific forest andsoil characteristics were used as input. The SMB model alsorequired information regarding nutrient uptake and storage in theaboveground woody biomass. The CL calculations indicated that,from the 31 RESEF plots, 18 received atmospheric acidic inputs inexcess of their CL (55 and 61% of the hardwood and coniferousplots, respectively). The range of CL exceedance varied from 60to 470 eq ha^-1 yr^-1 for the hardwood stands, and from 10to 590 eq ha^-1 yr^-1 for the coniferous stands. The standswith CL exceedance were mainly located in the western and centralpart of the province. Stand growth associated with exceedanceclass of acidity was determined using the RESEF plots along withselected permanent forest survey plots having similar sitecharacteristics, but for which longer growth records wereavailable. We found a significant negative correlation betweenforest growth rates and critical soil acidification exceedancefor both the northern hardwood and the boreal conifer sites.Specifically, plots with critical load exceedances were found tohave a growth reduction of about 30% during the 1974–1982 andthe 1972–1990 measurement (plots with no soil acidificationexceedance served as a control). While this correlation is notnecessarily causal, it is nevertheless consistent with theexpectation that increased losses of soil base cations on accountof increased soil acidification should and could lead todeteriorating forest health conditions.     

Water management strategies against toxic Microcystis blooms in the Dutch delta.

To prevent flooding of the Dutch delta, former estuaries have been impounded by the building of dams and sluices. Some of these water bodies, however, experience major ecological problems. One of the problem areas is the former Volkerak estuary that was turned into a freshwater lake in 1987. From the early 1990s onward, toxic Microcystis blooms dominate the phytoplankton of the lake every summer. Two management strategies have been suggested to suppress these harmful algal blooms: flushing the lake with fresh water or reintroducing saline water into the lake. This study aims at an advance assessment of these strategies through the development of a mechanistic model of the population dynamics of Microcystis. To calibrate the model, we monitored the benthic and pelagic Microcystis populations in the lake during two years. Field samples of Microcystis were incubated in the laboratory to estimate growth and mortality rates as functions of light, temperature, and salinity. Recruitment and sedimentation rates were measured in the lake, using traps, to quantify benthic-pelagic coupling of the Microcystis populations. The model predicts that flushing with fresh water will suppress Microcystis blooms when the current flushing rate is sufficiently increased. Furthermore, the inlet of saline water will suppress Microcystis blooms for salinities exceeding 14 g/L. Both management options are technically feasible. Our study illustrates that quantitative ecological knowledge can be a helpful tool guiding large-scale water management.     

Analysis of PFAAs in American alligators part 2: Potential dietary exposure of South Carolina hunters from recreationally harvested alligator meat

Exposure to perfluorinated alkyl acids (PFAAs) has been linked to many harmful health effects including reproductive disorders, developmental delays, and altered liver and kidney function. Most human exposure to environmental contaminants, including PFAAs, occurs through consumption of contaminated food or drinking water. This study uses PFAA data from meat samples collected from recreationally harvested American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in South Carolina to assess potential dietary exposure of hunters and their families to PFAAs. Consumption patterns were investigated using intercept surveys of 23 hunters at a wild game meat processor. An exposure scenario using the average consumption frequency, portion size, and median perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) concentration in alligator meat from all hunt units found the daily dietary exposure to be 2.11 ng/kg body weight per day for an adult human. Dietary PFOS exposure scenarios based on location of harvest suggested the highest daily exposure occurs with alligator meat from the Middle Coastal hunt unit in South Carolina. Although no samples were found to exceed the recommended threshold for no consumption of PFOS found in Minnesota state guidelines, exposure to a mixture of PFAAs found in alligator meat and site-specific exposures based on harvest location should be considered in determining an appropriate guideline for vulnerable populations potentially exposed to PFAAs through consumption of wild alligator meat.     

Denitrification and availability of carbon and nitrogen in a well-drained pasture soil amended with particulate organic carbon

A well-drained soil in N-fertilized dairy pasture was amended with particulate organic carbon (POC), either sawdust or coarse woody mulch, and sampled every 4 wk for a year to test the hypothesis that the addition of POC would increase denitrification activity by increasing the number of microsites where denitrification occurred. Overall mean denitrifying enzyme activity (DEA), on a gravimetric basis, was 100% greater for the woody mulch treatment and 50% greater for the sawdust treatment compared with controls, indicating the denitrifying potential of the soil was enhanced. Despite differences in DEA, no difference in denitrification rate, as measured by the acetylene block technique, was detected among treatments, with an average annual N loss of ～22 kg N ha yr Soil water content overall was driving denitrification in this well-drained soil as regression of the natural log of volumetric soil water content (VWC) against denitrification rate was highly significant ( = 0.74, < 0.001). Addition of the amendments, however, had significant effects on the availability of both C and N. An additional 20 to 40 kg N ha was stored in POC-amended treatments as a result of increases in the microbial biomass. Basal respiration, as a measure of available C, was 400% greater than controls in the sawdust treatment and 250% greater than controls in the mulch. Net N mineralization, however, was significantly lower in the sawdust treatment, resulting in significantly lower nitrate N levels than in the control. We attribute the lack of measured response in denitrification rate to the high temporal variability in denitrification and suggest that diffusion of nitrate may ultimately have limited denitrification in the amended treatments. Our data indicate that manipulation of denitrification by addition of POC may be possible, particularly when nitrate levels are high, but quantifying differences in the rate of denitrification is difficult because of the temporal nature of the process (particularly the complex interaction of N availability and soil water content).     

Grass feedbacks on fire stabilize savannas

Savannas commonly consist of a discontinuous cover of overstory trees and a groundcover of grasses. Savanna models have previously demonstrated that vegetation feedbacks on fire frequency can limit the density of overstory trees, thereby maintaining savannas. Positive feedbacks of either savanna trees alone or trees and grasses together on fire frequency have been shown to result in a stable savanna equilibrium. Grass feedbacks on fire frequency, in contrast, have resulted in stable equilibria in either a grassland or forest state, but not in a savanna. These results, however, were derived from a system of differential equations that assumes that fire occurrence is strictly deterministic and that vegetation losses due to fire are continuous in time. We develop an alternative formulation of the grass-fire feedback model that assumes that fires are discrete and occur stochastically in time to examine the influence of these assumptions on the predicted state of the system. We show that incorporating fire as a discrete event can produce a recurring temporal refuge in which both grass and trees co-occur in a stable, bounded savanna. In our model, tree abundance is limited without invoking demographic bottlenecks in the transition from fire-sensitive to fire-resistant life history stages. An increasing strength of grass feedback on fire results in regular, predictable fires, which suggests that the system can also be modeled using a set of difference equations. We implement this discrete system using modified Leslie/Gower difference equations and demonstrate the existence of a bounded savanna state in this model framework. Our results confirm the potential for grass feedbacks to result in stable savannas, and indicate the importance of modeling fire as a discrete event rather than as a loss rate that is continuous in time.